Market has sold-off after reaching stipulated technical targets, this could imply some downside for days to come. Yet it's too early to consider market ultimate top.
Stay tuned.





( Читать дальше )

On 8 May  I said that the probable target for the advance is about 8500. Today Dax June 13 traded at 8561 — high for the day so far. So that technical targets has been met today. Yet there is no indication for trend change, and we should assume that the trend is still up. Market could grind higher in coming weeks. I expect the rally to terminate by early June. The pending reversal should bring a tremendous downside potential. 

I think Dax June 13 is due for correction and that it's good level to take profit on longs. On larger timeframes, there likely will be at least one down-up sequence, in order to complete rally from 19th April's low. Targets for upside are around 8500. The less probable, but still possible option is for market to top out here and turn down decisively.

On April 23th I wrote: «Dax June 13 has rallied smartly, momentum has shifted decisively to the upside. Market is open for more upside in coming days/weeks, targets are above 8100» 

Today, Dax June 13 has hit the first stipulated target — 8100, a wooping 600+ points gain in just eight days. Rally doesn't look finished, but quite over-extended in the short-term, so I think it worths to take 1/2 chips out of the table.

Stay tuned.



 

On April 17th I wrote: «I expect market to rally for several handreds points from here, but I still have no reliable evidence that the turn has occured already».  Market continued trading in choppy sideways manner for next several days. 
And today Dax June 13 has rallied smartly, momentum has shifted decisively to the upside. I think that the market is open for more upside in coming days/weeks, targets are above 8100. 

There is little to update regarding DAX June 13 — technicals are muted and my prop indicators remain in «sell». Nevertheless, I am of the opinion that market has bottomed today @7492, or maybe will sink marginally lower. While I expect market to rally for several handreds points from here, I still have no reliable evidence that the turn has occured already.

Technical picure in Dax June 13 remains somewhat muted, but the basement for bullish case has been laid with the strong momentum shift happened yesterday.  Trading above 7800 would confirm odds for extended rally next week. My prop indicators remain «sell» from late yesterday, I will turn long as soon as I have them flipped up.

I must admit I am lost pattern-wise, having no credible forecast for immediate future.
But that's what I have on my trading algo — that's what I base my trading decisions on:


 

( Читать дальше )

Contrary to my expectations back yesterday, Dax June 13 has reversed upward  and is rising through the day. Still, it appears that market is in upward correction and soon to reverse downward. If not — much more gains are to follow. I am flat here, waiting for the signals to clarify the current juncture.
 

Yeserday I wrote: «I expect some moderate upward bias (probably upto 7756) tomorrow/Wednesday in order to finish-off the developing upward correction.» 

Indeed, Dax June 13 has continued upward today in the morning, reaching the intra-day high of 7735,5 and then reversed to the downside. Prop indicators  are in the «sell» mode across the board. I'm short against 7702 on my «swing-trading» account and remain short on «position-trading» account.