интересная статья из блумберга - Central Banks Load Up on Equities as Low Rates Kill Bond Yields

Central Banks Load Up on Equities as Low Rates Kill Bond Yields
2013-04-24 23:00:01.0 GMT


By Sarah Jones
     April 25 (Bloomberg) — Central banks, guardians of the
world’s $11 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, are buying
stocks in record amounts as falling bond yields push even risk-
averse investors toward equities.
     In a survey of 60 central bankers this month by Central
Banking Publications and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, 23
percent said they own shares or plan to buy them. The Bank of
Japan, holder of the second-biggest reserves, said April 4 it
will more than double investments in equity exchange-traded
funds to 3.5 trillion yen ($35.2 billion) by 2014. The Bank of
Israel bought stocks for the first time last year while the
Swiss National Bank and the Czech National Bank have boosted

their holdings to at least 10 percent of reserves.
     “In the last year or so, I have spoken with 103 central
banks on diversification,” Gary Smith, London-based global head
of official institutions at BNP Paribas Investment Partners,
which oversees about $649 billion, said in a phone interview.
“If reserves are growing, so are diversification pressures.
Equities are not for every bank tomorrow, but more are
continuing down this path.”
     Managers of banks’ assets are looking for alternatives to
holding government bonds after efforts to stimulate growth from
the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England
helped send yields near to record lows. Central banks’ foreign-
exchange holdings have increased by about $8.5 trillion globally
in the past decade, exceeding levels needed for day-to-day
currency administration.

                         Currency Moves

     Central banks typically hold assets such as government debt
that can be sold easily if funds are needed to counter a move in
their currency. The reliance on fixed-income securities at a
time when bond yields are below inflation in many countries
risks allowing to the value of reserves to decline.
     While consumer prices are rising at a 1.5 percent annual
rate in the U.S. and 1.7 percent in the euro area, the average
yield to maturity of securities in Bank of America Merrill
Lynch’s Global Broad Market Sovereign Plus Index fell to an all-
time low of 1.34 percent on April 23, according to data compiled
by Bloomberg.
     The SNB allocated 82 percent of its 438 billion Swiss
francs ($463 billion) in reserves to government bonds in the
fourth quarter, according to data on its website. Of those
securities, 78 percent had the top, AAA credit grade and 17
percent were rated AA.

                            More Risk

     The survey of 60 central bankers, overseeing a combined
$6.7 trillion, found that low bond returns had prompted almost
half to take on more risk. Fourteen said they had already
invested in equities or would do so within five years. Those
conducting the annual poll had never before asked that question.
     “I definitely see other central banks doing or considering
equities,” said Jan Schmidt, the executive director of risk
management at the Czech National Bank in Prague, which has built
up stocks to 10 percent of its $44.4 billion in reserves since
2008. Even so, the risks of owning stocks are the same as ever,
he said in e-mailed comments.
     Currency reserves among the world’s central banks climbed
by $734 billion in 2012 to a record $10.9 trillion, according to
data from the Washington-based International Monetary Fund.
That’s about 20 percent of the $55 trillion market value of
global stocks, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
     Central banks’ purchases of shares show how the “hunger
for yield” is changing the behavior of even the most
conservative investors, according to Matthew Beesley, head of
equities at Henderson Global Investors Holding Ltd. in London,
which oversees about $100 billion.

                         ‘Logical Move’

     “Equities are the last asset class standing,” Beesley
said in a phone interview on April 18. “When you have dividend
yields in excess of bond yields, it’s a very logical move.”
     Companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index pay 2.2
percent of their combined share price as dividends, compared
with the 1.69 percent yield on 10-year Treasuries, according to
data compiled by Bloomberg.
     The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high of 1,593.37 on April
11 and is up 11 percent this year though April 23. Investors
have earned 0.7 percent owning U.S. government debt repayable in
one year or more, according to Bank of America Corp. bond
indexes.
     Stocks are also cheap compared with government bonds using
a valuation method favored by former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan
that compares earnings with interest payments. Companies in the
S&P 500 generate profit equal to 6.4 percent of their share
prices, about 4.7 percentage points more than yields on 10-year
Treasuries, Bloomberg data show.

                          Beyond Pale

     Even so, 70 percent of the central bankers in the survey
indicated that equities are “beyond the pale.”
     The growth in reserves has slowed as a strengthening dollar
puts less pressure on policy makers to intervene by selling
their currencies, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Central-bank
assets grew by 1 percent last quarter, the smallest gain since
the same period of 2012, as Taiwan’s reserves fell by more than
$1 billion to $402 billion and Singapore’s dropped by a similar
amount to $258 billion.
     Some central banks, including the Fed in Washington and the
Bank of England in London, have no mandate to buy stocks
directly. The Fed has $42.6 billion in reserves and the Bank of
England controls $65.1 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
     Other banks are deterred by price swings in equities that
can be larger than for other securities. The MSCI All-Country
World Index fell 3.3 percent in five days after rising to a 4
1/2-year high on April 11 and tumbled 11 percent in the five
weeks through June 12 last year.

                          SNB, Israel

     Among central banks that are buying shares, the SNB has
allocated about 12 percent of assets to passive funds tracking
equity indexes. The Bank of Israel has spent about 3 percent of
its $77 billion reserves on U.S. stocks.
     In Asia, the BOJ announced plans to put more of its $1.2
trillion of reserves into exchange-traded funds this month as it
doubled its stimulus program to help reflate the economy. The
Bank of Korea began buying Chinese shares last year, increasing
its equity investments to about $18.6 billion, or 5.7 percent of
the total, up from 5.4 percent in 2011. China’s foreign-exchange
regulator said in January it has sought “innovative use” of
its $3.4 trillion in assets, the world’s biggest reserves,
without specifying a strategy for investing in shares.
     “Central banks are looking at assets that I wouldn’t have
necessarily expected in times gone by,” said Paul Price,
London-based head of international distribution and client
relations at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, which
oversees about $338 billion. Low yields and “movement in the
ratings around certain sovereigns is forcing central banks to
rethink how they pursue yield and how equities are viewed in
that context,” he said.

                          Yield Records

     The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury reached a
record low of 1.38 percent in July. The same month, German
government rates of similar maturity declined to 1.13 percent.
France’s 10-year yield retreated to 1.7 percent on April 23, the
lowest level since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 1990.
     “Government bonds remain a fundamental pillar of central-
bank asset allocation, but there is scope to go into other asset
classes to help provide a higher return,” said Massimiliano
Castelli, head of strategy at UBS Asset Management’s global
sovereign markets unit in London. “We are in a lot of
discussions with several or so institutions who are considering
such a step.”