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Блог компании DayTraderClub | Америка сегодня. Деловая активность. Доходы, расходы и доверие потребителей.

Деловая активность находится в верхних точках своего цикла. Тем не менее аналитики обращают внимание на замедление тенденций и ожидают разворот тренда к значению 57 и последующее снижение:
Америка сегодня. Деловая активность. Доходы, расходы и доверие потребителей.

Доходы потребителей демонстрируют положительную динамику:
Америка сегодня. Деловая активность. Доходы, расходы и доверие потребителей.

При этом, расходы стремятся к сокращению, растут более медленно:
Америка сегодня. Деловая активность. Доходы, расходы и доверие потребителей.

Запасливость и тенденцию накопления подтверждает сокращение потребительского доверия. В назревающей неопределенной ситуации люди склонны откладывать расходы на будущее. По индексу доверия потребителей аналитики ожидают разворот и значения 97 и ниже:
Америка сегодня. Деловая активность. Доходы, расходы и доверие потребителей.

Все новости:
Америка сегодня. Деловая активность. Доходы, расходы и доверие потребителей.
Данные: DTC News, Briefing, Interactive, Economics, Public Sources

★1
97 комментариев
Asian MarketsNikkei...18909...-154.00...-0.80%.  Hang Seng...24112...-189.50...-0.80%.
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  European MarketsFTSE...12248.07...-8.40...-0.10%.  DAX...7332.47...-37.10...-0.50%.
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 S&P futures vs fair value: -6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.90.
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  Shanghai… +12.28 (+0.38%)
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  Early Research Calls

Downgrades:

  • Verint Systems (VRNT 44.05) downgraded to In-line from Outperform at Imperial Capital; tgt raised to $45 from $43. Firm notes that despite their decision to raise their price target by 5% to $45 from $43, based on 13x their FY18 EBTIDA estimate, they see the potential for material share price appreciation over the next year to be limited. Nonetheless, they remain constructive on the company and its long-term prospects.

Misc

  • Dermira (DERM 35.11) initiated with a Buy at Mizuho; tgt $42. Firm notes that although the co is not yet profitable, Dermira has developed several innovative late-stage products that they believe would be attractive to potential buyers. They think that 2017 represents a slow year with respect to potential data catalysts (no data disclosures or FDA approval dates). However, Dermira intends to remain visible at a number of 2017 dermatology conferences ahead of its expected 2018 launches and may also get a boost from other M&A in the sector.
  • Alaska Air (ALK 93.66) target lowered to $98 from $101 at Imperial Capital. Firm notes they are maintaining their FY17 estimate, while lowering their FY18 estimate to $8.05 from $8.50. Their new FY18 estimate assumes RASM increases 0.5% versus 1% previously, and CASM ex-fuel increases 1.5% versus 0.5% previously, including their estimated $20mn impact from wage increases for Virgin's employees following ratification of single labor agreements. They now estimate total realized merger synergies of $45 mln in FY18 versus $146 mln previously
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  CPS Tech: Horton Capital discloses 5.01% active stake, sends letter to the Board  (1.52)
  • «Over the past few months we have made every effort to collaboratively discuss our proposals for the Company and offer suggestions about how we believe the Company can correct course and begin generating shareholder value. We believe it is unfortunate that the Company has refused to engage in any further dialogue with Horton and that the Board and management are so entrenched they are unwilling to engage constructively with one of the Company's largest independent shareholders. Rather, it seems that CPS is prepared to spend a significant amount of the shareholders' money (our estimates for your legal and proxy solicitation bills are hundreds of thousands of dollars) fighting what, we believe, are more than reasonable requests given the Company's historical performance. We, nonetheless, were pleased to hear that our prior communications may have accelerated an internal process at the Company to evaluate the composition, performance and needs of the Board of Directors to determine whether the addition, and/or replacement, of Directors is necessary.»
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  Amaya: David Baazov lowers active stake to 3.8% (Prior 12.1%)  (17.15)
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  Retractable Technologies: BML Investment Partners discloses 6.6% passive stake  (1.10)
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  UTStarcom: Shah Capital increases active stake slightly to 21.3% (Prior 21.13%), discloses non-binding proposal to acquire all of the outstanding Ordinary Shares that are not already owned for $2.15/share in cash  (1.89)

On Mar. 31, 2017, the Consortium Members submitted a non-binding proposal to the Company's board of directors. In the Proposal, the Consortium Members proposed to acquire all of the outstanding Ordinary Shares that are not already owned by the Consortium Members for US$ 2.15 in cash per Ordinary Share. The Consortium Members also stated in the Proposal that they are interested only in the Proposed Transaction, and that they do not intend to sell their shares in any other transaction involving the Company. The Consortium Members intended to finance the transactions contemplated under the Proposal through equity capital.

  • The Consortium Members indicated in the Proposal that they are prepared to negotiate and finalize the terms of the Proposed Transaction in definitive transaction documents, which will provide for covenants and conditions typical and appropriate for transactions of this type. The Proposal also provided that no binding obligation on the part of the Company or the Consortium Members shall arise with respect to the Proposed Transaction unless and until definitive agreements have been executed.
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  Lions Gate Entertainment initiated with a Hold at SunTrust  (26.59)
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  Iconix Brand: Sports Direct (SDISY) increases active stake to 11.16% (Prior 10.16)  (7.43)
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 Overnight Summary — World Markets under slight pressure heading into Q1's end
  • The global equity markets echoed the tone of trading during Friday night's session similar to that Thursday's trade, with Asian indices getting off to a shaky start then grinding to a slower pace during the European hours. As such, Japan and Hong Kong closed out the day with 0.8% losses, while China was among the bright spots in Asia with a 0.4% gain. European majors are lower, but the CAC and FTSE are little changed. S&P Futures have seen a heavy looking order flow throughout the night, leading to a decline of about 6 points and trading close to session lows.
  • In Asia, a couple economic releases highlighted the evening. The first of those was the March China Manufacturing PMI data that beat expectations at 51.8 (vs 51.7e). The robust survey helped to boost sentiment in Mainland equities, leading to a gain of 0.4% in the Shanghai. In Japan, the Nikkei mimicked yesterday's loss and closed out the day down 0.8%. The Nikkei had been trading modestly higher for majority of the session, but took a turn for the worst after the release of the February CPI reading. The headline figure came in a tick above expectations at +0.3% (while excluding fresh food and energy was in-line at +0.1%). The yen saw a wave of buyers stepping in following the release, which in turn took its toll on stocks. The sellers dominated the action from that point on and Nikkei finished the day at session lows.
  • European bourses have been fairly quiet. The DAX is down 0.2% after a mixed bag of economic releases out of Germany. The Feb Retail Sales' figure saw a YoY decline of 2.1%, a wide miss compared to the expected increase of 0.4%. On a more encouraging note, the nation saw a larger than expected decline in the change of Unemployed workers for March, dropping by 30K (vs -10K expected). This led to a slight beat in the Unemployment rate, which came in at 5.8%, better than the 5.9% consensus.

Market updates

  • S&P Futures vs Fair Value: -7.00 
  • 10 yr Note: 2.4126% 
  • USD/JPY: 111.83 -0.09 
  • EUR/USD: 1.0679 +0.0005 
  • Europe: FTSE -0.4% DAX -0.2% CAC -0.2% 
  • Asia: Hang Seng -0.8% Shanghai +0.4% Nikkei -0.8% 
  • Commodities: Gold (1241.70 -12.00) Silver (18.10 -0.11) crude (50.04 -0.31) 

US Econ Data

  • Feb Personal Income/Personal Spending; PCE Price Index (8:30am)
  • Mar Chicago PMI (9:45 am)
  • U of M Consumer Sentiment — Final (10am)
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 Qualcomm, TXN, NVDA, XLNX, AMD, QRVO, MRVL initiated with Neutral ratings at Macquarie   (57.20)
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Intel, MU, MXIM, AVGO, SWKS, CAVM also initiated with Outperform ratings at Macquarie  (35.75)
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 Exelixis initiated with a Buy at Needham; tgt $28  (21.20)
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  HealthEquity, Health Insurance Innovations (HIIQ) both initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald  (40.84)
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  Fidelity Nat'l Info, Total System (TSS) both initiated with Buy ratings at Guggenheim  (80.05)
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 CME Group resumed with a Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $134  (118.85)RBC Capital Mkts resumes coverage of CME with a Outperform and sets target price at $134. Firm values CME at a 2018E 15.5x EV/EBITDA multiple vs the LT peer group average of 12.5x. In 2016, CME posted record volumes in several asset classes. Volume trends are favorable as we transition to a more 'normal' interest rate envm't. Further, they anticipate regulatory tailwinds, and view CME's valuation premium to be warranted.
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 NASDAQ resumed with a Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $71  (69.39)RBC Capital Mkts resumes coverage of NDAQ with a Sector Perform and sets target price at $71, valuing NDAQ at a 10.5x 2018E EV/EBITDA multiple vs a LT peer group average of 12.5x. NDAQ remains the most diverse US exchange group, but firm believes that pressured operating margins, moderate NT growth prospects, and intense competition in NDAQ's primary cash markets will limit NT upside.
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  IntercontinentalExchange resumed with a Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $60  (60.03)RBC Capital Mkts resumes coverage of ICE with a Sector Perform and sets target price at $60, valuing ICE at a 12.5x 2018E EV/EBITDA multiple, in line with the LT US sector average. Firm notes ongoing operating margin expansion, synergy realization, and expanding recurring rev streams. They credit mgmt's LT strategy, but their ests account for a rising share of lower-margin earnings.
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  CBOE Holdings resumed with a Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $90  (80.00)RBC Capital Mkts resumes coverage of CBOE with a Outperform and sets target price at $90 as they recognize that the acquisition of BATS was partly defensive in nature, yet they see significant upside for the combined business. Firm believes that CBOE's proprietary product suite combined with BATS's technology platform and global presence should drive outperformance.
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 JELD-WEN downgraded to Neutral at Wedbush; tgt $34  (33.05)Wedbush downgrades JELD to Neutral from Outperform and sets target price at $34 as they expect JELD-WEN Holdings (JELD-WEN or JELD) to continue to benefit from the transformation under CEO Mark Beck including improved pricing discipline in 2015/2016, establishment of operational excellence culture (productivity tracking metrics), investment in building growth infrastructure and inorganic strategic growth. While firm's earnings model reasonably supports 100bps improvement in annual EBITDA margin during the next three years, at current valuation, there is limited opportunity for co to exceed Consensus earnings expectations and related earnings estimates.
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  Owens Corning upgraded to Outperform at Wedbush; tgt raised to $72  (60.99)Wedbush upgrades OC to Outperform from Neutral and raises their tgt to $72 from $58. Weather is normalizing, consumer confidence is rising, inflation is returning and the residential housing market is better than last year. That points to a better 2H:CY17 for comps and underlying earnings growth for Owens Corning (OC) in 2017 vs. 2016. Demand volume from major storms and other weather events are expected to provide a volume tailwind for Roofing segment while a steepening residential housing start curve and commercial and industrial markets are beginning to play favorably into industry capacity utilization and thus a more favorable pricing and return goals within Insulation.
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  HubSpot upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BTIG Research  (58.20)
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 Alcoa, Fortuna Silver Mines (FSM) both upgraded to Outperform at BMO Capital  (33.49)
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  Vale S.A. upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital  (9.54)
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  Corning downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup  (27.56)
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  Amazon initiated with a Buy, Alphabet (GOOG) initiated with a Hold at Loop Capital  (876.34)
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QRVO short
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  Asian Markets Close: Nikkei -0.8%, Hang Seng -0.8%, Shanghai +0.4%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mixed note, even though PMI readings from China improved from last month's levels. The People's Bank of China remained on the sidelines, and has now skipped liquidity injections for a full week. Investors received the latest set of inflation data from Japan, but Tokyo CPI, which leads national CPI by a month, missed expectations yet again.

  • In economic data:
    • China's March Manufacturing PMI 51.8 (expected 51.6; last 51.6) and March Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.1 (last 54.2)
    • Japan's March Tokyo CPI -0.4% year-over-year (consensus -0.2%; last -0.3%) and Tokyo Core CPI -0.4% year-over-year (expected -0.2%; last -0.3%). February National CPI +0.3% year-over-year, as expected (last 0.4%) and National Core CPI +0.2% year-over-year, as expected (last 0.1%). February Household Spending +2.5% month-over-month (expected 0.4%; last 0.5%); -3.8% year-over-year (consensus -1.7%; previous -1.2%). February Unemployment Rate 2.8% (expected 3.0%; last 3.0%) and February Industrial Production +2.0% year-over-year (consensus 1.2%; prior -0.4%). February Construction Orders +5.7% year-over-year (last 1.1%) and February Housing Starts -2.6% year-over-year (consensus -1.1%; last 12.8%)
    • Australia's February Private Sector Credit +0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.5%; last 0.2%) and February Housing Credit +0.6% (last 0.5%)
    • New Zealand's March ANZ Business Confidence 11.3 (last 16.6)
    • South Korea's February Industrial Production +6.6% year-over-year (consensus 6.7%; last 1.4%)

---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei lost 0.8%, falling 1.8% for the week. Okuma, Nippon Meat Packers, Kansai Electric Power, Isuzu Motors, Hino Motors, SUMCO, DeNA, TOTO, Alps Electric, Fanuc, and Komatsu lost between 1.5% and 3.1%. On the upside, Toshiba jumped 6.1%.
  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng ended lower by 0.8%, widening its weekly decline to 1.0%. Property names and financials struggled with Hang Lung Properties, Sino Land, BoC Hong Kong, China Construction Bank, Ping An Insurance, Bank of China, ICBC, SHK Properties, and Henderson Land surrendering between 0.5% and 2.6%. Kunlun Energy outperformed, jumping 2.9%.
  • China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.4%, narrowing its weekly loss to 1.4%. CSCC Offshore & Marine Engineering, Shandong Bohui Paper, Nuode Investment, Huayu Automotive Systems, and Guangdong Boxin Investing & Holdings climbed between 4.8% and 6.2%.
  • India's Sensex shed 0.1%, ending the week lower by 0.1%. Financials underperformed with AXIS Bank, ICICI Bank, and HDFC Bank falling between 1.5% and 1.7%. Tech consultants Tata Consultancy and Infosys posted respective losses of 0.9% and 0.4% while Wipro settled flat. Reliance Industries was the top performer, jumping 3.9%.

---FX---

  • USDJPY -0.1% to 111.85
  • USDCNY UNCH at 6.8900
  • USDINR +0.2% to 64.941
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 Auxilio, Select Medical (SEM) both initiated with Buy ratings at The Benchmark Company  (4.63)
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 BioTime initiated with a Outperform at Raymond James; tgt $6  (3.31)
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 Colony NorthStar initiated with a Mkt Perform at JMP Securities  (13.00)
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  Condor Hospitality Trust initiated with a Buy at DA Davidson; tgt $12  (10.39)
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 Snap, Enbridge (ENB) both initiated with Market Perform ratings at Wells Fargo  (22.23)
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 Fiserv initiated with a Neutral at Guggenheim; tgt $118  (115.93)
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  Great Plains Engy initiated with an Outperform, PNM Resources (PNM) initiated with an In Line at Evercore ISI  (28.93)
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  Johnson Controls initiated with a Buy at HSBC Securities; tgt $50  (42.14)
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  Lear initiated with a Buy at Berenberg; tgt $175  (141.35)
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  MacroGenics initiated with a Outperform at Raymond James; tgt $26  (17.61)
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  Penn Virginia resumed with a Hold at Canaccord Genuity  (44.44)
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  Towne Bank initiated with a Neutral at Piper Jaffray; tgt $31  (32.95)
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  Viper Energy Partners initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $20  (17.63)
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 Bioverativ initiated with a Hold at Argus; tgt $51  (52.74)
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 Diageo plc downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman  (116.11)
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 TPI Composites initiated with a Overweight at Barclays  (18.29)
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 CEMEX S.A. upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Longbow  (8.82)
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 Aerojet Rocketdyne initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $28  (21.50)
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 TransCanada initiated with a Outperform at Wells Fargo  (45.95)
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  Arconic initiated with a Neutral at Longbow  (26.56)
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  Tableau Software resumes hiring, FY17 upside looks likely; reiterate Outperform and $60 PT — Wedbush  (48.96)Wedbush: Guidance appears to leave plenty of room for FY17 revenue and EPS upside, even if the ratable mix skews up, by our analysis. A resumption in 1Q hiring and a more partner-friendly approach are encouraging, and our checks indicate Tableau continues to be differentiated against heightened competition. At DATA's current valuation (3.4x EV/FY17E revenue), they view risk/reward as skewed to the upside. They would buy shares below the $60 range.
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  Exelixis initiation details — Buy at Needham; tgt $28  (21.20)Needham initiates EXEL with a Buy and price target of $28. Since 2010 Exelixis has focused internal resources on commercializing cabozantinib in oncology. With two approvals now under its belt, and firm believes several more to come, Exelixis looks poised to turn profitable. Shared profits from a second partnered asset, cobimetinib, should help accelerate the process. As profits grow, they expect co to invest to become a LT growth story in oncology through measured investment in R&D and the potential acquisition of leveragable assets. Despite strong performance in EXEL over the last 12 months, firm believes the growth story at Exelixis is just beginning.
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  On The Wires
  • Golden Minerals Company (AUMN) announced that Minera Hecla S.A. de C.V. has exercised its right to extend the lease of Golden's oxide mill in Durango State, Mexico for an additional 18 months, through December 31, 2018. Additionally, Golden announces its filing of the National Instrument 43-101 compliant mineral resource estimate for the Santa Maria silver and gold project, under slightly amended terms from those announced in February 2017.
  • Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) announced that it has signed a modification to its contract with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) to manufacture and store bulk drug substance for its botulism antitoxin, BAT [Botulism Antitoxin Heptavalent (A, B, C, D, E, F, G) — (Equine)], valued at ~$53 mln with a five-year period of performance. This modification to the contract will enable future filling and deliveries of final drug product to the Strategic National Stockpile. BAT is indicated for the treatment of symptomatic botulism following documented or suspected exposure to botulinum neurotoxin serotypes A, B, C, D, E, F, or G in adults and pediatric patients.
  • Codexis, Inc. (CDXS) announced the signing of a multi-year development agreement with Tate & Lyle, a global provider of food ingredients and solutions. This is the second multi-year agreement signed in recent months between Codexis and Tate & Lyle and highlights Codexis' continued growth applying its CodeEvolver protein engineering platform technology in the food industry. This agreement strengthens the existing partnership between the two companies following the completion of a separate supply agreement in December 2016.
  • Endologix (ELGX) announced that the first patients were treated in the Expanding Patient Applicability with Polymer Sealing Ovation Alto Stent Graft (ELEVATE) IDE clinical study, the Company's pivotal clinical trial to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of the Ovation Alto Abdominal Stent Graft System for the repair of infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms. The ELEVATE IDE clinical trial is approved to enroll 75 patients at up to 12 centers in the U.S. Based on the anticipated enrollment timeline, co continues to expect Ovation Alto could be available in the U.S. in 2019.
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  Akamai Tech: Color on Investor Summit  (60.53)
  • RBC notes CFO Jim Benson noted EBITDA margins could remain in the high 30's for longer than the 1-2 years the company had previously indicated due to Akamai's investment initiatives. Long-term, the co expects to operate EBITDA margins in the 40-42% range. They don't believe these investments are due to sector or co maturity, or competitive pressures, but rather due to the co looking to pursue new growth opportunities. They are not changing their estimates, price target or Sector Perform rating. The after-hours price of $60.53, implies a 10x 2017 EBITDA multiple, versus a 3-year forward multiple range of 8x-14x. So valuation is becoming relatively more attractive.
  • Stifel lowers tgt to $62 from $65. Yesterday they attended Akamai's annual Investor Summit in Boston, where mgmt laid out its long-term strategic vision for the co and updated target financial model. Akamai reiterated its commitment to invest in long-term growth initiatives surrounding adjacent opportunities in the enterprise market, which it revealed is likely to constrict EBITDA / FCF margins for at least the next two years. This came as a negative surprise relative to prior expectations, and they are reducing estimates to reflect updated financial targets / timing; Hold.
  • DA Davidson believes the analyst day highlighted for investors Akamai's strong competitive position in the content delivery and security markets. With easier comparisons set to begin in Q1 2017 and new investments to support new revenue initiatives, they believe a faster revenue growth profile for the company will emerge. They reiterate their BUY recommendation.
  • AKAM fell % to its 200 day moving average this yesterday.
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  ConocoPhillips among stocks with favorable commentary on Thursday's Mad Money  (50.00)

Stocks with favorable mention: TSLA, AMZN, NFLX, LULU, COP, HON, CFR, NXPI, ORI, AMGN, TASR, AMD

Stocks with unfavorable mention: PB, CRBP

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Это данные от какого числа?
 Mad Catz makes voluntary assignment in bankruptcy under Canada's Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act   (0.03)
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 Early premarket gappersGapping up: SORL +24.8%, BDSI +14.7%, AKTX +14.4%, QHC +10.5%, CBIO +8.2%, MGNX +7.9%, PSTI +5.8%, BBRY +5%, CNAT +4.6%, EGLE +2.9%, QTNT +2.1%, NVO +2.1%, GFI +1.7%, MARK +1.7%, AU +1.4%, NH +1.2%, WWAV +0.9%, EXEL +0.6%, PRKR +0.5%

Gapping down: WYY -34.7%, AKER -18.8%, BLRX -18.3%, DRIO -16.7%, UNXL -14.4%, PTI -12.8%, APRI -10.7%, CTSO -8.3%, NOMD -3%, AEHR -2.2%, BHP -1.9%, BBL -1.9%, SBGL -1.9%, RIO -1.6%, OREX -1.3%, DB -1.2%, CS -1.2%, LYG -1.2%, OAS -1.2%, AG -1.1%, SAN -1.1%, BCS -1.1%, MS -1%, STO -0.9%
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  CIBC upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse  (85.31)
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 Pan Am Silver downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital  (17.50)
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 Broadcom: Implication from Silver lake & AVGO potential bid for Toshiba Memory; RBC doesn't see AVGO running NAND FAB — RBC  (2220.04)RBC notes Nikkei Asian Review reported that Silver Lake and AVGO tendered a 2T yen (~$18B) bid, on the higher end of expected $13-$18B bids for Toshiba's memory business. Nikkei Asian Review expects ~10 bidders, including WDC and SK Hynix for the asset. Silver Lake anticipates synergies with another one of their holdings, Dell Technologies (DVMT). The cos have not commented on the potential transaction. They think it's unlikely that AVGO intends to acquire a majority stake in NAND assets and start running fabs. The likely scenario they think is — AVGO is the minority bidder with Silver Lake to a) acquire small non-memory assets within the division (controllers, etc) and/or b) AVGO is doing a passive investment with Silver Lake being the primary bidder. They maintain their Top Pick and $240 tgt on AVGO with an assumption that their M&A process hasn't changed (i.e,. they are not planning to take a majority stake and start running NAND fabs).
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  European Markets Update: DAX UNCH, CAC -0.2%, FTSE -0.5%

Major European indices trade in negative territory with the UK's FTSE (-0.5%) falling behind its peers. The weakness comes after British fourth quarter growth was revised down to its slowest pace since the start of 2013. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon sent a letter to the UK government, requesting a second independence referendum. Keep in mind that UK officials have already stated any potential referendum will have to wait until the Brexit process is completed. On that note, European Council President Donald Tusk is expected to issue Brexit negotiation guidelines today.

  • In economic data:
    • Eurozone March CPI +1.5% year-over-year (expected 1.8%; last 2.0%) and Core CPI +0.7% year-over-year (consensus 0.8%; previous 0.9%)
    • UK's Q4 GDP +0.7% quarter-over-quarter, as expected; +1.9% year-over-year (expected 2.0%; last 2.0%). Q4 Current Account deficit GBP12.10 billion (expected deficit of GBP16.00 billion; previous deficit of GBP25.70 billion. Q4 Business Investment -0.9% quarter-over-quarter (expected -1.0%; last 0.4%). Nationwide HPI -0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.4%; last 0.6%); +3.5% year-over-year (consensus 4.1%; last 4.5%)
    • Germany's March Unemployment Change -30,000 (expected -10,000; last -17,000) and March Unemployment Rate 5.8% (expected 5.9%; last 5.9%). February Retail Sales +1.8% month-over-month (expected 0.7%; last -1.0%); -2.1% year-over-year (consensus 0.3%; last 2.7%)
    • France's March CPI +0.6% month-over-month (expected 0.7%; last 0.1%) and February PPI -0.2% month-over-month (last 0.7%). February Consumer Spending -0.8% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; last 0.6%)
    • Italy's March CPI 0.0% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; last 0.4%); +1.4% year-over-year (expected 1.5%; last 1.6%)
    • Spain's February Retail Sales 0.0% year-over-year (last -0.1%)

---Equity Markets---

  • Germany's DAX hovers just below its flat line. Heavyweights like Commerzbank, Siemens, BMW, Deutsche Bank, Daimler, and SAP are down between 0.2% and 2.0%. On the upside, utilities E.ON and RWE hold respective gains of 1.3% and 2.4% while drug makers Bayer and Merck are both up near 0.6%.
  • France's CAC has shed 0.2%. Automakers Peugeot and Renault show respective losses of 0.7% and 1.0%. Growth-sensitive names like Schneider Electric, ArcelorMittal, TechnipFMC, and Valeo are down between 0.7% and 1.0%. On the upside, Vivendi has jumped 3.4% amid reports that net subscription figures could be better than feared.
  • UK's FTSE has given up 0.5% amid weakness in companies exposed to South Africa after the firing of the country's finance minister. Anglo American, Fresnillo, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, and Randgold Resources have surrendered between 1.5% and 3.8%. Old Mutual has slumped 8.0%. On the upside, consumer names like Marks & Spencer, Next, Kingfisher, and Imperial Brands are up between 0.7% and 1.3%.
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 Vertex Pharma upgraded to Buy at Maxim Group after tez/iva data; tgt $143  (107.29)Maxim Group upgrades VRTX to Buy from Hold and sets target price at $143 after positive data from two pivotal studies of tezacaftor/ivacaftor (tez/iva) in F508del homozygotes (EVOLVE) and in the first of two studies in heterozygotes (EXPAND, F508del/residual CFTR). Firm is pleasantly surprised to see how well the combination worked in particular in the heterozygote population...and it worked better than Orkambi in homozygotes, too. Tez/iva is now the new backbone of the CF franchise. Given the positive data in both the EVOLVE and EXPAND studies, firm believes the probability of success in the remaining heterozygote P3 study (data 2H17), as well as the four triple combination studies with tez/iva as the backbone, is skewed in favor of Vertex. They also now see reduced risk in the long term Vertex story and believe the company is in fact realizing their vision to create a foundation from which to dominate the CF landscape for years to come.
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  QuintilesIMS initiated with a Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $89  (79.93)
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  Overnight Treasury Summary

Treasuries Edge Higher Ahead of Personal Income/Spending

  • U.S Treasuries are tracking higher this morning ahead of this morning's release of the February Personal Income/Spending report. The trickle of international economic data from earlier in the week has turned into a flood. Eurozone core consumer price inflation has fallen to 0.7% y/y, its lowest level since last April. Germany's job market grew more than expected in March. The United Kingdom's economy grew by 0.7% q/q in Q4 of 2016, as expected. In Japan, household spending jumped in February and core consumer prices saw year-on-year growth for the second-straight month. The S&P 500 is set to open down 0.21% to 2,363.6 and the U.S. Dollar Index is adding 0.06% at 100.47. WTI crude is down 0.26% to $50.22/bbl. and gold is losing 0.25% to $1,241.9/troy oz.
  • Yield Check:
    • 2-yr: -1 bp to 1.28%
    • 5-yr: -1 bp to 1.96%
    • 10-yr: -1 bp to 2.41%
    • 30-yr: -1 bp to 3.03%
  • International News:
    • China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index unexpectedly rose to 51.8 for March from 51.6 in February
      • China's non-manufacturing PMI jumped to a two-year high of 55.1 from 54.2
    • In Japan, Household Spending increased by 2.5% m/m in February (-3.8% y/y), exceeding estimates after 0.5% growth in January
      • The National Core CPI was up 0.2% y/y in February, matching estimates after 0.1% growth in January
      • Industrial production grew by 2.0% m/m in February after a 0.4% slide in January
      • Construction orders were up 5.7% y/y (1.1% in January)
      • The unemployment rate dipped to 2.8% from 3.0% 
      • The jobs/applications ratio remained at 1.43, as expected
    • New Zealand's ANZ Business Confidence Index fell to 11.3 in March from 16.6 in February
    • In Australia, Private Sector Credit grew 0.3% m/m in February, missing expectations after 0.2% growth in January
    • The eurozone's consumer price index rose 1.5% y/y in March, missing estimates after 2.0% growth in February
      • The core CPI was up 0.7% y/y in March after 0.9% growth in February. March's pace was a 10-month low
    • German unemployment fell by a better-than-expected 30K workers in March after declining by 17K in February
      • The unemployment rate fell to 5.8% from 5.9%
      • Separately, German retail sales rose 1.8% after a 1.0% drop in January
    • French consumer spending slid by 0.8% m/m in February, reversing January's 0.6% growth
      • The French CPI increased 0.6% m/m in March, missing estimates after 0.1% growth in February
      • The French harmonized index of consumer prices rose 0.7% m/m in March (1.4% y/y) after 0.2% growth in February
    • Italy's CPI was unchanged m/m in March (1.4% y/y), missing forecasts after 0.4% growth in February
      • The HICP was up 1.8% m/m in March (1.3% y/y) after 0.2% growth in February
    • U.K. GDP grew by 0.7% q/q in the fourth quarter (1.9% y/y), matching both estimates and Q3's pace
      • Business investment fell 0.9% q/q in Q4 after 0.4% growth in Q3
    • Also in the U.K., GfK Consumer Confidence remained at -6 in March, beating estimates for a small decline
      • The Nationwide House Price Index fell 0.3% m/m in March (+3.5% y/y) after a 0.6% jump in February
    • Brazil's IBC-Br Economic Activity Index fell by 0.26% in January after a drop of the same percentage in December
  • Data out Today:
    • February Personal Income and Spending (08:30 ET)
    • PCE Price Index and PCE Price Index — Core (08:30 ET)
    • March Chicago PMI (09:45 ET)
    • March Michigan Sentiment — Final (10:00 ET)
  • Fed Speakers:
    • Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (10:00 ET)
    • St. Louis Fed President Bullard (non-FOMC voter) (10:30 ET)
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 S&P futures vs fair value: -4.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.50.

Equity futures are under water this morning as investors prepare for a batch of influential economic data. The S&P 500 futures trade five points below fair value. 

Crude oil has ran into a bit of selling pressure in early action as traders engage in some profit-taking following the commodity's three-day rally. The energy component currently trades 0.3% lower at $50.18/bbl. Also of note, the weekly Baker Hughes rig count data will be released this afternoon at 13:00 ET.

In the Treasury market, U.S. sovereign debt trades just a tick above its unchanged mark with the benchmark 10-yr yield one basis point lower at 2.42%. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (FOMC voter) and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (non-FOMC voter) are scheduled to speak later this morning at 10:00 ET and 10:30 ET, respectively.

On the data front, investors will receive a slew of economic reports, including February Personal Income (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%), Personal Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%), and PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%) at 8:30 ET, March Chicago PMI (Briefing.com consensus 55.8) at 9:45 ET, and the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading (Briefing.com consensus 97.6) at 10:00 ET.

In U.S. corporate news:

  • FMC (FMC 69.25, +7.75): +12.6% after DuPont (DD 82.11, +0.47) announced that it's selling part of its crop protection business to the company.
  • BlackBerry (BBRY 7.01, +0.06): +0.9% after beating top and bottom line estimates.

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mixed note, even though PMI readings from China improved from last month's levels. Japan's Nikkei -0.8%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.8%, China's Shanghai Composite +0.4%, India's Sensex -0.1%.
    • In economic data:
      • China's March Manufacturing PMI 51.8 (expected 51.6; last 51.6) and March Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.1 (last 54.2)
      • Japan's March Tokyo CPI -0.4% year-over-year (consensus -0.2%; last -0.3%) and Tokyo Core CPI -0.4% year-over-year (expected -0.2%; last -0.3%). February National CPI +0.3% year-over-year, as expected (last 0.4%) and National Core CPI +0.2% year-over-year, as expected (last 0.1%). February Household Spending +2.5% month-over-month (expected 0.4%; last 0.5%); -3.8% year-over-year (consensus -1.7%; previous -1.2%). February Unemployment Rate 2.8% (expected 3.0%; last 3.0%) and February Industrial Production +2.0% year-over-year (consensus 1.2%; prior -0.4%). February Construction Orders +5.7% year-over-year (last 1.1%) and February Housing Starts -2.6% year-over-year (consensus -1.1%; last 12.8%)
      • Australia's February Private Sector Credit +0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.5%; last 0.2%) and February Housing Credit +0.6% (last 0.5%)
      • New Zealand's March ANZ Business Confidence 11.3 (last 16.6)
      • South Korea's February Industrial Production +6.6% year-over-year (consensus 6.7%; last 1.4%)
    • In news:
      • The People's Bank of China remained on the sidelines, and has now skipped liquidity injections for a full week.
      • Investors received the latest set of inflation data from Japan, but Tokyo CPI, which leads national CPI by a month, missed expectations yet again.
  • Major European indices trade in negative territory. Germany's DAX unch, France's CAC -0.2%, UK's FTSE -0.5%.
    • In economic data:
      • Eurozone March CPI +1.5% year-over-year (expected 1.8%; last 2.0%) and Core CPI +0.7% year-over-year (consensus 0.8%; previous 0.9%)
      • UK's Q4 GDP +0.7% quarter-over-quarter, as expected; +1.9% year-over-year (expected 2.0%; last 2.0%). Q4 Current Account deficit GBP12.10 billion (expected deficit of GBP16.00 billion; previous deficit of GBP25.70 billion. Q4 Business Investment -0.9% quarter-over-quarter (expected -1.0%; last 0.4%). Nationwide HPI -0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.4%; last 0.6%); +3.5% year-over-year (consensus 4.1%; last 4.5%)
      • Germany's March Unemployment Change -30,000 (expected -10,000; last -17,000) and March Unemployment Rate 5.8% (expected 5.9%; last 5.9%). February Retail Sales +1.8% month-over-month (expected 0.7%; last -1.0%); -2.1% year-over-year (consensus 0.3%; last 2.7%)
      • France's March CPI +0.6% month-over-month (expected 0.7%; last 0.1%) and February PPI -0.2% month-over-month (last 0.7%). February Consumer Spending -0.8% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; last 0.6%)
      • Italy's March CPI 0.0% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; last 0.4%); +1.4% year-over-year (expected 1.5%; last 1.6%)
      • Spain's February Retail Sales 0.0% year-over-year (last -0.1%)
    • In news:
      • Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon sent a letter to the UK government, requesting a second independence referendum. Keep in mind that UK officials have already stated any potential referendum will have to wait until the Brexit process is completed.
      • European Council President Donald Tusk is expected to issue Brexit negotiation guidelines today.
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  Five9: Buy the dip — Amazon entry is validation, not threat — Needham  (16.16)Needham is a buyers of FIVN on recent weakness (~12.5% lower over two days) driven by the formal announcement that AMZN has released a commercial Cloud contact center product. They believe the initial reaction in FIVN's stock over the last two days signifies a significant competitive threat opportunity, but their review of the initial AMZN functionality and Go-To-Market strategy suggests the AMZN product will not compete effectively in the enterprise customer segment that FIVN has come to dominate over the last 18+ months. Rather, they believe the correct view of this new entrant is one of large end market validation and suggests FIVN's growth profile can have a long tail given its low penetration of a $20B+ market that remains almost exclusively as perpetual license software today.
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 TRC Co taken private at 47% premium; could spark interest in construction & engineering space  (11.95)As mentioned earlier, engineering and construction management company TRC Co (TRR) announced it will be taken private by New Mountain Partners in an all cash transaction valued at $17.55/share. The deal price represents a large 47% premium to yesterday's closing price, and could spark some trading interest in peers, given the valuation read-through.

For background, TRR ia a national engineering, consulting and construction management firm that provides integrated services to the environmental, energy, and infrastructure markets, primarily in the United States. There are some very large publicly traded engineering and construction firms, including AECOM (ACM), Jacobs Engineerin (JEC), Quanta Services (PWR), EMCOR Group (EME) and MasTec (MTZ).

Names in the construction and engineering space that are closer in size to TRR include the following: Willbros Group (WG), Sterling Construction Company (STRL), Hill International (HIL), NV5 Global (NVEE), Willdan Group (WLDN).
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 European Summary

European Yields Little-Changed

  • European sovereign debt is seeing mixed results this morning after eurozone inflation missed expectations in March. Also this month, Germany's labor market showed more improvement than economists had expected while German retail sales beat expectations in February. The U.K.'s GDP grew by 0.7% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2016 (1.9% y/y).  Benoit Coeure, executive board member at the ECB, said this morning that «the choice of sequencing of policy instruments will be the outcome of our regular assessment of the medium-term price stability outlook.» This comment tends to support the idea that the European Central Bank could hike its deposit rate before the end of its asset purchase program. Today is the last day for the current pace of asset purchases (EUR80 bln/month) and the rate will fall to EUR60 bln/month in April. The program is currently set to end at the end of this year but most analysts expect further tapering during 2018 before eventual termination. The eurozone's core CPI growth of just 0.7% m/m during March along with the recent dip in oil prices could allow the ECB to be more patient in removing monetary policy accommodation, but some factors point in the other direction. Economic sentiment is running very high among both consumers and business in large swathes of the eurozone and if that sentiment filters into real economic activity, it could quickly render ECB policy inappropriately accommodative. In any case, Coeure's remarks should tend to flatten yield curves somewhat
  • European Economic Data:
    • The eurozone's consumer price index rose 1.5% y/y in March, missing estimates after 2.0% growth in February
      • The core CPI was up 0.7% y/y in March after 0.9% growth in February. March's pace was a 10-month low
    • German unemployment fell by a better-than-expected 30K workers in March after declining by 17K in February
      • The unemployment rate fell to 5.8% from 5.9%
      • Separately, German retail sales rose 1.8% after a 1.0% drop in January
    • French consumer spending slid by 0.8% m/m in February, reversing January's 0.6% growth
      • The French CPI increased 0.6% m/m in March, missing estimates after 0.1% growth in February
      • The French harmonized index of consumer prices rose 0.7% m/m in March (1.4% y/y) after 0.2% growth in February
    • Italy's CPI was unchanged m/m in March (1.4% y/y), missing forecasts after 0.4% growth in February
      • The HICP was up 1.8% m/m in March (1.3% y/y) after 0.2% growth in February
    • Spanish retail sales were unchanged y/y in February after dipping by 0.1% in January
      • Spain's current account surplus narrowed to EUR0.41 bln in January from EUR3.4 bln in December 
    • U.K. GDP grew by 0.7% q/q in the fourth quarter (1.9% y/y), matching both estimates and Q3's pace
      • Business investment fell 0.9% q/q in Q4 after 0.4% growth in Q3
      • The U.K.'s current account deficit narrowed more than expected in Q4 to GBP12.1 bln from GBP25.7 bln
    • Also in the U.K., GfK Consumer Confidence remained at -6 in March, beating estimates for a small decline
      • The Nationwide House Price Index fell 0.3% m/m in March (+3.5% y/y) after a 0.6% jump in February
  • Yield Check:
    • France, 10-yr OAT: +1 bp to 0.95%
    • Germany, 10-yr bund: -1 bp to 0.33%
    • Greece, 10-yr note: -5 bps to 6.83%
    • Italy, 10-yr BTP: unch at 2.14%
    • Portugal, 10-yr PGB: +2 bps to 3.64%
    • Spain, 10-yr ODE: +1 bp to 1.64%
    • U.K., 10-yr gilt: unch at 1.12%
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Спай купил
Максим Лавров, я тоже скальпанул с него чуток с открытия на покупку
RH уровень 45,25
Интересно, рынок вчерашний хай будет пробивать сегодня
 стою на покупку, хотелось бы чтобы пробил)
надо закрепиться выше 236
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 пока мы ниже трудновато ему
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MU
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наздак вчера свои хаи пррбил
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 Вышел из спая
COF слабая
 BAX лонг
 51,85 уровень со вчерашнего дня
 AKAM
доуджонс сейчас проснется и еще выше слетаем
COF
 MO
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 лонг
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 но, это не точно
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 NFLX
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уровень 148
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 WDC с чата
 LULU пробой хая
COM
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т.е. COP
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 DLTR
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