COT

Hello dear traders! 

●  So brave Bears 🐻 started in S&P 500 and lost everything by the end of the week

●  What will be next? now it is difficult to predict.

Nasdaq made an impudent bullish workout of the support 👏 

Hello traders!

The time has come! Sell in May and RUN away. 🏃‍♂️

Today I want to give you a long-term forecast.

I have a Bearish view on all American Indices S&P500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), and Dow Jones (YM).

● I never saw such a big amount of Bid HFTs with no one ASK, even a little!!! 😱 

● The market made a breakout of the important resistance level on the daily chart and all the Bear passengers are exhausted to wait falling

Good evening, traders! 

Today observed all the assets, but exceptionally don’t see potential understandable scenarios 🤷‍♂️ Everything went on Thursday and Friday.

🔹 British pound this week showed us how amazing involvement in buys looks like. (Watch) 

How long does it take for the pattern to be created and how quickly should a decision be made on it, — only 15 minutes after the formation of HFT volumes. So fast reaction from the market makers limit orders.

Our mind is rather inert and in good situations, he especially begins to hesitate “Can we wait a little more, maybe a little more to see what will be around the corner?” As a result, the next 15-minute candle already changes the risk-reward ratio by 2 times! Not in our favor...

An excellent quote by Linda Raschke fits here: “In trading, as in fencing, there are either quick or dead.”

Markets operations are based more on psychology than on fundamentals, says El Weiss in Jack Schwager's book “The New Market Wizards”. “Markets are completely based on human psychology, and by charting markets, you are only converting human psychology into graphical form.”

​​​​​​​Good evening, traders! 👋

Today I decided to make a video market forecast highlighting situations in British Pound (6B), Aussi (6A), Coffee (KC), Crude and Brent Oil (CL, BR).

Also measured possible continuations of scenarios that I executed in my previous Sunday forecast.

This 11-minute video is for you today 

Thank you very much for watching.

Have a good week!

Good evening, TVT traders! 

Today I have a few forecasts for you in Swiss Frank (6S), Dow Jones (YM), and Crude Oil (CL).

🔹 Swiss Frank (6S) has enough information to make a forecast that the price will go to test the zone 1.1150, where liquidity is concentrated. Despite we see that the price closed above commercial resistance, where hedge funds added their long position by 30% for the third week in a row. OI increased by +6,7%. Also, the trading week closed above technical resistances on the 15M charts. But no energy for further rising, and in such case downside movement is more probable. (Watch)

🔹 As for Dow Jones (YM) (Watch)

Good Sunday, traders!

Let's measure the market situation after this volatile week.

▪️ Last time we expected falling in Euro. This occurred not on Monday-Tuesday, but on Wednesday we had a downside reaction on 400 futures points. But then the market again returned to balance and returned almost all weekly losses. (Watch) 



I think that it will continue falling, but of course Till FED by the 22 of March the market will be in a state of uncertainty and low liquidity. 

▪️ Opinion about the grain market, particularly Corn (ZC) (Watch) 

Good evening, traders!👋

Today I want to measure a Canadian Dollar (6C). 

▪️ So we see how the price came to the solid technical support on the daily chart. (watch) 

But look at significant block trades on the options market passed on strike 0,74. 

▪️ Moreover, on the 15M chart, we also came to double strong volumetric support zone. (watch) 

Good Sunday, traders!

According to the latest news from CFTC, fresh reports on a regular 3 days delay basis we will receive only after the middle of March. (( 

Until then they will recover for unreleased reports.

“Following the ION cyber-related incident, reporting firms are continuing to experience some issues submitting timely and accurate data to the CFTC. As a result, the weekly Commitments of Traders (CoT) report that normally would have been published on Friday, February 17, will be postponed.

“CFTC staff intends to resume publishing the CoT report as early as Friday, February 24, 2023. Staff will begin with the CoT report that was originally scheduled to be published on Friday, February 3, 2023. Thereafter, staff intends to sequentially issue the missed CoT reports in an expedited manner, subject to reporting firms submitting accurate and complete data.  Staff anticipates that, pending the timely, accurate and complete submission of backlogged data by reporting firms to the CFTC, these missed CoT reports will be published by mid-March.  After that, CoT report publication will resume its usual weekly schedule.”

For the next week, I don’t see some exciting pictures for today. Moreover, on Sunday we have Holyday in US and Canada.

Only Cocoa (CC) shows us interesting backgrounds for correction. (Watch) 

We need more movements to discover something interesting the next week.

Have a good Sunday!

Good day traders, we still don’t have CFTC report because of the impact of the cyber-related incident at ION is being mitigated.

Multiple reporting firms continue to experience technical issues that prevent submission of timely and accurate data to the CFTC. As a result, the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report will continue to be delayed until the receipt and validation of all reportable data is completed.

I already started to miss this data, as it really gives a better market understanding.

Nevertheless, I want to share with you with few engaging scenarios which may realize in the next week.

Natural Gas (NG) has a chance to reach 3$ target per MMBtu (watch)

We see that all the cumulative delta is negative, but the price grows and fixed above 2.5 technical and round number structure.

But to my mind everything is too sweet, that's why I think that the market will activate the liquidity under the level and only then will go to fair value. (watch) 

Such enforcement of QD on Friday is not an empty sound.

Good afternoon, traders!

S&P 500 (ES)

The price closed below the huge Ask tick chain near 4100, not achieved to the supply zone, and made a fast pullback. I see shorting opportunity, that the price will reach the 4020 price level.

Silver (SI)

On Silver vice-versa we see a Bid tick imbalance and some accurate algorithmic purchases on Friday according to the cumulative delta quantitative (CDQ) which diverges with the volume delta (CD). The price is coiling in the long-range during last 2 months and has a high probability to move toward the upper boundary and break it.

Copper (HG)

Copper made a peculiar squeeze of buyers, created a Bid tick imbalance, and bounced back from a commercial level into the range. Hedge funds continue aggressively buying the asset, increasing their longs by 18% with the OI increase by 6%.

We see a very strong divergence between CDQ and CD, clear absorption of stoploss liquidity with algorithms.

So I am very bullish here.