Today, the Sberbank Supervisory Board recommended FY18 dividends at 43.45% DPR, with DPS of RUB 16 for both common and preferred shares. This implies dividend yields of 6.9% and 7.9%, respectively. The record date was set for 13 June. The DPR was set at the mid-point between 2017’s of 38% and next year’s target of 50% (a goal reiterated by the CEO), and was lower than both our expectation (DPS RUB 18) and the consensus estimates (DPS RUB 17.7; Bloomberg as of 16 April 2019). We therefore view the number as a disappointment – especially as Sberbank is set to reach 12.5% CET1 target by the end of this month, on our estimates, even pending the closing of the DenizBank sale (which we expect in 2Q19). We believe that management’s reluctance to return capital limits upside risks for FY19 dividends at RUB 20 (50% DPR), which implies a 15.4% 12mo fwd dividend yield. Notwithstanding the downside risk we note to our dividend forecasts, our unchanged 12-month Target Price of RUB 360/ord implies a 59% ETR, and we therefore reiterate our Buy recommendation.

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