БЛУМБЕРГ ЦИТИРУЕТ ДМИТРИЯ ШАГАРДИНА. Банк России снизит завтра ставку на 50бп до 10%

The conditions are now ideal to reduce the key rate. The moderately tough statements of the central bank’s head affect the likelihood of rate cuts in December and next year.

The central bank tried to send a signal that the market may be getting ahead of itself by expecting a series of cuts in the coming months. But the risk is that they do only two cuts by 50 basis points each.

Should it refrain from doing so, then the market would not understand anymore what the central bank’s reaction function is, and the risk is that it could hit the central bank’s credibility and visibility.