Кому интересно, публикую интересные заметки одного ведущего банка по поводу доллара в 2013. Напомню, с начала 2013 года продолжается рост доллара. Индекс доллара вырос с начала года примерно на 4%.
One very good bank:
We maintain our bullish USD view. We expect 5% DXY gain from 3 to 12 months:
1. Labor market will be improving – > FED more hawkish -> yields to
2.US funds are not diversifying like before.
When assessing the performance of the US dollar, the behaviour of US investors is also key. For much the period of dollar depreciation prior to the financial crisis and following the initial policy stapes after, US investors were heavy investors into foreign equities – as evident in Mutual equity investment flows. However, despite favourable market conditions since last summer, US investors have been more inclined to remain at home. If sustained, this should help the dollar.
3. Petroleum deficit is shrinking
There has long been one consistent structural negative factor cited for justifying dollar depreciation – the current account deficit. However, relative change is important here and the outlook for the current account is improving. The ongoing surge in domestic energy production is already starting to impact the US external position. The US petroleum deficit fell from USD 326bn in 2011 to USD 293bn last year, a 10% drop despite no change in crude oil prices and broadly similar levels of real GDP growth. If
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