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Блог компании DayTraderClub | Америка сегодня. Рынки труда и недвижимости

В годовом измерении рынок недвижимости США находится в восстанавливающемся тренде с 2010-го года:
Америка сегодня. Рынки труда и недвижимости


При этом последние два с половиной года наблюдается динамика в сокращении роста цен на новые дома. Произошла почти полная остановка этого показателя и он находится около нулевой психологической отметки:
Америка сегодня. Рынки труда и недвижимости


Пробитие нулевой отметки будет сигнализировать, что конкуренция среди строителей значительно увеличена и они начинают бороться за покупателя серьёзно уступая в цене, это говорит о перенасыщении рынка и ближайшие месяцы возможен значительный спад и пессимизм. Аналитики по рынку недвижимости настроены разносторонне, показатели ожидаются в диапазоне 2% от предыдущих значений:
Америка сегодня. Рынки труда и недвижимости


Еженедельный индикатор заявок на пособия демонстрирует оптимизм, его значения  снова упали к 43-хлетним  минимумам: 
Америка сегодня. Рынки труда и недвижимости


Новое значение ожидается на отметке 242 тысячи, аналитики осторожны в своих оценках, ожидаемое значение немного выше предыдущего:
Америка сегодня. Рынки труда и недвижимости


Все новости: 
Америка сегодня. Рынки труда и недвижимости
Данные: DTC News, Briefing, Interactive, Economics, Public Sources
★2

Asian MarketsNikkei...19402...+344.90...+1.80%.  Hang Seng...23374...+325.10...+1.40%.
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 European MarketsFTSE...7178.96...+14.50...+0.20%.  DAX...11861.60...+55.60...+0.50%.
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 Scientific Games upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill  (17.00)
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 Intl Game Tech. PLC downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill  (28.12)
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 Grainger upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank  (253.11)
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 RPC upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim  (22.42)
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 Ameriprise Financial initiated with a Buy at Citigroup  (116.95)
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 On The Wires
  • Smiths Group (SMGZY) announces that it has completed the sale of Smiths Interconnect's Power business, to Dunes Point Capital, LLC, a family office and private investment firm, located in Rye, NY, for an enterprise value of £162 million. This disposal is part of an ongoing corporate programme to focus the Company's portfolio on market leading scalable positions in its chosen markets. The proceeds will be reinvested in attractive growth opportunities for the Company.
  • A significant in-kind gift from Trimble (TRMB) will expand the University of Massachusetts Amherst's leadership in training and research in 3D building design, digital fabrication and the sustainable built environment. Partnering with Trimble allows UMass Amherst to more fully integrate across its curricula the technological tools that are rapidly transforming how building and living environments are designed and constructed.
  • On January 25, 2017, Rosetta Genomics (ROSG) eliminated the position of Chief Commercial Officer and terminated Mark R. Willig.
  • On January 20, 2017, the board of directors of Senseonics (SENS) promoted Mukul Jain, Ph.D. to the position of Chief Operating Officer and appointed Dr. Jain as the Company's principal operating officer, effective immediately.
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 Voya Financial initiated with a Buy at Citigroup  (40.80)
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 Unum Group initiated with a Buy at Citigroup  (46.01)
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 Meredith downgraded to Hold from Buy at The Benchmark Company  (60.25)
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  Asian Markets Close: Nikkei +1.8%, Hang Seng +1.4%, Shanghai +0.3%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a broadly higher note with Japan's Nikkei (+1.8%) leading the way. Etsuro Honda, who advises Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, said that it may make sense to compile an extra budget of JPY5 trillion. Mr. Honda also said the dollar/yen pair may climb above 120 this year.

  • In economic data:
    • Hong Kong's December trade deficit widened to HKD45.5 billion from HKD34.10 billion. December Imports +8.7% month-over-month (last 7.6%) and December Exports +10.1% month-over-month (last 8.1%)
    • South Korea's February Manufacturing BSI Index 78 (last 73)
    • New Zealand's Q4 CPI +0.4% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.3%; last 0.3%); +1.3% year-over-year (consensus 1.2%; last 0.4%)
    • Singapore's Q4 Unemployment Rate ticked up to 2.2% from 2.1%, as expected. December Industrial Production +6.4% month-over-month (expected -5.8%; last 6.0%); +21.3% year-over-year (consensus 9.5%; last 11.8%)

---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei registered its second consecutive advance, climbing 1.8%. Financials displayed relative strength with Chiba Bank, Dai-ichi Life Insurance, Concordia Financial, Nomura Holdings, Shinsei Bank, and Daiwa Securities Group rising between 3.9% and 5.2%.
  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng rallied 1.4% to levels from late October. Consumer names and financials were among the leaders. Want Want China, Belle International, and China Mengniu Dairy gained between 3.1% and 3.9% while BoC Hong Kong, Bank of East Asia, China Construction Bank, HSBC, and Bank of China added between 1.4% and 2.3%.
  • China's Shanghai Composite added 0.3%. CITIC Guoan Wine, Yunnan Jinggu Forestry, Shanghai Jiabao Industry & Commerce, and HuNan Tyen Machinery gained between 4.0% and 5.4%.
  • India's Sensex was closed for Republic Day.

---FX---

  • USDJPY +0.8% to 114.21
  • USDCNY -0.1% to 6.8796
  • USDINR +0.1% to 68.060
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  Reinsurance Group of America initiated with a Buy at Citigroup  (125.37)
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  MSC Industrial upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank  (102.97)
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 United Rentals upgraded to Mkt Outperform from Mkt Perform at Avondale  (114.26)
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 Varian Medical downgraded to Sell from Hold at Evercore ISI  (92.42)
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 Navios Maritime Midstream downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup  (11.90)
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  Conduent initiated with a Buy at Citigroup  (14.82)
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 Lincoln National initiated with a Buy at Citigroup  (69.01)
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 Prudential initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup  (107.36)
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 Primerica initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup  (76.15)
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 Principal Fincl initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup  (59.65)
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 AFLAC initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup  (70.46)
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 American Equity Investment Life initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup  (24.34)
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 MetLife initiated with a Sell at Citigroup  (56.15)
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 CNO Financial initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup  (19.63)
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  POSCO upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Nomura  (54.18)
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  Washington Trust, Central Pacific Financial (CPF) both upgraded to Buy ratings from Neutral at Compass Point  (54.15)
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 VCA, Heska Corp (HSKA) both downgraded to Neutral ratings from Buy at CL King  (90.79)
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 Williams Partners initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse  (40.95)
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 Williams Cos initiated with a Outperform at Credit Suisse  (28.81)
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 AT&T: Color on Quarter  (41.39)
  • FBR increases their price target to $44 from $42, and maintain their Market Perform rating. They note that AT&T reported largely mixed 4Q16 results, with both top-line and adjusted EBITDA misses driven by fewer upgrades and continued legacy service weakness. Lower depreciation expenses helped lift adjusted EPS to $0.66. Strong international and entertainment revenues were key to offsetting ongoing weakness in consumer mobility and an anemic business solutions segment, which continues to be handicapped by weak legacy service demand. Promotional pricing of DIRECTV NOW, with zero-rating, saw strong initial adoption, helping to offset churn from the 2G network shutdown. With Ajit Pai recently named as chairman of the FCC, net neutrality is likely to be overturned; and zero-rating will likely be endorsed, paving the way for T's bundling strategy.
  • RBC increases their price target to $42 from $39, and maintain their Sector Perform rating. They note that AT&T reported mixed results with strong revenues offset by margin pressures from elevated wireless competition. The company remains focused on stabilizing its wireless subscriber base primarily by bundling wireless services with video. We believe corporate tax reform could provide offsetting benefits to counter financial pressures from elevated wireless competition. Increases price target to $42 from $39, maintains sector perform. 

AT&T shares are down ~0.3% pre-market in reaction to earnings. 

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  United Tech, State Street (STT) both downgraded to Hold ratings from Buy at Argus  (110.96)
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 On The Wires
  • Medtronic plc (MDT) announced receipt of an investigational device exemption from the FDA to initiate a study of the IN.PACT Admiral drug-coated balloon for a potential new indication in patients with end-stage renal disease. The randomized study will evaluate the IN.PACT Admiral DCB as a treatment for failing arteriovenous fistulas in these patients as compared to plain balloon angioplasty. The IDE approval enables Medtronic to initiate the study and gain safety and effectiveness data for the device in this investigational indication.
  • Verastem (VSTM) announced dosing of the first patient in a new clinical trial evaluating avelumab, an investigational fully human anti-PD-L1 IgG1 monoclonal antibody, in combination with Verastem's defactinib, an investigational focal adhesion kinase (FAK) inhibitor, in patients with advanced ovarian cancer.
  • Canadian Solar (CSIQ) announced that Wirsol has started the commercial operation of a 30MWp solar photovoltaic power plant in Delfzijl, Netherlands, for which Canadian solar has supplied the panels.
  • The European Commission has approved, under the EU Merger Regulation, the acquisition of joint control over a portfolio of ten logistics assets located in Germany by the NN Group N.V. (NNGPF) via its wholly owned subsidiary REI Germany Cross Docks B.V. of the Netherlands on the one hand, and by the CBRE Group of the US and Poste Vita of Italy on the other hand. The target portfolio comprises the following 10 real estate logistics assets currently leased to Deutsche Post DHL Group under long-term agreements. The Commission concluded that the proposed acquisition would raise no competition concerns, because of its very limited impact on the market structure.
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 eBay target raised to $38 at Aegis Capital — Thesis reaffirmed, buy the stock  (30.23)Aegis Capital raises their EBAY tgt to $38 from $36 following earnings. Firm's thesis on the stock was reaffirmed — buy the stock for a stabilizing and now accelerating core, execution at StubHub and Classifieds and the potential to unlock value at both, continual share repurchases, a cheap multiple, a high FCF yield, and consistent quarterly outperformance. Further, it is not out of the realm of possibilities for acquirers to find interest in eBay post the 2yr split anniversary this summer.
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 European Markets Update: CAC +0.1%, FTSE +0.2%, DAX +0.4%

Major European indices trade in the green, but gains have been limited for the most part. In Italy, the Constitutional Court amended a run-off rule in the country's electoral law for the lower house. The old rule called for a second vote in the event no party secures more than 40.0% of the vote. Seats will now be appointed proportionally to the percentage of vote received by each party. The ruling could lead to early elections. 

  • In economic data:
    • Germany's February GfK Consumer Climate 10.2 (expected 10.0; last 9.9)
    • UK's Q4 GDP +0.6% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.5%; last 0.6%); +2.2% year-over-year (consensus 2.1%; last 2.2%). Index of Services 1.0% (expected 0.9%; last 1.1%) and BBA Mortgage Approvals 43,200 (expected 41,100; last 40,700). January CBI Distributive Trades Survey -8 (expected 22; last 35)
    • Italy's November Retail Sales -0.7% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; last 1.2%); +0.8% year-over-year (last -0.2%)
    • Swiss December trade surplus narrowed to CHF2.72 billion from CHF3.50 billion (expected surplus of CHF2.81 billion)
    • Spain's Q4 Unemployment Rate fell to 18.6% from 18.9% (expected 18.7%)

---Equity Markets---

  • France's CAC is higher by 0.1% even though more than half of its components sit in negative territory. Nokia Oyj leads with a 3.5% gain while financials Credit Agricole, Societe Generale, and BNP Paribas are up between 0.7% and 1.2%. On the downside, exporters Peugeot and Renault are both down near 0.8%.
  • UK's FTSE trades up 0.2% with Diageo jumping 4.4% in reaction to solid results. Financials outperform with Lloyds Banking, RSA Insurance, Standard Life, Barclays, and RBS up between 1.4% and 4.8%. RBS leads despite announcing a GBP3.10 billion write-off towards a potential settlement with US regulators over sales of residential mortgage-backed securities.
  • Germany's DAX is higher by 0.4%, trading just below its record high from early 2015. Drugmakers Bayer and Merck are both up near 2.5% while financials Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank also outperform, rising 0.9% and 2.0%, respectively. Exporters lag with BMW, Volkswagen, and Daimler down between 0.3% and 0.8%.
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  Caterpillar lowers FY17 guidance, sees EPS at $2.90 vs $3.07 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $36-39 bln vs $38.30 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
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 Early premarket gappersGapping up: AVGR +23.9%, NURO +9.6%, TER +9.2%, TER +9.2%, URI +8.7%, NOW +8.2%, EBAY +8%, QSII +7.4%, MXPT +6.1%, MEOH +5.4%, STM +5.4%, EGY +4.3%, DEO +4.3%, RBS +4%, SHW +3.8%, BANC +3.7%, WGL +3.5%, LUV +3.2%, CMCSA +3.2%, XLNX +3.1%, NVMI +2.9%, FCAU +2.9%, FCH +2.8%, CX +2.8%, PHM +2.7%, PULM +2.4%, NOK +2.4%, DOW +2.4%, WTW +2.3%, BGG +2.1%, RDN +1.9%, PYPL +1.7%, VRTX +1.5%, ASX +1.5%, ABMD +1.5%, AZN +1.4%, SDRL +1.3%, JD +1.3%, EGHT +1.2%, JBLU +1.1%, BCS +1.1%, SNY +1.1%, BHI +1.1%, SHPG +1%, WDC +0.9%, MRO +0.8%,

Gapping down: DRWI -19%, MAT -11.1%, ENTL -10.4%, QTM -8.6%, CMPR -8.3%, MCK -5.9%, VAR -5.9%, AGI -5.6%, HMY -5.2%, FFIV -5.2%, CSII -5.2%, POT -5.2%, EURN -4.9%, LVS -4.7%, EFII -4.6%, UN -4.4%, CTXS -4.1%, HIMX -3.9%, ABC -3.3%, WHR -3.3%, HAS -3.2%, KGC -3%, QCOM -3%, KNX -2.9%, GFI -2.6%, ABX -2.5%, AU -2.3%, SSRI -2.3%, GOLD -2.3%, SLW -2.2%, AUY -2.2%, BMY -2.2%, LRCX -2.1%, MUR -2.1%, GDX -1.9%, GDX -1.8%, LYTS -1.8%, NEM -1.7%, RTN -1.7%, LANC -1.6%, MPEL -1.5%, BHP -1.4%, RIO -1.2%, BBL -1.2%, CMO -1.2%, NUTR -1.2%, MGM -1.1%, SLV -1%
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 Overseas Research Calls

Upgrades

  • London Stock Exchange (LDNXF) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
  • Deutsche Boerse AG (DBOEY) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
  • Assicurazioni Generali (ARZGF) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts
  • ABB Ltd (ABB) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Nordea
  • Randgold Resources (GOLD) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Panmure
  • Just Eat plc (JSTLF) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie
  • Iliad SA (ILIAY) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank
  • Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (PAC) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
  • Tullow Oil plc (TUWLF) upgraded to Hold from Sell at Numis

Downgrades

  • Fresnillo (FNLPF) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Numis
  • Associated British Foods (ASBFY) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas
  • Schroders plc (SHNWF) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
  • Intesa Sanpaolo (ISNPY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC

Miscellaneous

  • RSA Insurance (RSNAY) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse
  • Admiral Group (AMIGY) initiated with an Underperform at Credit Suisse
  • Aviva (AVVIY) initiated with a Hold at Societe Generale
  • Standard Life (SLFPF) initiated with a Buy at Societe Generale
  • Engas (ENGGF) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies
  • Johnson Matthey plc (JMPLY) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays
  • Actelion (ALIOY) resumed with a Hold at Deutsche Bank
  • Ryanair Hldgs (RYAAY) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord Genuity
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 Capnia upgraded to Buy at Maxim Group; tgt $5  (0.82)Maxim Group upgrades CAPN to Buy from Hold and sets target price at $5. Capnia is transforming itself from a low margin high spend diagnostics company to a high margin — low spending rare-disease company with what firm views as a de-risked (safety, PK) drug in DCCR. Given the positive data thus far and clinical path laid out by Zafgen, they believe Capnia can be successful in PWS.
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 Mattel target lowered to $34 from $37 at Monness Crespi & Hardt; maintain Buy  (31.56)
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 Overnight Treasury Summary

Treasuries Slip as Bonds of Eurozone Periphery Fall Sharply

  • U.S. Treasuries are trading back towards multi-week lows this morning as global markets remain in risk-on mode after U.K. GDP growth for the fourth quarter exceeded economists' expectations. In other international economic news, Spain's unemployment rate fell more than expected in the fourth quarter and Germany's GfK Consumer Climate Index edged higher. Sovereign debt yields in the eurozone periphery are sharply higher this morning after a ruling from Italy's highest constitutional court makes early elections more probably. Today's U.S. economic calendar features December New Home Sales. The S&P 500 is set to open unchanged at 2,298.2 and the U.S. Dollar Index is adding 0.18% to 100.21. Gold is down 0.63% to $1,190.2/troy oz. and WTI crude is up 0.34% to $52.93/bbl. 
  • Yield Check:
    • 2-yr: +1 bp to 1.24%
    • 5-yr: +1 bp to 2.00%
    • 10-yr: +2 bps to 2.54%
    • 30-yr: +1 bp to 3.11%
  • International News:
    • New Zealand's consumer price index rose 0.4% q/q in the fourth quarter (1.3% y/y), beating both expectations and Q3's 0.3% growth
    • Japan's Corporate Service Price Index climbed 0.4% m/m in December, matching forecasts and accelerating from November's 0.3% growth
    • In the Philippines, GDP grew 1.7% seasonally adjusted from the third to the fourth quarter, missing estimates but beating Q3's 1.5% growth
    • Germany's GfK Consumer Climate Index rose more than expected to 10.2 for February from 9.9 for January
    • Spain's unemployment rate fell more than expected in the fourth quarter to 18.6% from 18.9% in Q3
    • Italian retail sales dropped 0.7% m/m in November (+0.8% y/y), missing forecasts and reversing much of October's 1.2% growth
    • The U.K. economy grew by 0.6% q/q in the fourth quarter (2.2% y/y), topping estimates and matching Q3's pace
      • BBA Mortgage Approvals increased more than expected to 43.2K for December from 40.7K in November
      • The CBI Distributive Trades Survey fell to -8 for January from 35 for December. Economists had expected a much smaller decline
    • Switzerland's trade surplus narrowed to CHF2.72 bln in December from CHF3.50 bln in November
  • Data out Thursday:
    • December Adv. International Trade in Goods (08:30 ET)
    • Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 1/21 and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending 1/14 (08:30 ET)
    • December Leading Indicators (10:00 ET)
    • December New Home Sales (10:00 ET)
    • Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending 1/21 (10:30 ET)
  • Treasury Auction:
    • $28 bln 7-year Treasury auction (results at 13:00 ET)
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 Hasbro downgraded to Neutral at Monness Crespi & Hardt given the challenging retail envm't in 4Q  (86.76)Monness Crespi & Hardt downgrades HAS to Neutral from Buy. Based on NPD data, firm believes industry toy sales were toward the low end of expectations. In addition, Toys «R» Us reported lower than expected sales and highlighted a very promotional environment. Jakks Pacific (JAKK/Not Rated) negatively pre-announced in late December and Mattel (MAT/Buy) reported a meaningful sales and gross margin shortfall last night. Firm continues to expect strong growth in 2017 and believe visibility into 2018 growth is solid as well. Nevertheless, they see more downside than upside to 4Q ests given the negative data points, the challenging Star Wars comparison and the mismatch between HAS's 3Q shipments and sell-through.
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 IPO Radar: A Biotech & Biopharma IPO to Open for Trading Today; Five IPOs Expected to Price TonightIPOs Opening Today:
  • AnaptysBio (ANAB): The biotech developing first-in-class antibody product candidates focused on unmet medical needs in inflammation and immuno-oncology priced its up-sized 5.0 million share IPO at $15, at the midpoint with the $14-$16 expected price range.
  • Obseva (OBSV): The clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing therapeutics for conditions that compromise a woman's reproductive health priced its 6.45 million share IPO at $15, at the midpoint of the $14-$16 expected price range.


Upcoming IPOs:

  • January 27: JELD-WEN (JELD) — The leading door and window manufacturer is expected to price its 25.0 million share IPO within a range of $16-$18.
  • January 27: Jagged Peak Energy (JAG) — The oil & natural gas company focused on acquiring & developing unconventional assets in Southern Delaware Basin is expected to price its 38.2 million share IPO within a range of 16-$18.
  • January 27: REV Group (REVG) — The designer, manufacturer, and distributor of specialty vehicles & aftermarket parts is expected to price its 12.5 million share IPO within a range of $19-$21.
  • January 27: Jounce Therapeutics (JNCE) — The clinical stage immunotherapy focused on transforming treatment of cancer by enabling immune system to attack tumors is expected to price its 5.4 million share IPO within a range of $13-$15.
  • January 27: Visterra (VIST) — The clinical-stage biopharma focused on designing anti-body-based therapies intended to be as effective as single-dose administration is expected to price its 3.9 million share IPO within a range of $12-$14.
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 Brinker target lowered to $54 at Maxim Group  (44.24)Maxim Group lowers their EAT tgt to $54 from $58 following yesterday's release of F2Q17 (December) results. Despite a disappointing comp quarter overall at Chili's, which was amplified by an incident spread by social media in November, firm still contends Chili's new «3 For Me» $10 promotion is helping Chili's withstand the current Casual Dining malaise. Although comps were down slightly for Maggiano's, it outperformed the peer group by its widest margin since 2013. Firm still views the concept as poised for expansion. They expect mgmt to redouble investment efforts in FY17, though still anticipate EAT will return to sustained 10%-15% EPS growth by FY18; Buy.
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 Western Digital target raised to $104 at Maxim Group  (80.02)Maxim Group raises their WDC tgt to $104 from $93. Firm notes results & guidance were strong as previewed, implying SNDK 3D ramp to mature yields proceeding well. Mix shift to NAND flash & still another $700M in HGST & SNDK synergies to be realized during next 12 months will make Mar Q margin guidance cycle normalized levels; Buy.
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  Norfolk Southern target raised to $130 at Cowen  (120.53)Cowen raises their NSC tgt to $130 from $116. NSC continues to deliver on its operational improvement initiatives, and as firm expects volume growth to resume and pricing to improve gradually they are rolling out their 2018 earnings est reflecting 14% growth. For this year they are modeling for a 120 bps OR improvement, and their confidence remains high that the company can achieve its longer-term target of a sub-65 OR by 2020, if not earlier; Outperform.
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 S&P futures vs fair value: -0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.10.

The major averages finished at record highs on Wednesday, with the Dow officially taking out the 20,000 mark. The tone remains positive this morning, with gains in Europe and Asia following yesterday's U.S. strength. The S&P 500 futures are currently flat, trading one point below fair value.

Crude oil spent the overnight session in positive territory and is currently up 0.6% at $53.10/bbl. The gains have come despite a 0.3% uptick in the U.S. Dollar Index (100.21, +0.30), which currently hovers near its overnight high. 

Conversely, U.S. Treasuries are down for the second day in a row, pushing further into negative territory for the week. The benchmark 10-yr yield is up three basis points at 2.54%. 

Today's economic data will include Advance International Trade in Goods (Briefing.com consensus -$65.0 million) and Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 246,000) at 8:30 am ET, while Leading Indicators (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) and New Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus 589,000) will cross the wires at 10:00 am ET.

In U.S. corporate news:

  • AT&T (T 41.24, -0.15): -0.4% despite reporting in-line earnings results.
  • Comcast (CMCSA 75.80, +2.36): +3.2% after beating on the top and bottom lines. The company also decided to increase its dividend. 
  • Ford Motor (F 12.70, -0.09): -0.7% after a miss on revenues overshadowed better than expected earnings.
  • Qualcomm (QCOM 55.05, -1.85): -3.3% after missing on revenue estimates.
  • Bristol-Myers (BMY 48.20, -1.35): -2.7% after reporting worse than expected earnings per share and issuing disappointing guidance.
  • Dow Chemical (DOW 60.90, +0.69): +1.1% after beating on the top and bottom lines.
  • Las Vegas Sands (LVS 54.00, -2.65): -4.7% after missing top and bottom line estimates.
  • eBay (EBAY 32.15, +1.92): +6.4% after beating earnings per share estimates and reporting in-line revenues.
  • Fiat Chrysler (FCAU 11.19, +0.21): +1.9% after reporting better than expected revenues and issuing positive guidance. 
  • Mattel (MAT 27.98, -3.58): -11.3% after reporting worse than expected on the top and bottom lines.

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a broadly higher note with Japan's Nikkei leading the way. Japan's Nikkei +1.8%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng +1.4%, China's Shanghai Composite +0.3%.
    • In economic data:
      • Hong Kong's December trade deficit widened to HKD45.5 billion from HKD34.10 billion. December Imports +8.7% month-over-month (last 7.6%) and December Exports +10.1% month-over-month (last 8.1%)
      • South Korea's February Manufacturing BSI Index 78 (last 73)
      • New Zealand's Q4 CPI +0.4% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.3%; last 0.3%); +1.3% year-over-year (consensus 1.2%; last 0.4%)
      • Singapore's Q4 Unemployment Rate ticked up to 2.2% from 2.1%, as expected. December Industrial Production +6.4% month-over-month (expected -5.8%; last 6.0%); +21.3% year-over-year (consensus 9.5%; last 11.8%)
    • In news:
      • Etsuro Honda, who advises Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, said that it may make sense to compile an extra budget of JPY5 trillion. Mr. Honda also said the dollar/yen pair may climb above 120 this year.
  • Major European indices trade in the green, but gains have been limited for the most part. France's CAC +0.1%, UK's FTSE +0.2%, Germany's DAX +0.4%.
    • In economic data:
      • Germany's February GfK Consumer Climate 10.2 (expected 10.0; last 9.9)
      • UK's Q4 GDP +0.6% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.5%; last 0.6%); +2.2% year-over-year (consensus 2.1%; last 2.2%). Index of Services 1.0% (expected 0.9%; last 1.1%) and BBA Mortgage Approvals 43,200 (expected 41,100; last 40,700). January CBI Distributive Trades Survey -8 (expected 22; last 35)
      • Italy's November Retail Sales -0.7% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; last 1.2%); +0.8% year-over-year (last -0.2%)
      • Swiss December trade surplus narrowed to CHF2.72 billion from CHF3.50 billion (expected surplus of CHF2.81 billion)
      • Spain's Q4 Unemployment Rate fell to 18.6% from 18.9% (expected 18.7%)
    • In news:
      • In Italy, the Constitutional Court amended a run-off rule in the country's electoral law for the lower house. The old rule called for a second vote in the event no party secures more than 40.0% of the vote. Seats will now be appointed proportionally to the percentage of vote received by each party. The ruling could lead to early elections.
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 Cardiovascular Systems target raised to $32 from $27 at Needham following earnings; Think Q3 guidance was conservative, expect additional rev and EBITDA upside  (26.38)
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 Zimmer Biomet target raised to $151 from $148 at Needham after pre-announcing Q4 rev beat; Strong Buy  (115.94)
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 Lam Research target raised to $145 from $135 at Needham; Strong finish to the year, 'robust' envm't in CY17  (116.92)
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 Computer Sciences target raised to $66 from $57 at Stifel ahead of next week's earnings  (61.10)
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Daytrader

 Columbia Banking increases quarterly dividend to $0.22/share from $0.20/share; announces it is discontinuing its special dividend in anticipation of closing its acquisition of Pacific Continental   (41.64)
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  Moneygram shares halted for news pending  (11.88)Shares are currently +30% following a WSJ report overnight that the company is in talks to be acquired
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 On The Wires
  • Fuwei Films Co., Ltd. (FFHL) announced that the Co has signed an annual sales contract for 2017 with Eternal Electronic Material Co., Ltd., one of the Company's top five customers during the year ended December 31, 2015 that purchases polyester film for PCB from Fuwei Films. Polyester film for PCB is a base film for dry film. Eternal Electronic is a well-known manufacturer of dry films globally, which is mainly used in Printed Circuit Boards. Based on the new contract, Fuwei expects that the total polyester film for PCB sales in the first quarter of 2017 will approximately increase by 34.5% compared to the same period of 2016. Fuwei Films continues to improve its product quality and has been supplying Eternal Electronic with advantageous prices and sound services for the past few years.
  • Edeniq and Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) announced that the EPA has approved Little Sioux Corn Processors' registration of its 150 mln gallon per year Marcus, Iowa, ethanol plant for cellulosic ethanol production. Under the terms of its license agreements with ADM and Little Sioux, Edeniq uses its Pathway Technology to measure the amount of cellulosic ethanol produced, and provides the required information to register for D3 cellulosic RINs with the EPA.
  • Itron, Inc. (ITRI) and Bsquare (BSQR) are advancing distributed intelligence by providing a secure OpenWay Riva App Community for edge devices, including meters, sensors and other devices. Itron will use Bsquare's DataV IoT software stack to enable easy app downloads and management for Itron's OpenWay Riva™ network devices. Itron will demonstrate this capability at DistribuTECH in San Diego, Jan. 31 to Feb. 2 in booth #2613.
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 Entegris target raised to $22 at Stifel ahead of earnings  (19.20)Stifel raises their ENTG tgt to $22 from $19. Firm expects the company to at least meet their estimates of $282.3 million in revenue and pro-forma EPS of $0.21, including options but excluding amortization. With a favorable semiconductor envm't and new opportunities gaining traction, firm believes the company is well positioned to display another above-average growth year in 2017; Buy.
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 S&P futures vs fair value: -1.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.90.

The S&P 500 futures trade two points (0.1%) below fair value.

The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 259,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 246,000. Today's tally was above the revised prior week count of 237,000 (from 234,000). As for continuing claims, they rose to 2.100 million from the revised count of 2.059 million (from 2.046 million).

December International Trade in Goods decreased by $65.00 billion on the back of a unrevised $65.30 billion decline in November.

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  Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
:

  • NURO +16.4%, URI +9.6%, (will acquire NES for approximately $965 million in cash; acquisition is expected to be immediately accretive to United Rentals' adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow generation for the full year 2017)
  • QSII +7.4%, NOW +7.4%, EBAY +7.2%, TER +6.6%, (also quarterly dividend increased 17% to $0.07 beginning 1Q17), SHW +6.1%, MEOH +5.4%
  • CRR +5.3%, STM +4.9%, DEO +4.2%, LUV +3.7%, NVMI +3.3%, RCL +3%, IVZ +2.9%, XLNX +2.4%, FCAU +2.4%, FCAU +2.4%, PHM +2.3%
  • BGG +2.1%, CMCSA +2%, RDN +1.9%, DOW +1.9%, ERIC +1.7%, BIIB +1.6%, VRTX +1.5%, ASX +1.5%, ABMD +1%

M&A news:

  • MGI +30.5% (near a deal to be acquired by an Alibaba (BABA) affiliate, according to the WSJ)
  • WGL +3.3% (WGL Holdings to be acquired by AltaGas for $88.25/share in cash, or approximately CAD$8.4 bln)

Other news:

  • AVGR +37% (Avinger announces positive two-year clinical data from the pivotal VISION study of the company's Lumivascular technology)
  • EGY +4.3% ( reported Q4 production results)
  • RBS +3.6% (provides update to write-downs related to RMBS investigations and litigation)
  • NOK +2.6% (in sympathy with ERIC)
  • WTW +2.3% (Kraft Heinz and Oprah Winfrey announce joint venture called Mealtime Stories)
  • PULM +1.8% (following 65%+ move higher on Wednesday)
  • FCH +1.5% (following late move higher on sale speculation)
  • PYPL +1.2% (in sympathy with EBAY)

Analyst comments:

  • BANC +4.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at FBR & Co)
  • SGMS +2.9% (upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill)
  • ABB +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Nordea)
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Daytrader

 European Summary

Eurozone Yields Jump

  • Eurozone sovereign debt yields are trading sharply higher today and French and German borrowing costs actually hit one-year highs at the 10-year maturity. As we noted on Wednesday morning, the technical backdrop favors the reflation trade as all major countries' 10-year yields are above their 50-day moving averages which are in turn above their 200-day moving averages. The probability of early Italian elections being called (possibily as soon as June) is now higher after a ruling from Italy's highest constitutional court. U.K. GDP growth beat forecast in the fourth quarter and the 10-year Gilt yield is at an 8-month high
  • The highest constitutional court in Italy made a ruling today that virtually guarantees that the electoral system in the lower chamber of Italy's parliament becomes more like that of the Senate. The main takeaway is that early elections (before the current legislatures scheduled termination in February 2018) are now more likely
  • Central Banks:
    • Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said today that Germany was the biggest beneficiary from the introduction of the euro and that the EUR780 bln of asset purchases by the ECB that are scheduled this year are set in stone
      • He said that the ECB's monetary policies were justified by its constant undershooting of its inflation target (at or below 2%)
    • ECB Executive Board Member Yves Mersch said today that the central bank's ultra-accommodative monetary policy was not the greatest factor in creating repo market tensions. The ECB modified its securities lending program at the December meeting of the Governing Council to try to ease the squeeze on collateral
  • European Economic Data:
    • Germany's GfK Consumer Climate Index rose more than expected to 10.2 for February from 9.9 for January
    • Spain's unemployment rate fell more than expected in the fourth quarter to 18.6% from 18.9% in Q3
    • Italian retail sales dropped 0.7% m/m in November (+0.8% y/y), missing forecasts and reversing much of October's 1.2% growth
    • The U.K. economy grew by 0.6% q/q in the fourth quarter (2.2% y/y), topping estimates and matching Q3's pace
      • BBA Mortgage Approvals increased more than expected to 43.2K for December from 40.7K in November
      • The CBI Distributive Trades Survey fell to -8 for January from 35 for December. Economists had expected a much smaller decline
    • Switzerland's trade surplus narrowed to CHF2.72 bln in December from CHF3.50 bln in November
  • Yield Check:
    • France, 10-yr OAT: +1 bp to 0.99%
    • Germany, 10-yr Bund: -1 bp to 0.46%
    • Greece, 10-yr note: -1 bp to 6.80%
    • Italy, 10-yr BTP: +6 bps to 2.17%
    • Portugal, 10-yr PGB: +6 bps to 4.03%
    • Spain, 10-yr ODE: +8 bps to 1.53%
    • U.K., 10-yr Gilt: +2 bps to 149%9%
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 Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
:

  • MAT -12.2%, CMPR -11.4%, (very light volume — also announces intention to implement organizational changes aimed at decentralizing its operations)
  • MCK -6.1%, (also enters into agreement to acquire CoverMyMeds for approx $1.1 bln), EURN -6.1%, VAR -5.9%, SWK -5.9%, FFIV -5.2%, POT -4.8%
  • LVS -4.7%, UN -4.7%, EFII -4.6%, WHR -4.3%, ADS -4.1%, CTXS -3.9%, (also increases buyback $500 mln; LogMeIn stockholders approve issuance of shares of its common stock to equityholders of Citrix Systems in connection with its proposed merger with Citrix; merger is expected to be completed on January 31, 2017)
  • QCOM -3.9%, RTN -3%, KNX -2.9%, BMY -2.8%, NG -2.5%, QTM -2.2%, GDX -2.2%, WASH -2.1%, CLFD -2.1%, LYTS -1.8%, LRCX -1.6%, LANC -1.6%
  • CAT -1.4%, SXC -1.3%, CMO -1.2%, (light volume), NUTR -1.2%

M&A news:

  • JNJ -0.5% (to acquire Actelion (ALIOY) for $280 per share; will spin-out of new R&D Co)

Select LVS peers showing weakness:

  • WYNN -1.5%, MPEL -1.5%, MGM -1.4%

Select metals/mining stocks trading lower:

  • AGI -7.5%, HMY -4.4%, ABX -3.2%, AU -3.1%, KGC -3%, SLW -2.8%, AUY -2.8%, GOLD -2.8%, GFI -2.6%, NEM -2.6%, GDX -2.3%, BBL -1.7%, RIO -1.5%, SLV -1.5%, BHP -1.2%

Other news:

  • DRWI -23.8% (reduced the exercise price of its outstanding six-month warrants issued August 2016)
  • ENTL -10.8% (prices 3.53 mln shares of common stock at $17.00 per share)
  • AGI -7.5% (announces $250 mln bought deal offering; to sell 31.45 mln common shares at $7.95/share)
  • HAS -3.8% (following MAT earnings/guidance)
  • ABC -3.3% (following MCK earnings/guidance and acquisition news)

Analyst comments:

  • UTX -0.9% (downgraded to Hold ratings from Buy at Argus)
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Daytrader

 Gapping up/down: NOW +7%, EBAY +7%, SHW +6%, STM +5%, and DOW +2% after earnings, ABB +1% after upgrade; MAT -12%, FFIV -5%, POT -5%, LVS -5%, BMY -3% and CAT -1% after earnings

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
:

  • NURO +16.4%, URI +9.6%, (will acquire NES for approximately $965 million in cash; acquisition is expected to be immediately accretive to United Rentals' adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow generation for the full year 2017)
  • QSII +7.4%, NOW +7.4%, EBAY +7.2%, TER +6.6%, (also quarterly dividend increased 17% to $0.07 beginning 1Q17), SHW +6.1%, MEOH +5.4%
  • CRR +5.3%, STM +4.9%, DEO +4.2%, LUV +3.7%, NVMI +3.3%, RCL +3%, IVZ +2.9%, XLNX +2.4%, FCAU +2.4%, PHM +2.3%
  • BGG +2.1%, CMCSA +2%, RDN +1.9%, DOW +1.9%, ERIC +1.7%, BIIB +1.6%, VRTX +1.5%, ASX +1.5%, ABMD +1%

M&A news:

  • MGI +30.5% (near a deal to be acquired by an Alibaba (BABA) affiliate, according to the WSJ)
  • WGL +3.3% (WGL Holdings to be acquired by AltaGas for $88.25/share in cash, or approximately CAD$8.4 bln)

Other news:

  • AVGR +37% (Avinger announces positive two-year clinical data from the pivotal VISION study of the company's Lumivascular technology)
  • EGY +4.3% ( reported Q4 production results)
  • RBS +3.6% (provides update to write-downs related to RMBS investigations and litigation)
  • NOK +2.6% (in sympathy with ERIC)
  • WTW +2.3% (Kraft Heinz and Oprah Winfrey announce joint venture called Mealtime Stories)
  • PULM +1.8% (following 65%+ move higher on Wednesday)
  • FCH +1.5% (following late move higher on sale speculation)
  • PYPL +1.2% (in sympathy with EBAY)

Analyst comments:

  • BANC +4.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at FBR & Co)
  • SGMS +2.9% (upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill)
  • ABB +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Nordea)

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
:

  • MAT -12.2%, CMPR -11.4%, (very light volume — also announces intention to implement organizational changes aimed at decentralizing its operations)
  • MCK -6.1%, (also enters into agreement to acquire CoverMyMeds for approx $1.1 bln), EURN -6.1%, VAR -5.9%, SWK -5.9%, FFIV -5.2%, POT -4.8%
  • LVS -4.7%, UN -4.7%, EFII -4.6%, WHR -4.3%, ADS -4.1%, CTXS -3.9%, (also increases buyback $500 mln; LogMeIn stockholders approve issuance of shares of its common stock to equityholders of Citrix Systems in connection with its proposed merger with Citrix; merger is expected to be completed on January 31, 2017)
  • QCOM -3.9%, RTN -3%, KNX -2.9%, BMY -2.8%, NG -2.5%, QTM -2.2%, GDX -2.2%, WASH -2.1%, CLFD -2.1%, LYTS -1.8%, LRCX -1.6%, LANC -1.6%
  • CAT -1.4%, SXC -1.3%, CMO -1.2%, (light volume), NUTR -1.2%

M&A news:

  • JNJ -0.5% (to acquire Actelion (ALIOY) for $280 per share; will spin-out of new R&D Co)

Select LVS peers showing weakness:

  • WYNN -1.5%, MPEL -1.5%, MGM -1.4%

Select metals/mining stocks trading lower:

  • AGI -7.5%, HMY -4.4%, ABX -3.2%, AU -3.1%, KGC -3%, SLW -2.8%, AUY -2.8%, GOLD -2.8%, GFI -2.6%, NEM -2.6%, GDX -2.3%, BBL -1.7%, RIO -1.5%, SLV -1.5%, BHP -1.2%

Other news:

  • DRWI -23.8% (reduced the exercise price of its outstanding six-month warrants issued August 2016)
  • ENTL -10.8% (prices 3.53 mln shares of common stock at $17.00 per share)
  • AGI -7.5% (announces $250 mln bought deal offering; to sell 31.45 mln common shares at $7.95/share)
  • HAS -3.8% (following MAT earnings/guidance)
  • ABC -3.3% (following MCK earnings/guidance and acquisition news)

Analyst comments:

  • UTX -0.9% (downgraded to Hold ratings from Buy at Argus)
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Daytrader

SPY слабее всех сегодня на открытии
Наздак и доу уже пробили хаи
 IWM на шорт
GDX закрытие гепа

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sereja К

KSU
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sereja К

 QCOM
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sereja К

 ABC геп
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sereja К

 Спай шортит кто нибудь? Какие цели смотрите?
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sereja К

TCBI фигура
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sereja К

ZBH от 115 лимитку на бай выставил
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sereja К

 доу снова вверх полез
HP купил от 77
ROK на прдажу сегодня
CSX тоже
 что ж это рынок то творит то…
 сегодня тоже расти будет?
 что думаете за этот момент? А то я в продаже…
Алексей Михайлович, трудно что то сказать за продажи…
Алексей Михайлович, рынок сейчас совсем не охотно что товедтся на продажи
Алексей Михайлович, скольок дней не шорчу его последние, что то не везет с этим
Алексей Михайлович, но и покупать рыка не поднимается
sereja К, да вот тож... 
sereja К, ну вроде как исправляется) Припустило его
sereja К, наздак вон уже лои обновляет
sereja К, так что не все еще потеряно
sereja К, шорт вполне возможно что еще увидим сегодня по рынку нормальный. Пробую сидеть дальше
Алексей Михайлович, рисково…
 SPGI
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sereja К

 WAT
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sereja К

AXP
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sereja К

шорт от 50 центов по AXP захожу
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sereja К

URI
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sereja К

к вивапу целюсь
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sereja К

 AIG на коррекцию
CLR с чата
 Да уж… никуда эти продажи не годятся мои
 DD 78 держит
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sereja К

SPLK
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sereja К

WPZ

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sereja К

JEC шорт
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sereja К

 LLY 75,2
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sereja К

 Кто там шортил SPY?))
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sereja К

тому свезло))
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sereja К

 PE шорт
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sereja К

Никита Строкин, тоже на нее посмотрел только что. Твоего сообщения не видел
 PWR слабый
AA шорт
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sereja К

CCI
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sereja К

В шорте по спаю видимо не зря сижу)
Алексей Михайлович, я тоже уже подумываю зашортить.
Алексей Михайлович, но уже поздновато мне брать…
Алексей Михайлович, разве что по выше заскок будет, ближе к верхам, тогда зайду
sereja К, ахах )) Если он туда снова пойдет, то я выйду уже с него, замучал он меня.
sereja К, … уже часть фиксанул если что 
sereja К, набирал на верхах
 SHLD 40 центов потенциала еще есть
 FRC
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sereja К

MNST
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sereja К

 CRM
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sereja К

 YELP база на хаях
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sereja К

 ССJ под 13
LVS на возврат
VAR лонг от 86,80
NXPI под фигурой
On The Wires
  • Kandi Technologies Group, Inc. (KNDI) announced that the Geely Global Hawk electric vehicle model JL7001BEV18 (the Kandi Model K11) developed by Kandi Electric Vehicles Group Co., Ltd. has been included in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China's Directory of Recommended Models for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Demonstration and Promotion in its first public announcement of 2017. The Directory of New Energy Vehicles was published on January 23, 2017, and highlighted a total of 185 vehicles, of which 36 were commercial vehicles, 73 were passenger vehicles, and 76 were buses.
  • Banco Bradesco S.A. (BBD), referring to the news published on this date in the newspaper «Valor Econômico», announces to its shareholders and to the market in general that until now the Company has not become aware, officially, of any new facts concerning the so called «Operação Zelotes». In any case, Bradesco reiterates its previous statements to the effect that it has not carried out any proposal, contract or payment to anyone for any kind of advantage with the Board of Tax Appeals «CARF». The Company also reports that the tax proceeding with CARF, which is being investigated, is already under the legal aid of renowned tax lawyers and was unanimously tried in disfavor of Bradesco, and is currently under the Judiciary.
  • Catalyst Biosciences (CBIO) announced that data from two of its investigational coagulation factors will be presented at the 10th Annual Congress of the European Association of Haemophilia and Allied Disorders being held in Paris, France from February 1 to 3, 2017. The poster presentations, by Catalyst and its collaborators, will be available for viewing throughout the conference.
  • On January 26, 2017, Communications, Sales & Leasing (CSAL) announced that it is seeking to amend its existing senior secured credit agreement to reprice in full the Company's existing term loans.
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 Wesco sees Q1 sales down 3% to flat vs. expectations for roughly flat ($1.79 bln), sees operating margin of 3.8-4.1%  (74.45)
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Daytrader

 
  S&P futures vs fair value: -1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.60.

Investors have displayed caution this morning after the major indices closed at record highs yesterday. The S&P 500 futures are relatively flat, trading one point below fair value. 

Earnings have been this morning's central focus as many large-cap names have reported between yesterday's close and this morning's opening bell. The results have been generally negative with Celgene (CELG 113.48, -0.50), Caterpillar (CAT 97.14, -1.01), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY 48.52, -1.03), Ford Motor (F 12.74, -0.05), and Raytheon (RTN 140.36, -6.51) all trading lower in pre-market action. 

Treasuries remain in negative territory, but have come up in recent action amid this morning's earnings reports. The benchmark 10-yr yield is two basis points higher at 2.53%.

On the data front, the latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 259,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 246,000. Today's tally was above the revised prior week count of 237,000 (from 234,000). Continuing claims rose to 2.100 million from the revised count of 2.059 million (from 2.046 million).

Separately, December International Trade in Goods decreased by $65.00 billion on the back of a unrevised $65.30 billion decline in November.

Today's remaining economic reports, December Leading Indicators (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) and December New Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus 589,000), will both cross the wires at 10:00 am ET.

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Daytrader

 TAL Education upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies  (80.27)
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Daytrader

 Enova International: Nakula Management lowers active stake to 4.75% (Prior 5.57%)  (14.25)
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Daytrader

 Event Trader: The Day Ahead- January 26

Markets are holding on to yesterday's gains. The biggest push for the most recent leg is coming from two sources: 1) Tech company earnings have generally been impressive allowing FANG to be a leader once again and 2) Asian economic data has shown that the region is performing well. Not a surprise given the tech influence in the region as both data points are supportive of each other.

There were a few items of interest on the macro front overnight. One macro play I am watching here is the euro which is giving up some of its recent gains. I have seen a few headlines from the Eurogroup meeting that have members down playing inflation readings in the region. I am not seeing any news from the Weidmann speech this morning that would dispute these claims. I still think the euro will be pressured higher on prices. 

The first look at the United Kingdom GDP beat expectations as the country continues to outperform the post-Brexit expectations. We still need to see how business sentiment reacts as we get closer to an actual physical Brexit. But so far the country is showing signs of proving the gloom and doom Academics were wrong. Again, this is far too early to call a win. We need to see how the economy reacts when the actual Brexit nears and trade deals are re-done. But it is important if the UK shows success given the elections that are on tap for the EU this year.

China continues to tighten capital flow controls as it has ordered its banks to cut back on loans. This is in line with comments made in November that it expected to tighten credit conditions in 2017.

  • GOOGL Long- We are up about 16% in the name. It remains one of the biggest positions in the portfolio. Tonight we will have earnings and I will post the preview shortly. The results the past two quarters have been impressive and we are seeing the stock break out ahead of tonight's report. I will likely trim some of the position to lock in some profits. But I still view this as one of the best companies in the world and a core holding for the long term. If it sells off on good results I will add back to the position.

With regards to this comment, I am changing the process to reflect a chronological approach rather than a regional. The assumption here is that it will be a better reflection in terms of the ebb and flow of market action in the overnight session. I am looking for ways to make this data more actionable so if there is any thoughts, please feel free to write in to feedback. 

Overnight Macro News:

  • Japan PPI (6:50pm)- +0.4% y/y, in line with expectations. 
  • Eurogroup Meetings (All Day)- We should be seeing comments on Brexit, the ECB buying program, and debt levels fro Greece, Portugal and Italy cross all day.
  • Switzerland Trade Balance (2am)- CHF 2.72 bln surplus, lower than expected surplus as weak euro hurting country exports.
  • Spain Unemployment Rate (2am)- 18.6%, beats expectations but still far too high.
  • Germany GfK Consumer Survey (2am)- 10.2, slight beat; Ifo business survey missed yesterday.
  • Hong Kong Trade Balance (3:30am)- HKD 45.5 bln deficit, higher than expected deficit; Exports increased 10% y/y and Imports were up 9%, both showing signs of health in the Asian region.
  • Germany Bundesbank's Weidmann speaks (3:30am)- Remains relatively quiet. I am seeing some comments about officals at the EU meeting talking down inflation which has helped drop the euro back to the 1.07 area. 
  • U.K. Q4 GDP- Prelim (4:30am)- Q4 GDP increased 0.6% q/q, beating expectations; Mortgage Approvals also beat expectations. 
  • Italy 10-year Bond Auction, Retail Sales (5am)- Retail Sales fell 0.7% m/m, missing expectations by a fairly wide margin; Not seeing the results from the auction.
  • December International Trade in Goods (8:30am)- Comes in line with a deficit of $65.0 bln. 
  • Initial Claims (8:30am)- 259K, Briefing.com consensus 246K
  • Mexico Trade Balance (9am)- $28 mln surplus, Expected to see a deficit of approx $500 mln
  • December Leading Indicators (10am)- Briefing.com consensus +0.5%
  • December New Home Sales (10am)- Briefing.com consensus 589K
  • Natural Gas Inventories (10:30am)
  • 7-Year Note Auction (1pm)
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  First Financial Northwest reports Q4 EPS of $0.29 vs the $0.25 single analyst estimate  (19.00)
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  Fuwei Films +48% on sales contract news — see 8:29  (2.31)
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 On The Wires
  • Medtronic plc (MDT) announced that the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) will cover leadless cardiac pacemakers, as outlined in the agency's final National Coverage Determination. This decision will provide Medicare patient access to leadless pacemakers, consistent with the FDA-approved labeling for the devices, through Medicare's policy of Coverage with Evidence Development (CED).
  • Synopsys, Inc. (SNPS) announced that Starblaze has achieved first-pass silicon success for its new MB1000 enterprise SSD controller using Synopsys' DesignWare ARC HS38 processor as well as DDR4 and PCI Express controller and PHY IP. Starblaze selected the ARC HS38 processor because it offers multicore support for SMP Linux, a 40-bit physical address space and the ARC Processor EXtension (APEX) technology that enabled them to add instructions to reduce I/O latency. Furthermore, the ARC HS38 processor offers higher performance at half the power consumption compared to competitive processors. Starblaze also selected DesignWare DDR4 and PCI Express 3.1 IP for its high quality and rich set of features. By using DesignWare IP, Starblaze met their performance requirements and delivered a differentiated, production-ready design within a tight time-to-market schedule.
  • BioPharmX Corporation (BPMX) will share details of a new two-photon fluorescence microscopy technique to visualize minocycline skin penetration along with research that correlates the new visualization method with the company's clinical data. The research will be presented during two sessions at SPIE Photonics West, the world's largest multidisciplinary event for photonics, Jan. 28 and 29 in San Francisco.
  • SharpSpring, Inc. (SHSP) secured 213 new customers for its flagship marketing automation platform during the fourth quarter of 2016. At quarter-end, the company had 1,139 agency partners and over 5,250 businesses using its marketing automation platform, which was up 80% from 2,925 businesses at the end of last year. Annualized recurring revenue from the new customer additions totaled approximately $1.5 million.
  • Airline operators seeking surplus parts can now turn to UTC Aerospace Systems, a unit of United Technologies Corp. (UTX), for ready access to OEM-certified serviceable parts. Propelled by a strategic supply and distribution agreement with VAS Aero Services, a global leader in aviation logistics and aftermarket services, UTC Aerospace Systems is significantly improving parts availability to meet growing customer demand.
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  Hearing Multi-Color was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Hilliard Lyons  (79.75 -1.40)
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 Caterpillar downgraded to Sell from Hold at Standpoint Research; tgt $84  (96.79 -1.36)
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 Hearing Formula One Group was initiated premarket with a Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $29  (30.86 +0.12)
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 Opening Market Summary: Investors Display Caution at Stock Market Open

Equity indices opened Thursday's session relatively flat as investors display caution after the major averages posted record highs on Wednesday. The Nasdaq shows relative strength with a 0.2% gain.

Cyclical sectors are the early leaders as all six post modest gains out of the gate. Conversely, on the non-cyclical side, four of the five sectors are lower, with real estate (+0.4%) showing relative strength.

U.S. Treasuries opened Thursday lower, increasing their losses for the week. The benchmark 10-yr yield is currently up two basis points at 2.53%.

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  Rite Aid shares higher by 4% in early trade; Walgreens (WBA) CEO said at annual meeting that company continues to pursue FTC approval of RiteAid (RAD) M&A deal  (7.22 +0.32)Other Potential Related Stocks: FRED
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 Sector Summary: Technology (XLK -0.28%) trading lower today, behind the broader market

The tech sector — XLK — trades behind the broader market. Semiconductors, meanwhile, display relative weakness as the SOX index trades -0.20%. Within the SOX index, TER (+3.97%) outperforms, while CAVM (-0.78%) lags. Among other major indices, the SPY is trading 0.01% higher, while the QQQ +0.15% and the NASDAQ +0.28% trade modestly higher on the session. Among tech bellwethers, FB (+0.58%) is showing relative strength, while AMX (-1.78%) lags.

Notable gainers following earnings:

  • EBAY (+6.2%) reported better than expected Q4 earnings and in-line revs; guided Q1 below expectations; sees FY17 earnings below expectations, revs in-line, NOW (+5.2%) reported better than expected Q4 EPS and revs; guided Q1 revs above expectations, FY17 revs above expectations, WDC (+1.7%), ERIC (+0.2%)

Notable laggards following earnings:

  • QCOM (-5.3%) reported better than expected Q1 earnings, but missed revenue expectations; guided Q2 EPS and revs in-line, XLNX (-2.1%), LRCX (-1.9%), T (-0.7%) reported in-line Q4 EPS and revs

Gainers on news:

  • MGI (+9.2%) co agreed to be acquired by Alibaba's (BABA) Ant Financial for $13.25/share in cash, or approximately $880 mln.
  • CHTR (+6.7%) according to a WSJ article, CHTR and Verizon (VZ) may be evaluating a merger. CNBC's David Faber stated on air that there apparently has been not much going on in regards to the VZ/CHTR deal, but that merger talks have been a subject of conversation.
  • QSII (+5.0%) co's Principal Accounting Officer John Stumpf resigned effective February 10.

Laggards on news:

  • CMPR (-12.3%) co announced intention to implement organizational changes aimed at decentralizing its operations.
  • NUAN (-0.5%) activist Carl Icahn lowered passive stake to 4.43% (To approximately 12.91 mln shares vs. approximately 19.68 mln held at the end of Q3).
  • FIS (-0.4%) co increased its quarterly dividend to $0.29/ share from $0.26/share.

Scheduled to report earnings after the bell:

  • MSFT GOOG INTC PYPL VMW KLAC MXIM JNPR ETFC FLEX MSCC AZPN NATI PFPT LITE SYNA CLS OSIS SMCI INVN AMCC UIS SHOR DGII GSIT
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  Economic Summary: Jobless Claims above expectations; Q4 GDP — Final tomorrow at 8;30 ET

Economic Data Summary:

  • December Advance International Trade in Goods -$65.0 bln vs Briefing.com consensus of -$65.0 bln; November was -$65.3 bln
  • Weekly Initial Claims 259K vs Briefing.com consensus of 246K; Last Week was 234K
  • Weekly Continuing Claims 2.1 M vs Briefing.com consensus of; Last Week was 2.046 M
    • The headline for initial claims was a bit disappointing, yet the key takeaway is that there wasn't really any major deviation from the underlying trend considering how low the initial claims reading has been in recent weeks. To wit, taking into account the latest reading, the four-week moving average for initial claims decreased by 2,000 to 245,500, which is the lowest level since November 3, 1973.
  • December Leading Indicators +0.5% vs Briefing.com consensus of 0.5%; November was 0.0%
  • December New Home Sales -10.4% vs Briefing.com consensus of 589K; November was 592K

Upcoming Economic Data:

  • Fourth Quarter GDP-Advance due out Friday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 2.2%; Q3 — Final was 3.5%)
  • Fourth Quarter GDP- Deflator due out Friday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 2.1%; Q3 — Final was 1.4%)
  • December Durable Goods due out Friday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 3.0%; November was -4.6%)
  • December Durable Goods Ex-Trans due out Friday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 0.5%; November was 0.5%)
  • January Michigan Sentiment — Final due out Friday at 10:00 (Briefing.com consensus of 98.0; December was 98.1)

Upcoming Fed/Treasury Events:

  • Treasury to auction off: $28 bln in 7 Year Treasury Notes — today at 13:00 ET.

Other International Events of Interest

  • UK's Q4 GDP +0.6% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.5%; last 0.6%); +2.2% year-over-year (consensus 2.1%; last 2.2%). Index of Services 1.0% (expected 0.9%; last 1.1%) and BBA Mortgage Approvals 43,200 (expected 41,100; last 40,700). January CBI Distributive Trades Survey -8 (expected 22; last 35)
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 JetBlue Airways sees January RASM down 8-9%  (21.25 -0.52)
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 Shanghai Petrochemical discloses the resignation of CFO Ye Guohua due to a new working arrangement, effective today  (63.14 +0.24)
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 Early Options Activity

Taking an early look at the options market, we found the following names that may be worth watching throughout the day for further indication of investor expectations given their options volume and implied volatility movement.

Stocks seeing volatility buying (bullish call buying/bearish put buying):

Calls:

  • ABT Feb 42 calls are seeing interest with 2530 contracts trading vs. open int of 2980, pushing implied vol up around 1 points to ~16% —  2500 contracts traded in a single transaction. Target lowered to $46 from $48 at RBC Capital Mkts following earnings yesterday morning.  Co is expected to report its next quarterly earnings report late April.  Alere confirmed its pending acquisition by Abbott Laboratories has been cleared by the European Commission.

Puts:

  • GLNG Feb 25 puts are seeing interest with 9830 contracts trading vs. open int of 3610, pushing implied vol up around 7 points to ~53% — over 7400 contracts traded in a single transaction. We noted activity in the same strike earlier this week.  Co is expected to report earnings late February (likely outside of expiration).

Stocks seeing volatility selling:

  • FCAU, POT, DOW, CAT, CELG, CTXS implied vol is lower following earnings/guidance

Sentiment: The CBOE Put/Call ratio is currently: 1.08… VIX: (10.97, +0.16, +1.5%).
February 17 is options expiration — the last day to trade February equity options.
*Please use the Talk to Us link at the top of the page to provide feedback on this comment as well as the OPTNX comments.

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 AnaptysBio opens for trading at $16 after pricing IPO at $15
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 Starbucks First Quarter Earnings Preview  (58.60 -0.09)
  • SBUX is expected to report first quarter earnings tonight after the close. There is a conference call scheduled for 17:00 (the company typically provides guidance in the press release).
  • First Quarter Capital IQ consensus calls for EPS of $0.52 (versus $0.43 last year) on revenue of $5.85 billion (+8% YoY). The current consensus is within the company's guidance range of $0.51-0.52.

Guidance:

  • The company is expected to guide for the second quarter where Capital IQ consensus stands at $0.46.
  • As far as FY17 guidance, the company expects ~2,100 net new stores globally. Mid-single digit comparable store sales growth globally. Consolidated revenue growth in the double digits (current Capital IQ consensus calls for rev growth of +8.4%).

Metrics:

  • Taking a look at last quarter, U.S. comparable store sales increase of 4% (versus 8% last year) was comprised of 6% increase in average ticket and 1% decrease in traffic.
  • After adjusting for the estimated impact of order consolidation related to the new Starbucks Rewards loyalty program, average ticket grew 4% and traffic grew 1%.
  • Looking ahead to the first quarter, the Street is expecting comps of +3.8%.
  • The next area of interest will be margins. The Americas segment delivered both record operating income of $1.1 billion, and operating margin of 27.6% driven by strong performance in its businesses across the region.
  • Non-GAAP operating income increased 18% over last year to $988 million, while operating margin expanded 210 basis points to 26.9%. This improvement was primarily driven by sales leverage that was partially offset by partner investments.
  • Margin expansion in China Asia Pacific was primarily driven by the transition to a value-added tax structure in China, increased sales leverage and higher income from its joint venture operations.

Analyst Notes

  • Wedbush expects Americas comp momentum, accelerating CAP unit growth, a successful EMEA turnaround, and multiple CPG and emerging market opportunities to drive consistent mid-to-high teens annual EPS growth. Their recent checks of 5% of U.S. co-owned locations imply a FQ1 comp of ~4% in U.S., about in-line with 4% Americas consensus. Mobile order and pay, remodels and drive-thru additions, beverage innovation and seasonal LTOs, and food continue to be cited as drivers, while cannibalization remains the primary reason for a decline in sales. They model 4% Americas SSS growth in FQ1, composed of 1% tx growth and 3% avg. check; Outperform, $65 tgt.

Options Activity

  • Based on SBUX options, the current implied volatility stands at ~ 37%, which is 46% higher than historical volatility (over the past 30 days). Based on the SBUX Weekly Jan27 $59 straddle, the options market is currently pricing in a move of ~5% in either direction by weekly expiration (Friday)

Technical Perspective

  • SBUX shares have outperformed the Nasdaq YTD with SBUX increasing by 6% vs 5% gain in the index. SBUX tends to have 2-4% reactions to earnings. On a positive report, look for resistance near the $59.25-59.50 area, while support sits near the $57.50-57.75 vicinity.
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  Cardinal Financial increases quarterly dividend to $0.13/share from $0.12/share  (31.50 +0.07)
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 Notable movers of interest: URI +12% on Q4 EPS and revenue beats

The following are some of today's most notable movers of interest, categorized by market capitalization (large cap over $10 billion and mid cap between $2-10 billion) and ranked by % change (all stocks over 100K average daily volume).

Large Cap Gainers

  • SHW (307.95 +8.65%): Reports Q4 EPS and revenue beats.
  • LUV (53.09 +7.34%): Reports Q4 EPS beat.
  • CHTR (329.05 +6.04%): Shares spike on reports the company may be targeted by Verizon (VZ).

Large Cap Losers

  • MAT (27.27 -13.59%): Shares drop after Q4 EPS and revenue misses.
  • MCK (140.02 -7.34%): Shares drop on Q3 EPS miss.
  • WHR (178.61 -6.09%): Reports Q4 EPS miss.

Mid Cap Gainers

  • URI (128 +12.03%): Reports Q4 EPS and revenue beats; guides FY17 revs in-line; acquires NES rentals.
  • TCBI (86.15 +8.91%): Shares rise on Q4 EPS beat.
  • RAD (7.17 +3.95%): Shares higher in early trade after Walgreens (WBA) CEO said at annual meeting that company continues to pursue FTC approval of RiteAid (RAD) M&A deal.

Mid Cap Losers

  • CMPR (85.99 -12.41%): Announces intention to implement organizational changes aimed at decentralizing its operations.
  • AGI (7.52 -10.32%): Announces $250 mln bought deal offering; to sell 31.45 mln common shares at $7.95/share.
  • VAR (86.73 -6.16%): Shares fall on guidance below consensus.
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 Morning Commodities: Crude rallies sharply to erase all of yesterday's post-EIA losses ahead of tomorrow's rig count; natural gas up for the 4th session on a bullish inventory report
  • Crude oil futures rallied sharply to erase all of yesterday's post-EIA losses ahead of tomorrow's rig count data in morning pit trading
    • Mar 2017 crude oil futures were up about $1.06 (+2.0%) around the $53.81/barrel level
    • Baker Hughes rig count data will be released tomorrow at 10:30 am ET
  • Natural gas remained on track to close higher for a 4th consecutive session on a bullish EIA report which showed a natural gas inventory draw above Consensus
    • Mar 2017 natural gas futures were up $0.13 (+3.9%) around the $3.48/MMBtu level following the EIA release.
    • EIA highlights:
      • Natural gas inventory showed a draw of -119 bcf vs expectations for inventory to be a draw of approximately -117 bcf.
      • Working gas in storage was 2,798 Bcf as of Friday, Jan 20, 2017, according to EIA estimates.
      • Stocks were 348 Bcf less than last year at this time and 20 Bcf below the five-year avg of 2,818 Bcf.
      • At 2,798 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
  • In precious metals, gold hit a fresh 2-week low earlier on continued strength in the dollar index
    • Feb 2017 gold futures were down about $12.00 (-1.0%) around the $1185.90/oz level
    • Mar 2017 silver futures were down about $0.23 (-1.4%) around the $16.75/oz level
  • The dollar index was +0.6% around the 100.60 level, weighed on precious metals
    • Commodities, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, were +0.3% around the 88.65 level
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  Herc Holdings extending recent gains and making new all-time highs (+12% in the week)  (48.40 +2.72)
  • Hertz Global (HTZ) spin-off Herc Holdings (HRI) is equipment rental supplier — today's strength coincides with upside move in peer United Rentals (URI +12%) following earnings/acquisition news.
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 Sector Summary: The Healthcare sector (-0.41%) is trading lower today, lagging the S&P 500 (-0.08%)General Commentary: Industry heavyweights Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, -0.59%), Bristol-Myers (BMY, -1.81%), and Celgene (CELG, -2.15%) are all down following earnings, while Biogen (BIIB, 3.46%) is the best-performing industry giant after its earnings this morning.

Gainers on news:
  • Avinger (AVGR +32.39%) announces positive two-year clinical data from the pivotal VISION study of the company's Lumivascular technology
  • MGC Diagnostics (MGCD +14.21%) declares a a special cash dividend of $0.70/share and initiates a strategic review of its businesses and assets
Decliners on news:
  • Entellus Medical (ENTL -14.75%) prices 3.53 mln shares of common stock at $17.00 per share
Gainers on earnings:
  • Biogen (BIIB +3.65%) beats by $0.08, misses on revs; guides FY17 EPS in-line, revs below consensus
  • Quest Diagnostics (DGX +2.24%) beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides FY17 EPS in-line, revs above consensus
  • NeuroMetrix (NURO +0.71%) reports Q4 results; rev +36% y/y to $3.7 mln
Decliners on earnings:
  • McKesson (MCK -7.72%) misses by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides FY17 EPS above consensus
  • Varian Medical (VAR -6.19%) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS below consensus
  • Abiomed (ABMD -4.07%) beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides FY17 revs in-line
Upgrades/Downgrades:
  • Capnia (CAPN +9.76%) upgraded to Buy at Maxim Group; tgt $5
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  bebe stores: Lloyd I. Miller, III increases passive stake to 8.0% (prior 5.5%)  (5.24 +0.12)
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  Tesaro shares spiking higher in recent trade; Hearing Sanofi (SNY) for TSRO M&A speculation circulating  (141.37 +1.37)
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New Supply on the Way

Treasury Auction Preview

  • $28 bln 7-year Treasury auction (results at 13:00 ET)
    • Prior auction results:
      • High yield: 2.284%
      • Bid-to-cover: 2.54
      • Indirect bid: 64.0%
      • Direct bid: 19.0%
    • Average results of prior 12 auctions:
      • High yield: 1.668%
      • Bid-to-cover: 2.52
      • Indirect bid: 63.2%
      • Direct bid: 12.9%
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 Hearing Western Digital was upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at FBN Securities  (79.48 -0.54)
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 Rumor Round Up

Rumor Activity was active today.

  • WSJ reported that FelCor Lodging (FCH 8.19 +0.26) is considering a potential sale.
  • WSJ discussed that Moneygram (MGI 13.03 +1.15) is near a deal to be acquired by an Alibaba (BABA 102.72 -1.31) affiliate.
  • WSJ reported that Verizon (VZ 49.43 -0.34) may be evaluating a potential merger with Charter (CHTR 334.62 +24.31). CNBC's David Faber says not much has been going on regarding talks with VZ. He also said that 'no significant talks' are taking place between VZ and CHTR. Reuters said that VZ has not proposed a potential acquisition, while the FT reported that both VZ and CHTR have hired advisors to evaluate a possible merger.
  • Sanofi (SNY 39.74 -0.15) for Tesaro (TSRO 150.44 +10.44) M&A speculation circulated.

While many rumors circulate during the day, and the validity of the source of these rumors can be questionable, the speculation may increase volatility in the near term.

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  Today's biggest point gainers/losersBiggest point gainers: CHTR 334.74(24.43), SHW 307.38(23.96), URI 128.34(14.08), SPB 131.48(8.54), BIIB 281.75(8.51), LBRDK 87.62(7.43), LBRDA 86.1(7.18), TSRO 146.63(6.63), RCL 94.3(6.63), TCBI 84.35(5.25), LLL 155.95(5.1), PKX 58.69(4.51), AVXS 56.69(4.17), NOW 90.41(4.05), DEO 112.35(3.71), GWW 256.66(3.55), LUV 52.73(3.27), MEOH 49.78(2.83), CRR 13.43(2.75), HRI 48.38(2.7), GS 239.85(2.6), TMUS 63.33(2.59), LVNTA 44.56(2.53), FANG 107.62(2.5), WGL 81.1(2.32)

Biggest point losers: WHR 175.43(-14.77), CMPR 86.1(-12.07), FFIV 134.13(-11.63), WRLD 49.2(-11.25), MCK 139.86(-11.24), BLK 380.86(-7.47), ADS 220.39(-6.87), CTXS 89.56(-6.18), CLB 118.47(-5.72), VAR 86.73(-5.69), HAS 81.37(-5.39), NOC 226.11(-4.73), MAT 26.84(-4.72), ETH 29(-4.7), TROW 69.9(-4.28), ABMD 110.55(-4.27), RTN 142.8(-4.07), HP 77.06(-4.05), DISH 58.22(-4.01), LVS 52.92(-3.73), ISRG 696.4(-3.6), AGU 106.5(-3.09), QCOM 53.85(-3.05), REGN 346.07(-2.87), CMCO 25.77(-2.86)
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  Stocks that traded to new 52 week highs/lows this session — New highs (334) outpacing new lows (22)Stocks that traded to 52 week highs: AAPL, ABB, ACV, AEIS, AEL, AGD, AHL, AHT, AIT, AIZ, AJG, ALK, ALL, ALSN, AM, AME, APO, APOL, AVGO, AVHI, AZPN, BA, BAC, BANR, BC, BCX, BDJ, BEL, BGB, BGCP, BIF, BKU, BMO, BNCN, BNS, BRKL, BST, BWP, BX, CAI, CAT, CBA, CBF, CBOE, CBT, CCL, CCMP, CE, CENT, CEQP, CFG, CFO, CFR, CFX, CHTR, CIEN, CLS, CM, CMCSA, CMI, CNA, COMT, CPA, CPF, CRK, CSFL, CSX, CTR, CUK, DAN, DCP, DD, DGRW, DGX, DIAX, DOV, DOW, DSL, DXGE, ECA, ECPG, EFR, EMES, EMN, EMO, EMR, ENVA, EPD, ESNT, ETFC, ETN, EUFN, EVR, EVT, EWBC, EXFO, EXP, EXTR, FBNC, FCB, FCF, FEI, FEM, FEX, FFHL, FHN, FIF, FLOW, FMC, FMO, FMSA, FNX, FOXA, FRC, FSFR, FTA, FV, FVC, GER, GLNG, GLOG, GMZ, GNTX, GOOG, GOOGL, GWB, HAL, HAR, HBAN, HBP, HEES, HEP, HFWA, HMLP, HPP, HRG, HRI, HUN, HYT, IDTI, INF, INFO, INN, IP, IPGP, JFR, JMLP, KB, KLXI, KMF, KMX, KTOS, KYE, LAMR, LBRDA, LBRDK, LBTYA, LBTYK, LCII, LEA, LFUS, LNC, LUK, LUNA, LUV, LVLT, LVNTA, LYB, MAR, MCY, MDP, MEOH, MFC, MFS, MGI, MIE, MKTX, MLM, MMP, MPG, MPLX, MRVL, MSA, MSB, MSFT, MSM, MTB, MTDR, MTOR, MTW, MTZ, MU, MXL, NATI, NCZ, NFJ, NOA, NOW, NS, NSC, NVMI, NWPX, OCIP, OME, ON, ORBK, ORC, ORI, ORN, OSK, OUT, OZRK, PACE, PAM, PATK, PB, PBT, PCI, PER, PFBC, PGR, PH, PJT, PLKI, PNC, PNK, PPT, PRI, PSCT, PSEC, PSTB, PTC, PTR, PTY, PVTB, PWR, PZE, QQQ, QQQX, RAI, RCL, REN, RHP, RJF, RMP, RNWK, ROBO, ROL, ROLL, ROP, RSG, RVT, S, SASR, SBNY, SCCO, SCHW, SCM, SFBS, SGMS, SHOP, SIRI, SJR, SKYY, SLCA, SMM, SMTC, SN, SNA, SNI, SNPS, SNV, SODA, STI, STM, SUM, SWX, SYUT, TCBI, TD, TDIV, TDOC, TER, TEX, TKR, TLI, TLLP, TMHC, TMK, TMUS, TPC, TPVG, TQQQ, TRN, TROX, TRTN, TSC, TSE, TSI, TTC, TTWO, TWNK, TXN, TY, TYG, UBSH, UCP, UNM, UNP, UNVR, URI, USA, USAC, USB, USCR, UTHR, UTL, VAL, VBTX, VMW, VOYA, VSH, VYMI, WASH, WCC, WDC, WES, WIX, WLK, WLKP, WNC, WPZ, XCRA, YHOO

Stocks that traded to 52 week lows: BMY, CERS, DRYS, EYES, FCEL, GBSN, GEVO, HGG, ICLD, ITEK, MFIN, NK, PGLC, PSGLQ, RGSE, SQQQ, SSI, STKS, TRIL, TUES, VMEMQ, XON
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  Thinly-Traded Stocks/ETFs that to traded to 52 week highs/lows this sessionThinly-Traded Stocks (ADV below 45k) that traded to 52 week highs on High Volume: AMNB, ASBB, BANX, BCH, CEL, CELP, CFA, CFBK, CLBH, CPIX, CVCY, CWAY, DHG, DNBF, DNI, ECT, ESXB, FAD, FBNK, FBZ, FCAN, FCNCA, FDT, FHY, FJP, FLN, FMK, FNY, FONE, FSBK, FSZ, FTAG, GGE, GGM, GRID, GRP.UT, GSIT, HWCC, IBUY, IPKW, ITEQ, JSMD, KFS, KYO, LGI, LVHD, MGCD, MILN, MMAC, MTR, MVO, NEFF, NVR, NWFL, ONEQ, PACEU, PBNC, PMD, PNQI, PNTR, QCLN, QQXT, RFAP, RFEU, RGT, RMR, SPLP, SRV, SZC, TLP, TPZ, TRCB, TUSA, USAP, USLB, VONE, VONG, VTHR

Thinly-Traded Stocks (ADV below 45k) that traded to 52 week lows on High Volume: EDUC, EVGN, NHA

ETFs that traded to 52 week highs: AMJ, DIA, EEB, EWJ, FDN, IAI, IGV, ITB, IWF, IYF, IYJ, IYM, JNK, KIE, KRE, MDY, OEF, QQQ, REMX, SKYY, SMH, SPY, UYG, UYM, VTI, XLB, XLI, XLK, XLY

ETFs that traded to 52 week lows: SMN
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  Today's biggest % gainers/losersThe following are today's top 20 percentage gainers and top 20 percentage losers, categorized by sectors (over $300 mln market cap and 100K average daily volume).

Today's top 20 % gainers
  • Healthcare: AVXS (56.87 +8.28%), QSII (14.77 +7.19%), TSRO (149.25 +6.61%)
  • Materials: SHW (306.94 +8.3%), PKX (58.67 +8.29%)
  • Industrials: URI (128.33 +12.31%), LUV (52.62 +6.39%), EGLE (7.16 +6.18%), HRI (48.5 +6.17%)
  • Consumer Discretionary: LBRDK (87.49 +9.1%), LBRDA (85.92 +8.87%), CHTR (333.75 +7.55%), RCL (94 +7.21%)
  • Information Technology: MGI (13.02 +9.6%), EBAY (32.12 +6.25%), STM (12.93 +6.16%)
  • Financials: TCBI (84.6 +6.95%)
  • Energy: EMES (18.38 +7.36%), SM (34.34 +6.51%)
  • Consumer Staples: SPB (132.71 +7.95%)
Today's top 20 % losers
  • Healthcare: MCK (139.73 -7.52%), NK (5.31 -6.35%), VAR (86.84 -6.04%)
  • Materials: AGI (7.51 -10.44%), SXC (9.64 -9.4%), NAK (2.84 -8.69%), SXCP (17.75 -6.08%)
  • Industrials: CMCO (25.83 -9.78%)
  • Consumer Discretionary: MAT (26.83 -15%), ETH (28.8 -14.54%), WHR (176.57 -7.17%), LVS (52.68 -7.01%), DISH (57.94 -6.9%), SHLD (8.23 -6.21%), HAS (81.42 -6.15%)
  • Information Technology: CMPR (86.21 -12.18%), FFIV (134.09 -8%), CTXS (89.61 -6.41%)
  • Financials: GNW (3.29 -7.98%)
  • Energy: PEIX (7.03 -6.33%)
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  Today's most active stocksThe following are today's most active stocks ranked by volume and relative volume, categorized by sectors (over $300 mln market cap and 100K average daily volume).

Today's top 20 volume
  • Healthcare: BMY (13.71 mln -2.56%)
  • Materials: AKS (19.28 mln -2.85%), FCX (16.74 mln -2.79%), ABX (11.48 mln -1.44%), X (10.56 mln +3.27%)
  • Industrials: JBLU (10.51 mln -2.2%)
  • Consumer Discretionary: F (27.4 mln -2.85%), MAT (16.81 mln -15%), CMCSA (14.16 mln +2.33%)
  • Information Technology: AMD (18.86 mln +1.78%), QCOM (18.44 mln -5.41%), EBAY (17.71 mln +6.25%), INTC (11.86 mln -0.93%), MSFT (10.66 mln +0.35%)
  • Financials: BAC (38.78 mln +0.17%), WFC (10.21 mln +0.67%)
  • Energy: CHK (14.76 mln +0.7%)
  • Consumer Staples: RAD (17.18 mln +2.97%)
  • Telecommunication Services: VZ (20.37 mln -0.87%), T (12 mln +0.28%)
Today's top relative volume (current volume to 1-month average daily volume)
  • Healthcare: VAR (2.59x -6.04%),
  • Industrials: KRNT (13.55x -2.59%), URI (2.66x +12.31%), CMCO (2.44x -9.78%)
  • Consumer Discretionary: CHTR (6.13x +7.55%), DISH (5.34x -6.9%), MAT (3.99x -15%), LBRDA (3.43x +8.87%), ETH (3.13x -14.54%), LBRDK (3x +9.1%), TRNC (2.85x -1.11%), WHR (2.49x -7.17%)
  • Information Technology: MGI (37.48x +9.6%), CMPR (4.61x -12.18%), STM (2.94x +6.16%)
  • Financials: TROW (2.72x -5.81%)
  • Consumer Staples: USFD (10.25x +1.49%)
  • Telecommunication Services: CHU (3.14x +4.45%)
  • Utilities: WGL (4.57x +2.93%)
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 Banc of California shares tick lower on additional cautious mention by Aurelius  (15.00 +0.05)
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 European Markets Closing PricesEuropean markets are now closed; stock markets across Europe performed as follows:
  • UK's FTSE: 0.0%
  • Germany's DAX: + 0.4%
  • France's CAC: -0.2%
  • Spain's IBEX: -0.5%
  • Portugal's PSI: + 0.2%
  • Italy's MIB Index: -0.7%
  • Irish Ovrl Index: -0.7%
  • Greece ASE General Index: + 0.2%
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  Market Internals

The broader market is split at the moment, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average the sole gainer, adding 40 points (+0.20%) to 20107, the S&P 500 is down less than a point (-0.03%) to 2297, and the Nasdaq Composite also sheds less than a point (-0.01%) to 5655. Action has come on mixed average volume (NYSE 330 vs. avg. of 337; NASDAQ 817 mln vs. avg. of 793), with decliners outpacing advancers (NYSE 1344/1628, NASDAQ 1060/1691) and new highs outpacing new lows (NYSE 238/5, NASDAQ 187/14).

Relative Strength:

US Nat Gas-UNG +3.7%, US Oil-USO +2.2%, US Gasoline-UGA +1.4%, Short-Term Futures-VXX +1.3%, Sugar-SGG +1.2%, US Diesel/Heating Oil-UHN +1.0%, Rare Earth Metals-REMX +1.0%, Egypt-EGPT +0.7%, Emrg. Mkts. M. East&Africa-GAF +0.7%, Japan-EWJ +0.4%, China Lg.-Cap-FXI +0.3%, Chinese Yuan-CYB +0.3%, Sweden-EWD +0.3%, Hong Kong-EWH +0.3%.

Relative Weakness:

Silver Miners-SIL -4.0%, Mexico-EWW -2.6%, Cocoa-NIB -2.6%, Gold Miners-GDX -2.5%, Jr. Gold Miners-GDXJ -2.4%, Copper Miners-COPX -2.3%, Copper-JJC -1.7%, Coffee-JO -1.7%, Italy-EWI -1.6%, Peru-EPU -1.4%, Philippines-EPHE -1.3%, Japanese Yen-FXY -1.2%, Latin Am. 40-ILF -1.2%, Spain-EWP -1.1%.

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 Sector Summary: Industrials trade in-line with the broader market; Caterpillar (CAT) -1% on Q4 revenue miss

The Industrials sector (XLI) is trading -0.2% today, higher than the broader market (SPY -0.2%). In the Industrial sector big names like Caterpillar (CAT -1%) and Raytheon (RTN -3.6%) shares fall after earnings misses and General Dynamics receives a $116 mln US Air Force contract modification.  

Earnings/Guidance

  • Caterpillar (CAT -1%) reports Q4 earnings of $0.83 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.16 better than the consensus of $0.67; revenues fell 13.2% year/year to $9.57 bln vs the $9.81 bln onsensus.
    • Its expectation for sales and revenues in 2017 are now slightly lower due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar over the past two months… as a result, our current outlook for sales and revenues in 2017 is a range of $36-39 billion with a midpoint of $37.5 billion vs. $38.3 bln consensus.
    • Now sees EPS of $2.90, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $3.07 consensus. 
  • Raytheon (RTN -3.6%) reports Q4 earnings of $1.62 per share, excluding favorable FAS/CAS adjustment of $0.26 & an unfavorable tax-related EPS impact of $0.04, $0.24 worse than the consensus of $1.86; revenues fell 1.4% year/year to $6.24 bln vs the $6.57 bln consensus.
    • Issues guidance for FY17, sees EPS of $7.20-7.35, may not be comparable to $7.50 consensus; sees FY17 revs of $24.8-25.3 bln vs. $25.53 bln consensus.
  • Northrop Grumman (NOC -2.5%) reports Q4 earnings of $2.96 per share, $0.47 better than the consensus of $2.49; revenues rose 12.3% year/year to $6.4 bln vs the $5.93 bln consensus.
    • Co issues guidance for FY17, sees EPS of $11.30-11.60 vs. $12.14 consensus; sees FY17 revs of ~$25 bln vs. $25.01 bln consensus, sees FDF of $1.8-2 bln.
  • Southwest (LUV +6.8%) reports Q4 earnings of $0.75 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the consensus of $0.69; revenues rose 2.0% year/year to $5.08 bln vs the $5.03 bln consensus.
    • Based on revenue and booking trends thus far in January, the Company expects its first quarter 2017 RASM to be flat to down one percent, as compared with first quarter 2016.

Additional Industrials reporting earnings/guidance: BHI -0.7% DOV -1.9% LLL +2.6% URI +12.4% JBLU -3.6% OSK -0.9% HXL -0.5% WCC -1.3% DLX -2.3% KNX -4.5% AIT -0.3% EURN -3.1% BGG -2.9% RGS -1.5% CMCO -5.6% CVTI +3.1% LYTS +7.7%

News

  • JetBlue Airways (JBLU -3.6%) sees January RASM down 8-9%
  • General Dynamics' (GD +0.3%) Gulfstream Aerospace unit awarded $116 mln US Air Force contract modification. 

Broker Research

Upgrades

  • Meritor (MTOR +1.2%) upgraded to Buy, Wabash Natl (WNC) upgraded to Hold at Stifel
  • Grainger (GWW +0.8%) upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank
  • MSC Industrial (MSM +0.2%) upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank
  • United Rentals (URI +12.3%) upgraded to Mkt Outperform from Mkt Perform at Avondale
  • Stifel upgrades Wabash National (WNC +1.5%) to Hold from Sell and raises their tgt to $17 from $11.
  • TAL Education (TAL -0.5%)  upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies

Downgrades

  • Navios Maritime Midstream (NAP +0.7%) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup.
  • United Tech (UTX -1%) downgraded to Hold ratings from Buy at Argus.
  • Caterpillar (CAT -1%) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Standpoint Research; tgt $84.

Other

  • Microvision (MVIS +13.5%) initiated with a Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; tgt $4.50.
  • Conduent (CNDT +3.6%) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup.
  • Cowen raises their Norfolk Southern (NSC -0.9%) tgt to $130 from $116.
  • Cowen raises their Knight Transportation (KNX -4.6%) tgt to $29 from $25.
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  Bonanza Creek Energy shares resume trading  (2.91 +0.05)
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 Midday Market Summary: Stock Market Flat at Midday

The stock market has been hit with news on all fronts--corporate, economic, and political--but it has snubbed it all as the major averages have clung to their flat lines through the first half of today's session.

On the corporate front, the earnings season is alive and well with a cluster of large-cap names reporting between yesterday's close and this morning's open. The results were technically mixed, but leaned towards negative as investors reacted cautiously to reports from Celgene (CELG 112.80, -1.18), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY 47.31, -2.25), Qualcomm (QCOM 53.68, -3.21), Ford Motor (F 12.35, -0.43), and Raytheon (RTN 141.65, -5.22). Only one Dow component reported this morning, Caterpillar (CAT 98.31, +0.16), showing mixed results. The company is down 1.0% as disappointing revenue overshadowed better than expected earnings per share. 

However, the reactions weren't all bad, and a handful of companies are up after reporting quarterly earnings, including Comcast (CMCSA 75.08, +1.62), Dow Chemical (DOW 61.00, +0.81), Biogen (BIIB 280.30, +7.06), and eBay (EBAY 31.63, +1.41). The four names all show gains between 1.5% and 5.3%. 

On the political front, Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto officially canceled his upcoming meeting with President Trump after the U.S. President tweeted «if Mexico is unwilling to pay for the badly needed wall, then it would be better to cancel the upcoming meeting», this morning. Only time will tell if Mr. Trump's relations with foreign leaders will be as friendly to the stock market as his domestically focused, pro-growth agenda has been.

Sector standings have lacked leadership thus far, with all spaces posting gains/losses between -0.4% and +0.4%. At the top of the leaderboard is consumer discretionary (+0.4%), riding on Comcast's upbeat earnings report, while telecom services (-0.4%) sit at the bottom despite AT&T (T 41.54, +0.13) reporting in-line earnings this morning.  

Treasuries have returned to their flat lines after spending the morning session in negative territory. The 10-yr yield is near its overnight low, up one basis point at 2.53%.

Today's economic data included Initial Claims, International Trade in Goods, New Home Sales, and Leading Indicators:

  • The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 259,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 246,000. Today's tally was above the revised prior week count of 237,000 (from 234,000). As for continuing claims, they rose to 2.100 million from the revised count of 2.059 million (from 2.046 million).
    • The headline for initial claims was a bit disappointing, yet the key takeaway is that there wasn't really any major deviation from the underlying trend considering how low the initial claims reading has been in recent weeks.
  • December International Trade in Goods decreased by $65.00 billion on the back of a unrevised $65.30 billion decline in November.
  • New Home Sales in December hit an annualized rate of 536,000, which was below the revised November rate of 598,000 (from 592k), and less than the 589,000 that was expected by the Briefing.com consensus.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that the combination of higher prices and higher mortgage rates appears to have squeezed the home-buying capability of lower-income consumers, evidenced by the drop in sales of new homes priced under $299,999.
  • The Conference Board's Leading Indicators report for December ticked up 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%) after a 0.1% increase (from 0.0%) in November.
    • The key takeaway from the December report is that the component indexes suggest the economic expansion should continue and possibly increase in the near term.
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 Sector Summary: S&P Consumer Discretionary Index +0.3%, outperforming the broader marketThe consumer discretionary group is outperforming the broader market. The retail group is in the red with the Retail HOLDRS Trust (RTH) -0.4% and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) -0.2%.

Notable earnings/guidance

  • Trading higher following earnings/guidanceRCL +8.4%, SHW +8.1%, SPB +7.3%, EBAY +5.1%, PHM +4.9%, CMCSA +2.5%, CCI +1.3%, HAR +0.2%, LVMUY +0.2%  (LVMH reports FY16 revs +5% y/y to EUR 37.6 bln, net profit +11% y/y to EUR 3.98 bln)
  • Trading lower following earnings/guidance: HGG -16.4%, MAT -16% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at MKM Partners), ETH -13.8% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Dougherty), WHR -8.4% (also promotes George Revington to the newly created COO role), LVS -7.5%, -3.2%, CAT -1%, LEA -1%

Earnings/guidance secondary plays

  • Most homebuilder names are higher following PulteGroup (PHM +5%) earnings: BZH +2.6%, KBH +1.4%, CAA +1.3%, MHO +1%, TMHC +0.9%, TPH +0.9%, MTH +0.8%, HOV +0.4%, ITB +0.5%, LGIH +0.4%
  • Cruise lines are getting boost from RCL earnings. CCL +1.9%, CUK +2.1%, NCLH +2.5%
  • Casino/gaming names are lower on the heels of disappointing Las Vegas Sands (LVS -7.5%) earnings report (BJK -0.8%): IGT -4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), MPEL -2.4%, CNTY -1.8%, PENN -1.7%, WBAI -1.4%, ISLE -1.4%, MGM -0.9%, BYD -0.9%, UWN -0.8%, WYNN -0.6%, PNK -0.5%
  • Hasbro (HAS -7%) under pressure following Mattel earnings; was also downgraded to Neutral at Monness Crespi & Hardt.
  • Furniture/home goods retail names are lower following Ethan Allen (ETH -14%) earnings/guidance: PIR -4.1%, RH -4%, KIRK -3.5%, WSM -1.5%, TCS -1%
  • Conn's (CONN -3.2%) is lower in sympathy with HHGregg (HGG -16%)
In the news
  • Leaders: BEBE +2.7% (Lloyd I. Miller increases passive stake), KHC +0.9% (Kraft Heinz and Oprah Winfrey announce joint venture called Mealtime Stories). AMZN +0.7% (continued strength ahead of next week's earnings), MTOR 1.3% (upgraded at Stifel), MDP +0.9% (continued strength following earnings and despite downgrade to Hold from Buy at The Benchmark Company)
  • LaggardsSPLS -1.2% (sale of European business to Cerberus approved by the EU),  STZ -1.2% (promotes Bill Newlands to newly created position of EVP/COO), FOSL -5.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill)
  • M&A related: CHTR +6.2% (reports that Verizon may be evaluating a potential merger with Charter), WBA -0.6% RAD 0.1% (Walgreens CEO said at annual meeting that company continues to pursue FTC approval of RiteAid M&A deal)

Looking ahead:

  • On the earnings front: SBUX, WYNN report Thursday after the close
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  Earnings Calendar for Thursday, January 26th
  • Today after the close look for the following companies to report:
    • MSFT, GOOG, INTC, FLEX, SBUX, PYPL, EMN, VMW, CLS, AJG, JNPR, RHI, WYNN, ASH, SWFT, BCR, KLAC, UIS, SMCI, MXIM, ETFC, VVV, SYNA, MSCC, HTH, SIVB, MATW, NATI, FII, MBFI, OSIS, LRN, WAL, ISBC, MRTN, AZPN, CMRE, PFPT, GHL, SHOR, ABAX, WSFS, DGII, NBHC, COBZ, GSIT
  • Tomorrow before the open look for the following companies to report:
    • CVX, HON, AAL, GD, ABBV, UBS, NEE, CL, APD, BEN, POL, HRC, MOG.A, GNTX, TCB, EVER, PFS, GLOP, PROV
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  Auction Out

Treasury Auction Results

  • $28 bln 7-year Treasury auction
    • Auction results:
      • High yield: 2.335% (0.3-basis point stop-through)
      • Bid-to-cover: 2.45
      • Indirect bid: 72.8%
      • Direct bid: 6.6%
    • Average results of prior 12 auctions:
      • High yield: 1.668%
      • Bid-to-cover: 2.52
      • Indirect bid: 63.2%
      • Direct bid: 12.9%
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  Internet Gold files 925K ordinary share shelf offering by selling secuityholders  (10.36 -0.17)
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  President Trump reiterates canceled meeting with Mexico and will not meet unless it agrees to pay for border wall  (44.53 -0.89)
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  SPY down 0.2%; Healthcare is the worst performing sector and Telecom is the best performing sector
Sector Ticker % Change YTD % Change
Healthcare XLV -0.4% 1%
Technology XLK -0.3% 5%
Utilities XLU -0.2% -1%
Cons. Staples XLP -0.2% 2%
Industrials XLI -0.1% 3%
Materials XLB 0.0% 6%
Financials XLF 0.0% 2%
Energy XLE 0.1% 0%
Real Estate XLRE 0.2% 1%
Cons. Disc. XLY 0.4% 5%
Telecom IYZ 0.6% 2%
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  President Trump reiterates favorable stance on coal industry  (13.35 -0.11)Not surprising given he is in Pennsylvania and Appalachian Mountain country.
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 Metals Closing Prices: Gold futures close near this morning's 2-week low on continued dollar index strength
  • Feb gold ended today's session down $8.10 (-0.7%) to $1,189.90/oz
  • Mar silver closed today's session $0.13 lower (-0.8%) at $16.85/oz
  • Mar copper closed $0.04 lower (-1.5%) at $2.67/lb

— The dollar index was +0.4% around the 100.46 level.

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 Unusual Options Activity

The following options are exhibiting notable trading, potentially indicating changing sentiment toward the underlying stocks, and/or potentially representing positioning for increased volatility.

Bullish Call Activity:

  • AMBA Weekly Jan27 52.5 calls (volume: 1870, open int: 150, implied vol: ~50%, prev day implied vol: 45%) — co is expected to report earnings early March.
  • GDDY Feb 35 calls (volume: 1360, open int: 1250, implied vol: ~51%, prev day implied vol: 46%) — co is confirmed to report earnings February 15 after the close.
  • ABT Feb 42 calls (volume: 2600, open int: 2980, implied vol: ~16%, prev day implied vol: 15%)   — 2500 contracts traded in a single transaction. Target lowered to $46 from $48 at RBC Capital Mkts following earnings yesterday morning. Co is expected to report its next quarterly earnings report late April. Alere confirmed its pending acquisition by Abbott Laboratories has been cleared by the European Commission.

Bearish Put Activity:

  • GLNG Feb 25 puts (volume: 16.2K, open int: 3610, implied vol: ~54%, prev day implied vol: 47%)  — over 7400 contracts traded in a single transaction. We noted activity in the same strike earlier this week. Co is expected to report earnings late February (likely outside of expiration).
  • HIG Feb 46 puts (volume: 2480, open int: 7210, implied vol: ~32%, prev day implied vol: 29%) — M&A speculation circulated last week. Co is confirmed to report earnings February 2 after the close.

Sentiment: The CBOE Put/Call ratio is currently: 0.78… VIX: (10.99, +0.18, +1.7%).
February 17 is options expiration — the last day to trade February equity options.
*Please use the Talk to Us link at the top of the page to provide feedback on this comment as well as the OPTNX comments.

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 Hearing Royal Caribbean target was raised to $102 from $78 at JP Morgan following Q4 print; Neutral  (95.43 +7.76)
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 Hearing Moneygram was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair after being acquired by Alibaba's (BABA) Ant Financial  (12.94 +1.06)
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 Alphabet A Earnings Preview

Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) is set to report Q4 results tonight after the close with a conference call to follow at 4:30pm ET. GOOGL (we will use the voting right Class A shares here) usually reports results right after the bell. Capital IQ consensus stands at EPS of $9.62 on Revenues of $25.14 bln. GOOGL does not guide and releases results on its web site. 

Shares of GOOGL are trading near all time highs as we approach the Q4 results. The stock kicked off the start of the week by breaking above the previous high of $838 which was set two days ahead of its Q3 earnings report. The stock got as high as $861 in early trade before seeing some profit taking ahead of the report. Recall the stock saw a similar reaction ahead of its Q3 news. Shares did see a nice jump in immediate reaction, rallying from $814 to $839. But it would fail to hold gains and would eventually slide to the $743 area in the weeks to follow. But GOOGL held its 200-sma and has ran over 100 points over the past two months.

GOOGL has been at the forefront of the growth in digital advertising (along with FB). With digital advertising expected to supplant TV as the top advertising destination market participants will have high expectations for the company despite a difficult set of comparables for 2017. GOOGL has seen its growth pick up as it is finally benefiting from its YouTube acquisition. It still benefits from its Android-driven ad business in mobile which is flourishing. Investors would like to see Alphabet continue to dominate in these areas. But a stream of revenue from other areas, particularly cloud, could help bolster expectations of growth continuing.

Key Metrics/Topics

  • Revenue Growth- The $25 bln reflects revenue growth of 17%. Impressive for a company the size of GOOGL but would be cause for concern given the 20%+witnessed in 2017.
  • Aggregate Paid Clicks- Expected to increase 25% y/y. This metric increased 33% (vs 26% estimate) in Q3.
  • Aggregate cost per click- Expected to decline 10.7% y/y which is one of the small headwinds from the uptick in YouTube monetization and mobile. Q3 saw a decline of 11% compared to expectations of a decline of 5% due to the increased mobile usage.
  • Other Bets Revenue- Best measurement for alternative businesses. Q3 revenue was $197 mln and lost $865 mln compared to revenue of $141 mln and a loss of $980 mln in the prior year.
  • Cost of Revenues- Q3 was 39%. GOOGL said on its call that it expected to see an increase in marketing spend ing Q4 which could threaten the bottom line results. 
  • Cloud Business- GOOGL has been trailing AMZN by a mile here and MSFT by a healthy margin but has been pressing further into the area. GOOGL announced it would expand its partnership with INTC during the quarter.
  • Fiber Unit, Satellite and Self Driving Business- There has been talk the co could sell its fiber and satellite business and spin off its self driving car unit. All speculation at this point but wanted to point it out. The co announced a pause to tis fiber business last quarter
  • Tax Issues- A few fronts here but the big one for analysts will be comments around a potential repatriation. GOOGL's effective tax rate in Q3 was 16% so it is not viewed as one that will benefit from a corporate tax cut.
  • New Platform- At the end of the month GOOGL will launch its redesigned paid search text ads. This will not have an impact on today's results but analysts will be looking for color on the implementation and expectations. 

Q3 Recap

  • GOOGL reported Q3 (Sep) earnings of $9.06 per share, $0.46 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $8.60. Revenues rose 20.2% year/year to $22.45 bln vs the $22.04 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
    • Non-GAAP Operating Margin 34% compared to 33% prior year
    • Other Bets revenue $197 mln compared to $141 mln in prior year
      • Other Bets operating loss ($865) mln compared ot ($980)mln in prior year
    • Cost of revenues as % — 39% compared to 38% in prior year
    • Google Website Revenue Growth 23%
    • Google Network Members Websites 1%
    • Google Other Revenues 39%
    • Google segment Revenues 20%
    • TAC as a % of revenue- 21% compared to 21% in the prior year
  • Aggregate Paid Clicks-
    • Q3 +33%, expected to increase approx 26% y/y; Q2 +29%;-Q1 +29%;Q4 +31%; Q3 +23%.
    • Paid Clicks on Google websites- Q3 +42%; Q2 +37%;Q1 +38%; Q4 +40%; Q3 +35%.
    • Paid clicks on member sites- Q3 +1%; Q2 0%; Q1 +2%; Q4 +2%; Q3 -5%.
  • Aggregate cost per click-
    • Q3 -11%, expected to decline approx 5% y/y; Q2 -7%; Q1 -9%; Q4 -13%; Q3 -11%
    • CPC on Google sites- Q3 -13%; Q2 -9%; Q1 -12%; Q4 -16%; Q3 -16%.
    • CPC on member sites- Q3 -14%; Q1 -8%; -8%; Q4 -8%; Q3 -4%.
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