Результаты опроса по ставке ЦБ по итогам заседания 13.03. и прогноз реакции ОФЗ

Broker Tradition yday conducted a survey of 61 fx, rates and bond traders from 33 banks re upcoming CBR rate decision. Here are the results:
• Unch – 6;
• -50 bp – 3;
• -100 bp – 18;
• -150 bp – 10;
• -200+ bp – 24;
Today RBC Daily also published economists’ survey, which is more conservative: -0-150 bp range of expected cuts with -100 bp average. We think OFZ market is pricing in aggressive easing, more in line with traders’ expectations. We expect to see a sell-off in OFZs if CBR cuts 100 bp or less, little reaction if it cuts 150 bp and rally in case of 200+ bp cut.