Tim Timur

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Repot 09/07

-  China equities push higher with Shanghao Comp up 5.26%, having opened down 4%
-  Not quite sure if this move is led by intervention, but I suspect it is
-  Shanghai Comp gad opened 4% lower
-  Nikkei lower though by 0.4% to 19,652
-  Hang Seng rises 4% to 24,498
-  Trading on NYSE was suspended yesterday due to a computer glitch
-  Feds minutes show members are concerned about greece/EU issues
-  Worry about disruption spilling over into global financial markets
-  Minutes also mention worries over China
-  But message is that conditions seem consistent with start of normalization
-  But Feds Williams remains hawkish, still sees two rate rises this year
-  Greece to propose detailed reform plans today
-  Yesterday Greece requested 3 year bailout program
-  Some suggestion the request was softer on debt restructuring
-  But Tsipras remains defiant after EU parliament
-  Greek banks to remain closed until next week
-  EUR holding up well, EURUSD 1.1100, EURJPY 134.90
-  AUD pushes higher on slightly better employment data
-  AUDUSD now 0.7485, AUDJPY up to 91.00

 

— 10.45 Feds Kocherlakota speaks
-  12.00 UK BoE MPC rate announcement
-  13.30 US initial jobless claims
-  13.30 CAD house price index
-  15.15 Feds Brainard speaks
-  18.00 Feds George speaks


Report 08/07/2015

-  Greece given new, perhaps final ultimatum
-  Greece must come up with new detailed proposals by Thursday
-  Seems EU disappointed with greek efforts so far
-  Another emergency summit scheduled for Sunday
-  ECB will maintain liquidity until then
— But ECB likely to suspend ELA if no agreement made on Sunday
-  Would lead to closure of greek banking system and a possibly Greek exit
-  Merkel says she is not optimistic over greece
-  FOMC minutes this evening, look for any mention of greece
-  If Fed are worried about greece, rate hike expectations could be pushed back further
-  IMF warns US economic recovery coud stall if Fed raises rates too early
-   IMF want any rate hikes delayed until 2016
-  Asian equities suffer overnight
-  Nikkei down 2.8% to 19,802
-  Hang Seng down nearly 5%, Shanghai comp down nearly 6%
-  Over 1300 stocks of china stocks now suspended to prevent panic selling
-  China central bank says will provide liquidity to stock market
-   Many see this china equity story as much bigger than greek issues

 

-  08.30 Greece Tsipras addresses parliament
-  09.30 UK Record of 24 june FPC meeting
-  10.00 ECBs Coeure speaks
-  12.30 UK budget statement
-  19.00 US FOMC minutes
-  19.00 Feds Williams speaks
-  00.01 UK RICS house price
-  00.50 Japan machine orders
-  02.30 China CPI, PPI


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