DAX

Well, it was damn hard to make money during recent days — market isn't trending — a bad time for any guy with a trend seeking system:) I refuse to make directional call at this stage, and would rely solely on system's signals. Overall, the rally from 2009 lasted more than enough, sentiment readings are toppish to say at least. But the price action remains muted, and the price action is the ultimate judge…

Price action has screwed my bearish expectations (not the first time and not last). My system turned Up right after market had reached day lows and is firmly long across the board now. If today's spike will not be retraced down immediately today/Monday — price structure becomes bullish.

 

Dax June 13 procceds sharply lower, as expected. Lower levels are due in days ahead.

Market (Dax June 13) is trading at day's low by closing. Which is bearish ceteris paribus. Market remains open for significant downside, with 7800 as probable target level for immediate future. 

After a choppy deceptive trading in the first two days of the week, Dax June 13 is falling down dynamicaly. This implies a lot of downside right ahead. The risk to this view is if the market return trading back above 8300.
 

After the brief penetration of previous low, Dax June 13 has quickly reversed to the upside. My indicators turned long across the board. Now I shall entertain the possibility that market is going to make new recovery high before the downtrend will finally kick-off.

«Ego is how you lose money in this business. I put a trade on, and if it doesn’t start working straightaway, I respect the price action and cut it fast.” Michael Platt, founder of Blue Crest Capital Management

My system covered short at today's lows and is now «long». I am off for week-end. 
 

Dax June 13 has sold-off dynamicaly, thus reinforcing the outright bearish scenario. My prop indicators turned «sell» by late evening yesterday on smaller TFs, and larger TFs are turning into «sell» mode now. More downside from here would imply the immediate decline into 7400 area. Stay tuned.

Pattern in Dax June 13 becomes messy. There are several possibilities to interprete last swings. But my prop indicators turned long across the TFs. I move with the flow.
 

Dax June 13 has reversed down late yesterday and proceeds lower today. Bearish case stands intact. Stay tuned.



Though, medium term it is too early to seal the bearish case. There is a possibility that market is finishing the last down leg of a zig-zag correction. If so, new recovery highs will be achieved before the real turn down. Price action in coming days will clearify.

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