Америка сегодня. Деловая активность. Доходы, расходы и доверие потребителей.

Downgrades:

• Verint Systems (VRNT 44.05) downgraded to In-line from Outperform at Imperial Capital; tgt raised to $45 from $43. Firm notes that despite their decision to raise their price target by 5% to $45 from $43, based on 13x their FY18 EBTIDA estimate, they see the potential for material share price appreciation over the next year to be limited. Nonetheless, they remain constructive on the company and its long-term prospects.

Misc

• Dermira (DERM 35.11) initiated with a Buy at Mizuho; tgt $42. Firm notes that although the co is not yet profitable, Dermira has developed several innovative late-stage products that they believe would be attractive to potential buyers. They think that 2017 represents a slow year with respect to potential data catalysts (no data disclosures or FDA approval dates). However, Dermira intends to remain visible at a number of 2017 dermatology conferences ahead of its expected 2018 launches and may also get a boost from other M&A in the sector.
• Alaska Air (ALK 93.66) target lowered to $98 from $101 at Imperial Capital. Firm notes they are maintaining their FY17 estimate, while lowering their FY18 estimate to $8.05 from $8.50. Their new FY18 estimate assumes RASM increases 0.5% versus 1% previously, and CASM ex-fuel increases 1.5% versus 0.5% previously, including their estimated $20mn impact from wage increases for Virgin's employees following ratification of single labor agreements. They now estimate total realized merger synergies of $45 mln in FY18 versus $146 mln previously

• «Over the past few months we have made every effort to collaboratively discuss our proposals for the Company and offer suggestions about how we believe the Company can correct course and begin generating shareholder value. We believe it is unfortunate that the Company has refused to engage in any further dialogue with Horton and that the Board and management are so entrenched they are unwilling to engage constructively with one of the Company's largest independent shareholders. Rather, it seems that CPS is prepared to spend a significant amount of the shareholders' money (our estimates for your legal and proxy solicitation bills are hundreds of thousands of dollars) fighting what, we believe, are more than reasonable requests given the Company's historical performance. We, nonetheless, were pleased to hear that our prior communications may have accelerated an internal process at the Company to evaluate the composition, performance and needs of the Board of Directors to determine whether the addition, and/or replacement, of Directors is necessary.»

On Mar. 31, 2017, the Consortium Members submitted a non-binding proposal to the Company's board of directors. In the Proposal, the Consortium Members proposed to acquire all of the outstanding Ordinary Shares that are not already owned by the Consortium Members for US$ 2.15 in cash per Ordinary Share. The Consortium Members also stated in the Proposal that they are interested only in the Proposed Transaction, and that they do not intend to sell their shares in any other transaction involving the Company. The Consortium Members intended to finance the transactions contemplated under the Proposal through equity capital.

• The Consortium Members indicated in the Proposal that they are prepared to negotiate and finalize the terms of the Proposed Transaction in definitive transaction documents, which will provide for covenants and conditions typical and appropriate for transactions of this type. The Proposal also provided that no binding obligation on the part of the Company or the Consortium Members shall arise with respect to the Proposed Transaction unless and until definitive agreements have been executed.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mixed note, even though PMI readings from China improved from last month's levels. The People's Bank of China remained on the sidelines, and has now skipped liquidity injections for a full week. Investors received the latest set of inflation data from Japan, but Tokyo CPI, which leads national CPI by a month, missed expectations yet again.

• In economic data:
  • China's March Manufacturing PMI 51.8 (expected 51.6; last 51.6) and March Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.1 (last 54.2)
  • Japan's March Tokyo CPI -0.4% year-over-year (consensus -0.2%; last -0.3%) and Tokyo Core CPI -0.4% year-over-year (expected -0.2%; last -0.3%). February National CPI +0.3% year-over-year, as expected (last 0.4%) and National Core CPI +0.2% year-over-year, as expected (last 0.1%). February Household Spending +2.5% month-over-month (expected 0.4%; last 0.5%); -3.8% year-over-year (consensus -1.7%; previous -1.2%). February Unemployment Rate 2.8% (expected 3.0%; last 3.0%) and February Industrial Production +2.0% year-over-year (consensus 1.2%; prior -0.4%). February Construction Orders +5.7% year-over-year (last 1.1%) and February Housing Starts -2.6% year-over-year (consensus -1.1%; last 12.8%)
  • Australia's February Private Sector Credit +0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.5%; last 0.2%) and February Housing Credit +0.6% (last 0.5%)
  • New Zealand's March ANZ Business Confidence 11.3 (last 16.6)
  • South Korea's February Industrial Production +6.6% year-over-year (consensus 6.7%; last 1.4%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei lost 0.8%, falling 1.8% for the week. Okuma, Nippon Meat Packers, Kansai Electric Power, Isuzu Motors, Hino Motors, SUMCO, DeNA, TOTO, Alps Electric, Fanuc, and Komatsu lost between 1.5% and 3.1%. On the upside, Toshiba jumped 6.1%.
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng ended lower by 0.8%, widening its weekly decline to 1.0%. Property names and financials struggled with Hang Lung Properties, Sino Land, BoC Hong Kong, China Construction Bank, Ping An Insurance, Bank of China, ICBC, SHK Properties, and Henderson Land surrendering between 0.5% and 2.6%. Kunlun Energy outperformed, jumping 2.9%.
• China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.4%, narrowing its weekly loss to 1.4%. CSCC Offshore & Marine Engineering, Shandong Bohui Paper, Nuode Investment, Huayu Automotive Systems, and Guangdong Boxin Investing & Holdings climbed between 4.8% and 6.2%.
• India's Sensex shed 0.1%, ending the week lower by 0.1%. Financials underperformed with AXIS Bank, ICICI Bank, and HDFC Bank falling between 1.5% and 1.7%. Tech consultants Tata Consultancy and Infosys posted respective losses of 0.9% and 0.4% while Wipro settled flat. Reliance Industries was the top performer, jumping 3.9%.

---FX---

• USDJPY -0.1% to 111.85
• USDCNY UNCH at 6.8900
• USDINR +0.2% to 64.941

• Golden Minerals Company (AUMN) announced that Minera Hecla S.A. de C.V. has exercised its right to extend the lease of Golden's oxide mill in Durango State, Mexico for an additional 18 months, through December 31, 2018. Additionally, Golden announces its filing of the National Instrument 43-101 compliant mineral resource estimate for the Santa Maria silver and gold project, under slightly amended terms from those announced in February 2017.
• Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) announced that it has signed a modification to its contract with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) to manufacture and store bulk drug substance for its botulism antitoxin, BAT [Botulism Antitoxin Heptavalent (A, B, C, D, E, F, G) — (Equine)], valued at ~$53 mln with a five-year period of performance. This modification to the contract will enable future filling and deliveries of final drug product to the Strategic National Stockpile. BAT is indicated for the treatment of symptomatic botulism following documented or suspected exposure to botulinum neurotoxin serotypes A, B, C, D, E, F, or G in adults and pediatric patients.
• Codexis, Inc. (CDXS) announced the signing of a multi-year development agreement with Tate & Lyle, a global provider of food ingredients and solutions. This is the second multi-year agreement signed in recent months between Codexis and Tate & Lyle and highlights Codexis' continued growth applying its CodeEvolver protein engineering platform technology in the food industry. This agreement strengthens the existing partnership between the two companies following the completion of a separate supply agreement in December 2016.
• Endologix (ELGX) announced that the first patients were treated in the Expanding Patient Applicability with Polymer Sealing Ovation Alto Stent Graft (ELEVATE) IDE clinical study, the Company's pivotal clinical trial to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of the Ovation Alto Abdominal Stent Graft System for the repair of infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms. The ELEVATE IDE clinical trial is approved to enroll 75 patients at up to 12 centers in the U.S. Based on the anticipated enrollment timeline, co continues to expect Ovation Alto could be available in the U.S. in 2019.

• RBC notes CFO Jim Benson noted EBITDA margins could remain in the high 30's for longer than the 1-2 years the company had previously indicated due to Akamai's investment initiatives. Long-term, the co expects to operate EBITDA margins in the 40-42% range. They don't believe these investments are due to sector or co maturity, or competitive pressures, but rather due to the co looking to pursue new growth opportunities. They are not changing their estimates, price target or Sector Perform rating. The after-hours price of $60.53, implies a 10x 2017 EBITDA multiple, versus a 3-year forward multiple range of 8x-14x. So valuation is becoming relatively more attractive.
• Stifel lowers tgt to $62 from $65. Yesterday they attended Akamai's annual Investor Summit in Boston, where mgmt laid out its long-term strategic vision for the co and updated target financial model. Akamai reiterated its commitment to invest in long-term growth initiatives surrounding adjacent opportunities in the enterprise market, which it revealed is likely to constrict EBITDA / FCF margins for at least the next two years. This came as a negative surprise relative to prior expectations, and they are reducing estimates to reflect updated financial targets / timing; Hold.
• DA Davidson believes the analyst day highlighted for investors Akamai's strong competitive position in the content delivery and security markets. With easier comparisons set to begin in Q1 2017 and new investments to support new revenue initiatives, they believe a faster revenue growth profile for the company will emerge. They reiterate their BUY recommendation.
• AKAM fell % to its 200 day moving average this yesterday.

Stocks with favorable mention: TSLA, AMZN, NFLX, LULU, COP, HON, CFR, NXPI, ORI, AMGN, TASR, AMD

Stocks with unfavorable mention: PB, CRBP

Major European indices trade in negative territory with the UK's FTSE (-0.5%) falling behind its peers. The weakness comes after British fourth quarter growth was revised down to its slowest pace since the start of 2013. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon sent a letter to the UK government, requesting a second independence referendum. Keep in mind that UK officials have already stated any potential referendum will have to wait until the Brexit process is completed. On that note, European Council President Donald Tusk is expected to issue Brexit negotiation guidelines today.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone March CPI +1.5% year-over-year (expected 1.8%; last 2.0%) and Core CPI +0.7% year-over-year (consensus 0.8%; previous 0.9%)
  • UK's Q4 GDP +0.7% quarter-over-quarter, as expected; +1.9% year-over-year (expected 2.0%; last 2.0%). Q4 Current Account deficit GBP12.10 billion (expected deficit of GBP16.00 billion; previous deficit of GBP25.70 billion. Q4 Business Investment -0.9% quarter-over-quarter (expected -1.0%; last 0.4%). Nationwide HPI -0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.4%; last 0.6%); +3.5% year-over-year (consensus 4.1%; last 4.5%)
  • Germany's March Unemployment Change -30,000 (expected -10,000; last -17,000) and March Unemployment Rate 5.8% (expected 5.9%; last 5.9%). February Retail Sales +1.8% month-over-month (expected 0.7%; last -1.0%); -2.1% year-over-year (consensus 0.3%; last 2.7%)
  • France's March CPI +0.6% month-over-month (expected 0.7%; last 0.1%) and February PPI -0.2% month-over-month (last 0.7%). February Consumer Spending -0.8% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; last 0.6%)
  • Italy's March CPI 0.0% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; last 0.4%); +1.4% year-over-year (expected 1.5%; last 1.6%)
  • Spain's February Retail Sales 0.0% year-over-year (last -0.1%)

---Equity Markets---

• Germany's DAX hovers just below its flat line. Heavyweights like Commerzbank, Siemens, BMW, Deutsche Bank, Daimler, and SAP are down between 0.2% and 2.0%. On the upside, utilities E.ON and RWE hold respective gains of 1.3% and 2.4% while drug makers Bayer and Merck are both up near 0.6%.
• France's CAC has shed 0.2%. Automakers Peugeot and Renault show respective losses of 0.7% and 1.0%. Growth-sensitive names like Schneider Electric, ArcelorMittal, TechnipFMC, and Valeo are down between 0.7% and 1.0%. On the upside, Vivendi has jumped 3.4% amid reports that net subscription figures could be better than feared.
• UK's FTSE has given up 0.5% amid weakness in companies exposed to South Africa after the firing of the country's finance minister. Anglo American, Fresnillo, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, and Randgold Resources have surrendered between 1.5% and 3.8%. Old Mutual has slumped 8.0%. On the upside, consumer names like Marks & Spencer, Next, Kingfisher, and Imperial Brands are up between 0.7% and 1.3%.

Treasuries Edge Higher Ahead of Personal Income/Spending

• U.S Treasuries are tracking higher this morning ahead of this morning's release of the February Personal Income/Spending report. The trickle of international economic data from earlier in the week has turned into a flood. Eurozone core consumer price inflation has fallen to 0.7% y/y, its lowest level since last April. Germany's job market grew more than expected in March. The United Kingdom's economy grew by 0.7% q/q in Q4 of 2016, as expected. In Japan, household spending jumped in February and core consumer prices saw year-on-year growth for the second-straight month. The S&P 500 is set to open down 0.21% to 2,363.6 and the U.S. Dollar Index is adding 0.06% at 100.47. WTI crude is down 0.26% to $50.22/bbl. and gold is losing 0.25% to $1,241.9/troy oz.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -1 bp to 1.28%
  • 5-yr: -1 bp to 1.96%
  • 10-yr: -1 bp to 2.41%
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 3.03%

• International News:
  • China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index unexpectedly rose to 51.8 for March from 51.6 in February
    • China's non-manufacturing PMI jumped to a two-year high of 55.1 from 54.2
  • In Japan, Household Spending increased by 2.5% m/m in February (-3.8% y/y), exceeding estimates after 0.5% growth in January
    • The National Core CPI was up 0.2% y/y in February, matching estimates after 0.1% growth in January
    • Industrial production grew by 2.0% m/m in February after a 0.4% slide in January
    • Construction orders were up 5.7% y/y (1.1% in January)
    • The unemployment rate dipped to 2.8% from 3.0% 
    • The jobs/applications ratio remained at 1.43, as expected
  • New Zealand's ANZ Business Confidence Index fell to 11.3 in March from 16.6 in February
  • In Australia, Private Sector Credit grew 0.3% m/m in February, missing expectations after 0.2% growth in January
  • The eurozone's consumer price index rose 1.5% y/y in March, missing estimates after 2.0% growth in February
    • The core CPI was up 0.7% y/y in March after 0.9% growth in February. March's pace was a 10-month low
  • German unemployment fell by a better-than-expected 30K workers in March after declining by 17K in February
    • The unemployment rate fell to 5.8% from 5.9%
    • Separately, German retail sales rose 1.8% after a 1.0% drop in January
  • French consumer spending slid by 0.8% m/m in February, reversing January's 0.6% growth
    • The French CPI increased 0.6% m/m in March, missing estimates after 0.1% growth in February
    • The French harmonized index of consumer prices rose 0.7% m/m in March (1.4% y/y) after 0.2% growth in February
  • Italy's CPI was unchanged m/m in March (1.4% y/y), missing forecasts after 0.4% growth in February
    • The HICP was up 1.8% m/m in March (1.3% y/y) after 0.2% growth in February
  • U.K. GDP grew by 0.7% q/q in the fourth quarter (1.9% y/y), matching both estimates and Q3's pace
    • Business investment fell 0.9% q/q in Q4 after 0.4% growth in Q3
  • Also in the U.K., GfK Consumer Confidence remained at -6 in March, beating estimates for a small decline
    • The Nationwide House Price Index fell 0.3% m/m in March (+3.5% y/y) after a 0.6% jump in February
  • Brazil's IBC-Br Economic Activity Index fell by 0.26% in January after a drop of the same percentage in December

• Data out Today:
  • February Personal Income and Spending (08:30 ET)
  • PCE Price Index and PCE Price Index — Core (08:30 ET)
  • March Chicago PMI (09:45 ET)
  • March Michigan Sentiment — Final (10:00 ET)
• Fed Speakers:
  • Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (10:00 ET)
  • St. Louis Fed President Bullard (non-FOMC voter) (10:30 ET)