Es

Upside target lvls -2116, 2117.
Downside target lvls -2111, 2108, 2096
Price balanced.

Предпочтительным трейдом является продажа 2116 к 2110 или покупка 2110 towards 2116-2117.
Sentiment still neutral, календарные факторы в пользу снижения против big picture bullish bias towards 2140 and 2159.  


Kind regards. 

UPD: SLD 2117 towards 2110; st 2127. 



UPD: 2105 to appear on the radar below 2114. 

Upside target lvls — 2115, 2112.
Downside target lvls -2108, 2105, 2096
Price balanced.

At The World Affairs Council of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

June 6, 2016

Current Conditions and the Outlook for the U.S. Economy

I am delighted to be with you today. I will discuss recent economic developments, the outlook, and their implications for monetary policy. My message will be largely favorable, although recent developments have been mixed. Most importantly, the economy has registered considerable progress over the past several years toward the Federal Reserve's goals of maximum employment and price stability, and, as I will explain, there are good reasons to expect that we will advance further toward those goals. The news from the labor market over the past year has been generally good, with significant job gains, the unemployment rate declining below 5 percent, rising household incomes, and tentative signs of faster wage growth. At the same time, recent signs of a slowdown in job creation bear close watching. Inflation has been lower than our objective of 2 percent, but I expect it to move up over time for reasons that I will describe. If incoming data are consistent with labor market conditions strengthening and inflation making progress toward our 2 percent objective, as I expect, further gradual increases in the federal funds rate are likely to be appropriate and most conducive to meeting and maintaining those objectives. However, I will emphasize that monetary policy is not on a preset course and significant shifts in the outlook for the economy would necessitate corresponding shifts in the appropriate path of policy.

In particular, an important theme of my remarks today will be the inevitable uncertainty surrounding the outlook for the economy. Unfortunately, all economic projections are certain to turn out to be inaccurate in some respects, and possibly significantly so. Will the economic situation in Europe or China take a turn for the worse or exceed expectations? Will U.S. productivity growth pick up and allow stronger growth of gross domestic product (GDP) and incomes or instead continue to stagnate? What will happen with the price of oil? The uncertainties are sizable, and progress toward our goals and, by implication, the appropriate stance of monetary policy will depend on how these uncertainties evolve. Indeed, the policy path that my colleagues and I judge most likely to achieve and maintain maximum employment and price stability has evolved and will continue to evolve in response to developments that alter our economic outlook and the associated risks to that outlook.

Upside target lvls -2105 (NFP SOC), 2110.
Downside target lvls -2096, 2093, 2080.
Price imbalanced towards 2106. 
Big picture suggest balance target 2159 to appear above 2110.

Несмотря на то, что я считаю летнее повышение ставки более вероятным после публикации unemployment rate 4.7%, рынок сконцентрирован на минувших NFP data и проявляет оптимизм. Насколько оптимизм оправдан, и увидим ли мы рост до июньского заседания — предугадать невозможно. Серьезным моментом станет тест NFP SOC 2105 сегодня, в случае прохода этой цифры следует ожидать direct move towards 2110. В случае закрепления цифры 2110, станет актуальной big picture balance target 2159 (Daily/Weekly profile). Крайне сложно представить себе подобный рост и даже тест ATH в месяц заседания и британского референдума, однако следует быть готовыми к подобному варианту развития событий. 
В настоящий момент мой sentiment есть neutral, сменить на позитивный я буду готов его после закрытия дня зеленым и только выше 2110. 
Объективной возможностью трейда на сегодня является продажа 2105 к цифре 2096 в расчете на responsive sellers near 2015 and 2106 (ETH balance target). В случае отсутствия продавцов в р-не 2105(2106), следует закрыть трейд и рассмотреть возможность покупки к 2110.  

Sell lmt 2105; cl lmt 2096; st 2115. 


Kind regards.

UPD: Keep in mind Mrs. Akerlof's speech later today. 

UPD: Closed short at 2107 now, bot 2107.50 towards 2114. 

UPD: Increasing volume near 2107 suggest new HOD. 

UPD: Closed short at 2106, SLD towards 2096. 

UPD: St be placed to protect current short trade (2106). 

UPD: Got long towards 2114 again.