разговор в блумберге (2)

15:00:48  R:  Have you seen those analogous charts of us stock market (today vs. 1928-29)?

 
15:01:02  J: Yep
15:01:45  R:  I've a feeling that those highs that S&P is going to show in coming days are good for short maybe
15:02:14  J: If you look at nikkei… that is showing weakness and is concern. For me that is the one to watch If you expecting u.s stocks to drop
15:11:26  R: that just a feeling. i think levels above 1850 may be highs and then we can have prolonged correction
15:15:14  J: 1857 is lvl


 


15:18:04  J: Look at red line
15:21:09  J: What do you think
15:22:33  J: So get a false break… and fail!
15:24:32  R: looks very good
15:25:51  R: so 1900
15:25:54  R: top
15:26:11  J: I was thinking you sell into red line
15:26:16  J: Why 1900?
15:26:40  R: place where green and redline interact
15:26:51  R: like double signal
15:27:05  J: true
15:29:44  J: What you think gbpusd?
15:30:00  R: I think short now. I have been bullish before and turned neutral after inflation report came out. That's was too soon however… We have a lot of data this week. If data disappoints, cable may fall sharply. Expectations are high… But all dips can be bought on the back of m&a deal etc… However even this vodafone story can dissappoint, I think. People've started to take profit today. There was stops flush out in the night
15:33:28  R: sorry for too many words)))
15:33:45  J: Hahah nothing wrong with that… its clear what you are saying
15:33:49  J: But where is your stop?>
15:34:30  R: I will exit if I see bullish picture/pattern
15:34:50  J: So you don't like firm stops?
15:34:59  R: I exit positions this way at present
15:35:14  R: I think when you have really big positions — yes you should have firm stops
15:35:22  J: Oh ok
15:35:28  R: but more preferable in parts and not 100% of position
15:35:39  R: maybe 3-4 parts 15% of position each
15:35:40  J: Fair enough… so you have room to add
15:36:09  R: I hate being stopped out vainly
15:36:31  J: My experience has told me… it is best to get out
15:36:33  J: And wait
15:36:34  R: I usually watch price action and then decide to exit/switch
15:40:22  R: yes… this can be hard to cut position. I was sure before that you always need to have firm stop order given to bank. But now I make stop when a picture changes
15:40:59  J: I think it is best to have firm mental stop before you put position on
15:41:10  J: Its a warning that something has changed
15:42:14  J: I think people do not invest the time and energy to think about their stops. They spend more time about their entry positions. But I think if you know where your stops are. You can then think about your entry position!
15:44:02  R: you're absolutely right
15:45:07  R: however market is always stops chaser...
15:47:06  J: I really do believe that best time to have  a stop and think about adding to position is before oyu do the first trade
15:47:14  J: Emotion is very dangerous when trading
15:48:27  J: Your cable short view - If spot goes to 1.6600 innext 10 minutes would you take profit?
15:49:33  J: Hypothetically?
15:49:34  R: no
15:49:39  J: 1.65?
15:49:39  R: i will hold it
15:49:47  R: will hold it ofcourse
15:50:06  R: it would mean that something really bad happened
15:50:09  J: That is the right answer… I always found it hard to hold on… I would take profit ahaha
15:50:18  R: however you know what, that impulse would be contra-trend so maybe I would take profit partly. usually impulses contra-trend are reversing fast  well but if impulse is 2 figs it will not reverse ofcourse (soon).
15:51:29  R: you see what I mean?
15:51:34  J: yep
15:51:44  J: Its clear to me you have a plan what you will do if it goes your way
15:51:52  R: I remember up-trend in eur in december. it caused a lot of pain
15:52:00  J: What's wrong with having a clear idea if it goes against you
15:52:12  R: and there were impulses down. and then they reversed fast
15:52:33  R: you remember?
15:52:39  J: yep
15:52:40  R: there was good nfp.  Eur went down then up. and something more i don't remember now
15:53:29  R: What's wrong with having a clear idea if it goes against you = what I would do if market goes against?
15:53:39  J: yep
15:53:50  J: I am saying having a mental stop allows you to know when you are wrong
15:54:14  R: maybe I should try this
15:54:23  J: It should not be negative. You should see as a lvl where you will stop and think about mkt without burden of carrying position going wrong
15:55:29  J: Before you enter any position… you have to know where you are wrong
15:55:35  J: Otherwise will one day you will get destroyed
15:57:19  J: This is from experience
15:57:27  R: man but banks can see my stops!
15:57:33  J: Don't tell them
15:57:36  R: and they can chase me
15:57:38  J: Its mental stop
15:57:43  R: ah
15:57:45  R: yes
15:58:06  J: But you as a person… need to know if it trades through a certain lvl
15:58:10  J: For whatever reason
15:58:12  J: You are out
15:58:53  J: You can have things like… if it stays above a certain lvl for 3 hours or 1 hour
15:58:55  J: Do you see..
15:59:01  J: It does not need to be triggered straight away
15:59:09  R: yes
15:59:11  R: I like it
15:59:28  J: But this protects yourself from YOU!