Ab igne ignem; Взгляд на предстоящую неделю, “The Perfect Storm”.

Календарь и ожидания по данным на предстоящую неделю от GS:

Monday Oct 31

Taiwan GDP (Q3) We expect 3Q2011 GDP growth to slow to 3.5% yoy, down from 5.0% yoy in the previous quarter. The Bloomberg consensus forecast is at 3.6% yoy.

Euro Zone CPI (Oct) Consensus looks for a reading of 2.9% yoy, down from 3.0% yoy in September.

US Chicago PMI (Oct) Consensus is looking for a moderation to 59.0 from 60.4 previously. We are forecasting a reading of 58.0, below consensus.

Tuesday Nov 1

Global PMI’s We expect China’s official PMI to show a moderation in October. We believe despite the rebound in activity growth in September, the underlying growth momentum remains weak amid still tight domestic monetary conditions and weak external demand. Seasonally, the official PMI tends to fall in October as well though the seasonal factor may not be stable over time.

Indonesia CPI (Oct) We expect October CPI inflation to come in at 4.7% yoy versus 4.61% yoy in September. The Bloomberg consensus expectation is at 4.78% yoy.

Korea CPI (Oct) We expect CPI inflation to moderate to 4.2% yoy in October. That said, inflation moderation is likely to be slow in coming months due to the recent KRW depreciation and pent-up pressure for administered prices including electricity, natural gas, and public transportation tariffs.

Australia Central Bank Meeting Following last week’s benign CPI reading, our economists think a 25bp cut is all but assured. This is in line with consensus. The market is pricing a roughly 75% probability of a 25bp cut at this meeting.

UK GDP (Q3) We are significantly above consensus, looking for a reading of +0.6%-0.7%qoq (the median of economists polled by Bloomberg is just +0.3%qoq). Much of the growth that we expect reflects statistical distortions (in particular, the reversal of the royal wedding effect). It may be that the consensus forecast has taken insufficient account of these factors.

US ISM (Oct) Consensus is looking for a small rise to 52.0 from 51.6. We are below consensus and are looking for a reading of 51.5.

Wednesday Nov 2

US FOMC decision (see our discussion above)

Thursday Nov 3

G-20 Summit in Cannes

Euro Zone ECB rate decision This will be Mario Draghi’s first decision as President of the ECB, which will make the press conference especially important. Consensus expects rates to be on hold, as do we. We are expecting a 50bp cut only in December.

US Initial Claims (Oct. 29) Consensus is looking for a reading of 400k, relative to 402k in the previous week.

Friday Nov 4

G-20 Summit in Cannes

Australia RBA Statement on Monetary Policy

Global Services PMIs

US Non-farm payrolls (Oct) We forecast that non-farm payroll employment rose by 75k in October. The deceleration from a gain of 103k in September reflects the lack of a boost from the return of striking workers and still-moderate hiring activity. Consensus is looking for a reading of 92k. In line with consensus, we expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 9.1%.

по EUR/USD стоп у меня стоит в деньгах по уровням в инструменте выходит ~~1.436. Размер убытка в случае выхода по стопу- очень значительный для меня, но терпимый естественно.