Positives for the market — The market will likely be pleased that the political uncertainty is over three months sooner than expected (this announcement was only expected in mid December), and optimists will be hopeful that Putin will make good on his pledge to increase Russia’s growth rate to 7%.
Negatives for the market — The return of Putin was widely anticipated, but thepossible departure of Kudrin is likely to cause the market most concern. Moreover, we have thus far seen few new ideas to back up the laudable idea to increase Russia’s growth rate, and there is little sign that Putin will adopt the radical change that some had hoped for.
Market call — The real driver for the Russian market on Monday is likely to be developments in Europe, but overall we would expect the market to take the news slightly negatively as a result of disappointed hopes of Kudrin as Prime Minister.