Nice collection of the best empirical wisdom concerning hopes and wishful thinking, headtip to http://mercenarytrader.com/ Worths to read from time to time to keep the right attitude.

«The speculator's chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear… The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts. He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit.»
— Reminiscences of a Stock Operator 
«Hope is not a strategy.»
— Rigo Durazo
«There is no worse course in leadership than to hold out false hopes soon to be swept away.»
— Winston Churchill
«It is not enough to rely on luck or hope to carry us past the weak parts of our game. These parts must be attended to. The system must be whole and complete.»
— Zen and the Art of Poker
«The belief in miracles that all men cherish is born of immoderate indulgence in hope. There are people who go on hope sprees periodically and we all know the chronic hope drunkard that is held up before us as an exemplary optimist.»
  — Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
«Whenever a trader says 'I wish,' or 'I hope,' he is engaging in a destructive way of thinking because it takes attention away from the diagnostic process.»
— Bruce Kovner
«Dramatic and emotional trading experiences tend to be negative. Pride is a great banana peel, as are hope, fear, and greed. My biggest slip-ups occurred shortly after I got emotionally involved with positions.»


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Dax Sept 13 has bounced y/day off the 78,6% retracement of the precceding rally. My system exited short. I remain bearish, and expect the bounce to run out of steam soon. But, objectively, untill the April low of 7422 stays intact, we can not exclude the possibility that the current sell-off is just another deep correction. Price action will clearify, as always.

 

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Three month ago, (see my post on 20th March) I wrote on pattern-perspectives of the copper prices, and assumed the probable target below 3.00. Yesterday market reached the stipulated target. I think much more downside  is possible in coming weeks/month.

Copper producers reflect the inherent weakness of the commodity, and there is a breakout of a massive topping pattern confirmed yesterday  in FreeportMcMoran shares. 


 

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There is not much to update — Dax is going steadily down, in line with my bearish call. 
 

«Declining C waves are devastating in their destruction. There is virtually no place to hide except cash. Illusions evaporate, and fear takes over.»
Elliott Wave Principle, 1978

Dax June 13 has been sold off dynamicaly during last two trading sessions, as been anticipated (see my post as of 17th June). Closest target for the downside is  7400/7350 area.

After reaching the intra-day high of 8286.5 (Though has not reached the previousely estimated lower target 8350), Dax June 13 reversed downwards.  Reversal looks for real and the prop indicators turned into «sell» mode. Likely target for the downside is 7400 as been stipulated before.

Dax June 13 continued trading higher today after the Friday's sharp reversal. Despite the choppiness of the preceeding decline, I think that Dax has made a top on 22 May and  further direction for the price is most likely DOWN. Nevertheless, my indicators remain «long» on shorter TFs. I expect market to trade into 8350/8450 area and then reverse down decisively. 

Well, it was damn hard to make money during recent days — market isn't trending — a bad time for any guy with a trend seeking system:) I refuse to make directional call at this stage, and would rely solely on system's signals. Overall, the rally from 2009 lasted more than enough, sentiment readings are toppish to say at least. But the price action remains muted, and the price action is the ultimate judge…

Price action has screwed my bearish expectations (not the first time and not last). My system turned Up right after market had reached day lows and is firmly long across the board now. If today's spike will not be retraced down immediately today/Monday — price structure becomes bullish.