В Италии возможна смена курса.

кому интересно

What happens if Mr. Berlusconi is voted down or decides to step down?

The President of the Republic will consult all the political forces – a process he has started last week — and verify if an alternative government is possible. If that's the case, the new government must get a vote of confidence in the Parliament. In this first scenario, a new government could be in place in around 10 days from the declared crisis. If no alternative majority is found in parliament, the President of the Republic will have to call for early elections.

We see four possible scenarios:

1) No elections and a new government supported by a “national unity” coalition. A mix of centre-right, center and center-left parties could support a “national unity” government, possibly led by a prominent technocrat with international credibility (ex EU Commissioner Mario Monti is often mentioned in this context), or by a member of the centre-right coalition. The programme, in this case, would be to implement over the next year or so the EU agreed plan and to change the electoral law. Elections would take place in 2013, their natural date. This would probably be the best option from a market perspective. We attach a 30% probability to this scenario.

2) No elections and a new government with a broader center-right coalition. This is an option that the center-right MPs that left the majority over the past few years would likely favor. It would reinforce the government, with a likely new prime minister (albeit someone chosen by Mr Berlusconi himself, with Mr Letta or Mr Alfano being the main candidates). The latter will push for the same package of measures presented so far. A broadening of the coalition, however, could find some resistance from the junior coalition party, the Northern league, who is calling for early elections in the event of Berlusconi stepping down. Overall, it should lower the uncertainty and provide a mild positive for the markets. We attach a 30% probability to this scenario.

3) Early elections. The most market negative option in the short-term, in our view, and a sign of incapacity to reach an agreement at the political level. Uncertainty on the outcome of the elections could last for several months, as elections would be called at the earliest in January but possibly as late as March or April. As the chart below shows, it is unclear if the current opposition will win a clear mandate. The President of the Republic will likely try to avoid an early election in all possible ways, in our view. We attach a 30% probability to this scenario.
4) Prime Minister Berlusconi stays on. The current government manages to win back enough MPs to carry on. The program of the government will be verified/certified by the IMF, importing in theory some credibility for the government's actions, if they are indeed in respect of the commitments taken with the EU. We attach a 10% probability to this scenario.