RUB: Strong external position, supportive valuation

The RUB still appears undervalued, and is benefiting from a rising external surplus and an attractive carry, especially as the Fed is dovish. A correction in oil prices is a risk, but given the strong external position, the RUB should be able to withstand a rise in volatility. The RUB would accordingly also be less exposed to the fears surrounding Brexit. We turn overall positive on the RUB against the USD. Accordingly, we adjust our forecasts to 63.5 in 3M and 12M from 66 in 3M and 63 in 12M previously.