28 ноября 2013, 21:09

Thanksgiving will reduce the market activity

European stock markets yesterday showed a strong growth. Increase was the highest for the period in almost two weeks. Positive mood was caused by good data on consumer confidence in Germany. Figure came at around 7.4, with expectations of 7.1. This result was the best since 2007. The bulls were supported by the signing the coalition agreement in Germany. This fact has a positive impact on the stability of economic development of the largest economy in Europe and in the EU as a whole. Now Angela Merkel will hold the post of the German Chancellor until 2017.
American trading session also ended with increase of major indexes. The reason of this was a positive market sentiment before the celebration of Thanksgiving Day, and a large block of macro-statistics, which, despite its ambiguities, was positively accepted by the market. Thus, Chicago manufacturing index have fallen in November to 63.0 against 65.9 in October (the highest level since March 2011), experts predicted a decline to 60.6. Number of unemployment claims dropped to 316 thousand with expectations of growth to 331 thousand. Consumer confidence index have risen to 75.1 points in November against the forecast of 73.1 points.

It is worth recalling that the U.S. stock markets will be closed today, and the Friday's trading session will be reduced to 18:00 GMT. In this regard, we do not expect any significant movements on financial markets this week.
EUR/USD declined yesterday, due to the strengthening of the dollar on the background of positive data on the U.S. labor market. Good sign for the bulls is that the price had overcome the strong resistance level 1.3560, and was able to consolidate above it. Further strengthening of the dollar has been restrained by the report on the volume of durable orders. Excluding the transportation component orders had fallen by 0.1%, with growth forecast at 0.5%. We expect the price movement to continue in the local rising channel. The closest goal in case of increase is the level of 1.3660. Support level is at local minimum 1.35. The course of trading today will be affected by the data on index of business activity in the retail sector of the Euro area (09:10 GMT).
The British pound has strengthened against the U.S. dollar. The reason for the growth of quotations was the UK GDP data, which showed an increase of 0.8% in the third quarter. Significant decline in exports by 2.4% was partially offset by the growth in expenditures of households, which was the highest one in three-year period. After exiting from the side channel, today’s movement of the pound will depend on the speech of the governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney and the report on financial stability (10:30 GMT). Support level is at 1.6250.
The Australian dollar has once again bounced off the inclined support line and corrected to the strong resistance level of 0.9120. Decline in new home sales in Australia for 3.8% with the previous figure 6.4%, disappointed investors, but the volume of investments of companies that has risen by 3.6% with expectations of falling by 1.2%, caused a strong upward movement. We maintain our negative outlook, which is based on the continuation of politics by the Reserve Bank of Australia, aimed at weakening of Australian dollar.
Retail sales in Japan increased by 2.3% in October. Consumption is now the main driver of economic growth of the country of the rising sun. Policy of the government, headed by Prime Minister Abe is giving descent results. Unfortunately, the increase in spending thus far is limited with low wage growth.
Yen continues to decline, while Japan's stock market rises. The nearest support levels for the pair USD/JPY are 101.90 and 101.40.
After a long consolidation we saw the collapse of prices for North American standard Light sweet crude oil. Prices collapsed on the background of an unexpected increase in commercial inventories of crude oil and petroleum products by 3.0 million barrels, while analysts’ expectation of increase for 0.5 million. We maintain our long-term negative outlook on prices of oil. Fundamental reasons for the fall of quotations are the uncertainty of supplies from Libya and Iraq, the rise of U.S. reserves, the removal of sanctions on oil sales from Iran and the substitution of oil products with gas in some sectors of the economy.
Gold prices continue to move in the downward channel. Slow-down in the decrease is due to the rise of gold imports in China. Growth in demand in China traditionally increases in anticipation of the New Year, which is celebrated at the end of January. Resistance level is at around 1265. Targets in case of further reduction will be at 1220 and 1200.

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Олег Сергеенко

Кипр

с 15 ноября 2013

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