Блог им. renat_vv |Судьба доллара в 2013 - some good research on USD in 2013 (in English)

Кому интересно, публикую интересные заметки одного ведущего банка по поводу доллара в 2013. Напомню, с начала 2013 года продолжается рост доллара. Индекс доллара вырос с начала года примерно на 4%. 

One very good bank:

We maintain our bullish USD view. We expect 5% DXY gain from 3 to 12 months:
 1. Labor market will be improving – > FED more hawkish -> yields to rise

  2.US funds are not diversifying like before.

When assessing the performance of the US dollar, the behaviour of US investors is also key. For much the period of dollar depreciation prior to the financial crisis and following the initial policy stapes after, US investors were heavy investors into foreign equities – as evident in Mutual equity investment flows. However, despite favourable market conditions since last summer, US investors have been more inclined to remain at home. If sustained, this should help the dollar.
  Судьба доллара в 2013 - some good research on USD in 2013 (in English)

 3. Petroleum deficit is shrinking

There has long been one consistent structural negative factor cited for justifying dollar depreciation – the current account deficit. However, relative change is important here and the outlook for the current account is improving. The ongoing surge in domestic energy production is already starting to impact the US external position. The US petroleum deficit fell from USD 326bn in 2011 to USD 293bn last year, a 10% drop despite no change in crude oil prices and broadly similar levels of real GDP growth. If

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Блог им. renat_vv |Everyday Forex - 22.02.13

13:00 – Germany IFO
13:00 – Italy CPI
15:00 – Italy retail sales
17:30 – Canada CPI
Goldman Sachs trading:
“…stay short..it's becoming our core position and the target is realistically 1.45 in the medium term”
“… — No sign of bearish GBP sentiment easing yet.”
=> Market perceptions for GBPUSD to go lower…

+ almost 100 pips in the night, why?
Upbeat Stevens signals RBA done with easing
RBA Governor Stevens' parliamentary testimony today was surprisingly upbeat, so much so that's there's little indication the bank will consider easing ratesagain unless their assumptions prove incorrect. Stevens flagged «reasonableprospects» the economy will eventually make the transition from the mining boom peak — in contrast with the RBA's earlier expressions of concern over its impact on the economy, particularly with the govt in belt-tightening mode.

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