будьте аккуратней - сегодня S@P и FITCH делают ревю по рейтингу суверенному

Key today are S&P and Fitch sovereign rating reviews on Russia. S&P foreign ccy rating is now BB+/negative, local ccy BBB-/negative; Fitch foreign ccy and local ccy ratings are both BBB-/negative. Fitch remains the only rating agency, which still has Russia foreign ccy rating in investment grade. Previous Fitch review was in early July (when oil was $60 vs. $50 atm), when it kept rating unchanged. We think Fitch downgrade today is unlikely as well, but if happens it will be damaging for OFZs, triggering exclusion from Barclays index.

A few negative comments from rating agencies on Russian economy and banking sector:
• S&P cuts Russia economic growth forecasts to -3.6% in 2015, +0.3% in 2016 (from -2.6% and +1.9%), “expects more prolonged weakness in domestic demand due to lower and more volatile oil prices and tighter fiscal and monetary policies through end-2016”;
• Moody’s maintains negative outlook for Russia’s banking system, expects NPLs to rise from 9.5% at the end of 2014 to 14% in the next 12-18 months;
• Moody’s is concerned with rapidly deteriorating fiscal position and depleting Reserve Fund;