JPMorgan
отчетность сильная, nim показали выше ожиданий, растущий. выручка выше ожиданий, кроме сегмента айби. ну и отмечу провижнс ниже ожиданий, тоже хорошо. но я как уже сказал больше хотел бы сконцентрироваться на звонке.
все описывать не буду — главные темы звонка это трейд ворс, италия, турция, ставки, промежуточные выборы. я остановлюсь только на ставках.
на вопросы по ставке отвечала СФО. ситуация с ростом ставок для банка в целом положительная, за исключением ипотечных займов. часть кредитов привязана к плавающей ставке, часть фиксд. и как правило именно ипотека это фиксированная ставка (читай Signature bank, SBNY), поэтому и основное давление идет на ипотеку. Маржа расширилась, что значит рост ставки больше прибавляет в части кредитов, нежели бьет по депозитам. про кривую доходностей толком ничего не сказали, лишь обмолвились что опять же чем круче — тем лучше. но реально оценить воздействие флеттенинг керв сложно.
дам пару выдержек, кому интересно советую прочитать.
<Q — Glenn Schorr>: Good morning. So at the Investor Day I remember asking you the same question. So I apologize
but you had a slide that talked about Consumer and Corporate balance sheets being in great shape and having a low
debt service burden. The 10 years' up a modest 35 basis points since then and the world's freaking out that it's the end is
that of the cycle and that's going to choke off the recovery. Your results are your results, but they're — some will say
backward looking. Are you seeing any impact, A, at the modest increase in the curve now? And B, I'll ask again, is
there a level of rates where you would start to see an impact of slowdown and what you're willing to lend rising in
credit costs things like that? Thank you.
<A — Marianne Lake>: Yes. So I would say, I would sort of pick up on the tone that you had in your question, which
is the level of rates is not surprisingly high. And so from our vantage point we're not seeing anything in terms of
looking at our client dialogue or for that matter at the credit trends that would suggest that this is problematic.
With higher rates and we do this all the time, we obviously look at all of our portfolios and stress them for shocks of up
a 100 basis points even up 200 although, clearly where we are now risks are more asymmetric but or more symmetric.
But there doesn't seem to be any extraordinary stress that becomes evident even if you, obviously the margin you're
going to get more but it doesn't seem to be overwhelming. And it speaks I think to the fact that low rates have been
around for a long time. People have had a chance to get prepared.
There is a lot of liquidity. And in the corporate space in particular people have been able to hedge. So is there an
absolute level of rates where things will be problematic? At some point but we don't think we're anywhere near there.
So I'm not saying that there couldn't be select downgrades. I'm not saying that at the margin there may not be some
incremental stress if rates continue to go much higher but that's not where we are right now.
<Q — Betsy Graseck>: Okay. Good. Good. So first question, just on the rate question that you got earlier, but I wanted
to understand how you're thinking about the impact on the outlook for your asset yields in particular of the securities
portfolio. I know you've given guidance on that before. But given the sharp backup that we got over the last couple of
weeks, how's that impacting your forward look on that?
<A — Marianne Lake>: Yeah. So I mean – on the asset side of the balance sheet, just a big rule of thumb is that a little
less than half of our loans are variable indexed to Prime and LIBOR. So what we've been seeing – in any one quarter
there can be noise on onetime items or mix or whatever else. But largely speaking, for every rate hike we've been
seeing on the front end. We're seeing our assets re-priced about half of that. And that our loans to be part of that half
and that's what we'd expect. Similarly, if we see sustained increases in the long end of the curve then we would see that
play through into our investment securities yield. Obviously, this quarter, while there was a meaningful increase on a
spot basis, on an average basis that wasn't the case and particularly not for mortgages. So it had a modest impact on
investment security over this quarter. But again, if it was sustained and more advisable, we would see that
pass-through, yes. We would rotate the assets into higher book yields over time.
And so, as we continue — and also, just to talk about monetary policy for a second, everything given that growth
outlook is really sort of lining up for a December rate hike and for more hikes into 2019 and the continuation hopefully
of a steeper yield curve and that all should be constructive for bank stocks.
В общем, отчетность сильная. ставка на данный момент помогает банку, экономика сильная и растет, кредиты выдаются. все сомнения по поводу трейд ворс и пр. имеют ограниченный эффект и если и имеют то минимальный эффект на компанию. Темп для сезона отчетности задал хороший, теперь вопрос как мид-кеп отчитаются. веллс фарго, сити, пнси тоже отчитались — но там менее интересно. ждем комерику (CMA) во вторник после закрытия. там я сильной жду отчетности.
