S&P500 фьючерс | SPX

Лучший квартал с 2009 года по S&P500

Прирост индекса в 1 квартале составил 13,1%.
лучший квартал с 2009 и лучший 1 квартал с 1998 года.

График построен при помощи терминала Tradingview.
Индкатор Percent Change.
Параметр периода Look Back = 3 означает, что изменение столбика считается за 3 последних свечи.
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Хорошие объемы на закрытии, месяца — квартала.

Remember quarter-end and month-end is taking place today. Might get a bit erratic as large players position!

(US) Market Trading Hours Summary: Stocks attempt to lift, helped by positive retail earnings
Thu, 28 Mar 2019

Summary:
US indices initially moved up marginally, along with interest rates, but the global growth discussion remains front and center. Reports on the China/US trade talks were somewhat constructive, while Brexit concerns lingered as MPs waffle on whether or not they can ultimately support PM May's plan. Crude prices slipped after President Trump once again called on OPEC to keep prices from rising. The dollar moved up, with particular weakness in pockets of emerging market currencies as they extended declines.

Overnight
-(CN) Trump Administration Official: China tariffs will be key sticking point and will be resolved as part of the deal; no specific time frame set for trade deal, talks could conclude anytime from April to June; US and China have made progress in all areas of trade talks
— European Mar inflation data (German States and Spain) coming in below expectations and moving farther away from ECB target
— Brexit stalemate deepens as UK Parliament failed to agree on a way forward via 8 options
— UK PM May announced to backbench Conservative MPs that she would step down as PM after her Brexit deal was delivered and would not lead the next stage of negotiations
— Turkey’s deepening market turmoil fuels concern about contagion to other developing market

US Session
-(CN) China said to plan allowing foreign tech firms to own cloud operations as a part of trade talks — press
-(US) Q4 FINAL GDP PRICE INDEX: 1.7% V 1.8%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 1.8% V 1.7%E
-(US) Q4 FINAL GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 2.2% V 2.3%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 2.5% V 2.6%E
-(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 211K V 220KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.76M V 1.78ME
-(US) Pres Trump calls on OPEC to increase oil flow; says oil prices getting too high
-(RU) Russia and OPEC might agree to three-month extension of oil supply reductions at June meeting; Energy Min Novak said to tell Saudis he can't promise extension until end of 2019 — press
-(US) Nevada reports Feb casino gaming Rev $1.01B, -0.6% y/y; Las Vegas strip Rev $591.7M, -2.0% y/y
-(US) Fed's Clarida (moderate, voter): Fed can be patient amid global risks and muted inflation; Fed must pay ever closer attention to global growth risks
-(US) FEB PENDING HOME SALES M/M -1.0% V -0.5%E; Y/Y: -5.0% V -3.0%E

Europe
-(EU) EURO ZONE MAR BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR: 0.53 V 0.68E
-(IT) ITALY DEBT AGENCY (TESORO) SELLS TOTAL €6.25B VS. €5.5-6.25B INDICATED RANGE IN 5-YEAR AND 10-YEAR BTP BONDS
-(BE) Belgium Mar CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.2% prior
-(TR) Turkey President Erdogan: Reiterates stance that as interest rates fall so will inflation
-(IE) Ireland Feb Retail Sales Volume M/M: +2.1% v -1.2% prior; Y/Y: +5.1% v -0.5% prior
-(UK) Former UK Foreign Min Johnson: PM May's Brexit deal is dead
-(CZ) CZECH CENTRAL BANK (CNB) LEAVES 2-WEEK REPURCHASE RATE UNCHANGED AT 1.75%; AS EXPECTED
-(DE) GERMANY MAR PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 1.3% V 1.5%E
-(ZA) SOUTH AFRICA CENTRAL BANK (SARB) LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 6.75%; AS EXPECTED

Corporate Headlines:
-LULU valuation stretches further following earnings beat on 6% SSS growth
-PVH rises as guidance impresses
-NLSN slips on report Blackstone exits auction process
-WBC confirms ZF deal below yesterday's closing price
-DB reportedly mulls raising up to €10B in equity for Commerzbank merger deal — FT
-OSR.DE cuts outlook

— Dow Jones -0.1%
— S&P 500 -0.2%
— Nasdaq -0.3%
— Russell 2000 -0.1%

Treasuries:
— US 2-yr: +1bps at 2.222%
— 10-yr: +1bps at 2.388%
— 30-yr: -1bps at 2.816%
— 2-10 spread: flat at 0.17%

Commodities:
— May crude oil $58.80, -1.0%
— Apr Gold $1,292/oz, -1.4%
— May Silver $15.07/oz, -1.5%
— May Copper $2.873/oz, +0.3%

Traders are becoming increasingly concerned as a number of red flags unfurl over the market. Among worrisome signs that may signal danger ahead are the yield curve, Fed talk, trade and Brexit.

RBC Capital Markets equity analysts are less optimistic about fundamentals now than they were in a survey last November, and they see the 2020 elections as a big risk on the horizon, according to a recent survey by the bank

Most of our analysts still see strong fundamentals and attractive valuations, but less so than in our last poll.
In total, 57% say valuations are attractive for their industries. Interestingly, those who see valuations as less attractive since November outnumber those who see them as more attractive.

Сдули рост, спасибо.

US Treasury растут- мощное ралли.

Inverted Yield Curve. Новая страшилка MoneyMasters. 

Gartman, известный фонд менеджер и филантроп, объявил по ТВ, что Bonds ARE place to be. Сейчас когда большинство пенсионных фондов, в TAX Season (20 марта-10 апреля) вкладываются в облигации. Облигации загоняют на хая. Well, its very convenient! 

А может из за BREXIT? А может у кого то денег нет на автобус в Венесуэле до Buccaramanga? (прочел на СЛ)
Но Трежаря растут и Вообще КТО ТО ДОЛЖЕН ТАРИТЬ ТРЕЖАРЯ!! 



Bob Dylan. '-YOU GOTTA SERVE SOMEBODY" & SOME PEOPLE GOTTA BUY ТРЕЖАРЯ...


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(US) Market Close Summary: Stocks fall, pound gains as PM May vows to quit if Brexit deal gets through Parliament

US Session
-(US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Mar 22nd: 8.9% v 1.6% prior
-(CA) CANADA JAN INT'L MERCHANDISE TRADE (CAD): -4.3B V -3.6BE
-(US) JAN TRADE BALANCE: -$51.1B V -$57.0BE; China: -$33.2B v -$38.7B prior
-(US) Q4 CURRENT ACCOUNT: -$134.4B V -$130.0BE
-(MX) Mexico Feb Trade Balance: $1.22B v $0.3Be
-(US) Atlanta Fed raises Q1 GDP forecast to 1.5% v 1.3% prior
-(US) DOE CRUDE: +2.8M V -0.5ME; GASOLINE: -2.9M V -2.5ME; DISTILLATE: -2.1M V -1ME
-(US) White House Economic Adviser Hassett: 10-year is clearly responding to news from Europe — CNBC interview
-*(US) TREASURY'S $41B 5-YEAR NOTE AUCTION DRAWS: 2.172%; BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.35 V 2.40 PRIOR AND 2.44 OVER THE LAST 12 AUCTIONS
-(US) Pres Trump asks agencies to end conservatorship of Fannie and Freddie; will sign Trump reform memo

Europe
-(UK) EU's Barnier: In all Brexit scenarios, the Good Friday agreement will continue to apply
-Swedish Economic Crime Authority initiates a preliminary investigation regarding suspected insider crimes
-(DE) GERMANY SELLS €2.433B VS. €3.0B INDICATED IN 0.25% FEB 2029 BUNDS; AVG YIELD: -0.05% (1st negative rate since 2016) V +0.12% PRIOR; BID-TO-COVER: 2.59X V 2.48X PRIOR
-(DE) ECB's Lautenschlaeger (Germany, SSM member): Fit and proper rules not harmonized at all — panel comments
-(ES) ECB’s de Guindos (Spain): ECB has the tools to shield the economy from spillovers
-(UK) Mar CBI Retailing Reported Sales: -18 v +4e
-(UK) Northern Irish DUP Dep Party official Dodds: To support proposal for the Malthouse compromise plan A in the indicative votes
-(EU) ECB said to be working on models for tiered Deposit Rate — press
-(UK) UK PM May Spokesperson: Will only bring back Brexit vote when we have a realistic prospect of success
-(EU) ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg): ECB will not rush to return to the pre-crisis balance sheet
-(UK) UK Lawmakers approve procedure for 8 indicative votes on Brexit options on Wednesday (vote 331 to 287)
-(UK) Reportedly UK PM May planning motion for potential 'meaningful vote' on Brexit deal on Friday
-(UK) PM May told Tory MPs that she'll hand over leadership once Brexit is delivered; does not offer a specific timetable for stepping down — press
-(UK) Brexiteer MP Rees Moog: if Northern Ireland's DUP abstain in Brexit deal vote, I will back the deal

Corporate Headlines
-KBH and LEN reports housing market picked up as rates fell
-Centene to acquire Wellcare in ~$17B deal
-LUV cuts Q1 outlook due to flight cancellations
-PAYX reports inline results
-At Home falls 20% on poor guidance
-IFX.DE cuts outlook
-Boeing exec: Announces three software changes for 737 MAX; sees 737 MAX upgrade installed within days of software approval; working with regulators on a 737 MAX patch and training

Summary:
US stock indices bounced off the lows of the day but still ended in negative territory amid continued flashing signs indicating growth worries persists. Ahead of the NY opening bell, futures slid along with bond yields after central bank officials on both sides of the Atlantic indicated they would remain attuned to economic headwinds. The Turkish lira continued to slump, and stock prices there fell out of bed after swap rates soared. USD/MXN rose as the Greenback firmed against a host of emerging market currencies. The Transports ended the session strong after LUV cut their Q1 capacity outlook in the midst of growing flight cancellations. Cable strengthened after various MPs said they would now support the PM May's Brexit deal after she said she would step down once the agreement passes.

Markets:
— Dow Jones -0.1%
— S&P500 -0.5%
— Nasdaq -0.6%
— Russell 2000 -0.4%

-After Market Movers-
-LULU Reports Q4 $1.85 v $1.74e, Rev $1.17B v $1.15Be; authorizes $500M stock repurchase program (3% of market cap); +8% afterhours
-VRNT Reports Q4 $1.08 v $1.01e, adj Rev $336.7M v $333Me; +8% afterhours
-PVH Reports Q4 $1.84 v $1.75e, Rev $$2.48B v $2.41Be; authorizes $750M increase and extension to stock buybacks (9% of market cap); +8% afterhours
-SNX Reports Q1 $2.84 v $2.75e, Rev $5.25B v $5.27Be; +3% afterhours
-FUL Reports Q1 $0.34 v $0.34e, Rev $673M v $699Me; -5% afterhours

Амеры протекли вниз на 1%. Что случилось?

Ну как всегда страхи по экономике — главная причина. Артур сегодня писал подробно про падение прибылей китайских компаний максимальное с 2011 года. Ну и плюс все СМИ цитируют инверсию кривой доходности, о которой писалось на прошлой неделе. 
Торговый дефицит США — минимальный за 10 мес. Сократился больше, чем прогнозировали.

Ну то есть падаем сами по себе, причин особых нет никаких.
Падеж в разбивке по секторам на данный момент:




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Правильной дорогой идем

В четверг первый день переговоров по торговле США-Китай

Chinese data on Wednesday showed industrial profits shrank the most since late-2011 in the first two months of the year

Тимофей, что блумберг пишет- на чем амеры повалились?

-0,5% за 20 мин
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End OF The Q1 MARK UP. Rally. S&P500 = + 31

END OF THE Q1 MARK UP. Rally. 

К подобным вещам трудно привыкнуть, каждый раз удивляешься +250 DowJones на 10й минуте торговой сессии.

Все это происходит под победные комментарии республиканских СМИ о завершении Дела Мюллера.  Мда… наивные. 

Главные события на финансовых рынках- происходят в последние дни in US Treasuries + German BUNDS. 
Bond market лидирует и торгуется идеально — технически. 

Вслед за ним Nasdaq 100, SOX, Transports. 

Fibonacci 0.786 Retracement. Это уровень, где должен остановиться Nasdaq100 7440/ Оттуда Downtrend будет продолжен с целью NDX=7256 next 7200. 

S&P500 2842-44 имхо. 

Цели по волатильности НЕ выполнены на прошлой неделе (были близко) Ratio=2.2 цель, как идеальная возможность зайти в ЛОНГ — перед ралли к S&P500=3000. Max Friday =2.10
Впереди много времени Апрель -Май до Июньской экспирации. 


No position. Looking for SHORT. S&P500 / Nasdaq100. Видимо завтра…
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Сдулась сипишка

Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Global Research said the firm is re-calibrating to a less defensive, more consumer-oriented stance.

Subramanian said this change is against a backdrop of positive U.S. policy such as a more dovish Fed, expectations of a trade deal with China and lower impeachment risks following the Mueller investigation conclusion. In addition, the firm sees hints of green shoots in Europe and Asia.

Despite this, investors should position for more volatility, says Subramanian, as the yield curve has «accurately predicted the contours of the VIX over the last three cycles, and its last few years of flattening portends that the VIX could double.»

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DROPS UNEXPECTEDLY IN MARCH

S&P500 ↓

В воскресенье намеревался покинуть Церковь Иисуса Христа Святых последних дней, даже заявление писал, теперь жду снижение индекса. Не всё как-то ладно в США.
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Инверсия кривой доходности облигаций США и S&P500

Синяя линия — разница между дох.10лет Treasuries и 3мес Bills
Зеленая линия — индекс S&P500
Красные линии — время, когда синяя линяя уходит ниже 0 (инверсия кривой)

На прошлой неделе кривая доходности США впервые с 2007 инвертировалась.
Я решил посмотреть что это значит в историческом контексте.
Оказалось, что ничего. Да, явление не частое, но в прошлом за ней (инверсией) чаще даже следовал рост S&P500, а не снижение.

Разработчикам из Tradingview на заметку: я использовал reuters eikon charts. Почему?
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Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller: Greater than average chance of recession in next 18 months
www.cnbc.com/2019/03/19/robert-shiller-greater-than-average-chance-of-recession-in-18-months.html