Goldman Sachs: ЕЦБ уронит EURUSD на 1.03

Goldman Sachs завтра (т. е. уже сегодня) ожидают «голубиный сюрприз» от Драги: значительное увеличение европейского QE, которое должно по их мнению привести к падению пары на 2-3 фигуры, отправить евро на паритет к доллару к концу месяца и года, и к 0.95 в следующем году.

Our rationale boils down to the following. If the ECB eases again tomorrow, something that President Draghi essentially pre-­committed to in October, it will mean that the ECB has eased twice in 2015, precluding further easing on a reasonable horizon.

• It is thus important — both for ECB credibility and, more important, for reversing the lowflation dynamic — to make tomorrow's easing a material event, i.e. to surprise the market.
• We continue to think that the hurdle in this regard is relatively low and see a 2­-3 big figure drop in EUR/$ on the day, with parity by year­end and 0.95 (our 12­month forecast) potentially reached as early as end­-March.

The note goes on… but Brooks does address the positioning argument,:

• Certainly, it is true that speculative shorts have built in the CFTC data… but — as we have shown in past research — that sub­set of the market tends to lead, i.e. broader positioning is likely more modest.
• And of course it remains the case that downside skew in EUR/$ is modest compared to the run­up to the Jan. 22 meeting.
• In short, we think risk-­reward to short EUR/$ into tomorrow's meeting remains compelling andwe anticipate a 2­-3 big figure drop on the day

news.forexlive.com/!/eurusd-goldman-sachs-says-its-about-to-fall-300-points-due-to-ecb-20151202
news.forexlive.com/!/more-on-that-goldman-sachs-call-for-a-300-point-fall-in-eurusd-20151203

Довольно редко банкиры выходят с такими смелыми и конкретными прогнозами.

Проверим?