SPX500

Konstantin, я не знаю, что такое КДТ. Но могу сказать, что это прогноз, за который я плачу деньги.(за 5 месяцов подписки я довольна). Последние комментарии по рынку:The stock market has yet to experience a daily decline of 1% in the S&P 500 Index in 2012. Today we saw a decline of less than -0.5%. The last time we extended this far into the new year without a 1% decline was 1995. The gain over the subsequent 24 months was +66.9%. We believe this statistic has some relevance. As you all know we are overall bullish for the longer term time-frame, which we have suggested many times by now. The extra liquidity that the global markets have been given always tends to find its way into the markets, pushing them higher. Therefore, we will maintain our bullish stance. It is really difficult to get bearish because of the global liquidity increase. So again we remain bullish barring any unforeseen event, which would severely spook the markets. As a result of our more bullish bias, we have positioned our trades and our Investment Portfolio accordingly (see our Trade Performance and Investment Portfolio on the home page).

Price action for the S&P Index continues to climb the wall of worry as the markets have climbed higher. We need to pay attention to certain key Fibonacci levels such as the 1377 level and the 1395 level as pointed out in our most recent SPX chart. Although we maintain our bullish stance, it does seem that some sort of pullback is in order eventually that may take us back to the 1300-1320 area in the near term. Once the downside begins to gain some traction, it will be more swift and violent than this grind higher for the last couple months. The markets always go down much quicker than they go up. With this in mind, we must continue to trade what we see and not what we think. For now (short-term), we are going with the theme of a continued move higher for the markets.

Note that there continues to be a decrease in volatility, which becomes increasingly difficult for traders as we get to higher price levels for the SPX. Volatility will eventually spike once again, and therefore, we need to be mindful of a return to increased volatility soon, which likely means that there is some downside for the market ahead. As traders, we prefer to trade down markets because of the higher volatility. However, during this time we need to continue to be extra selective for our trades and make sure that we align ourselves with the market trend. We are likely not going to try to call a top, because it is very difficult to do and typically very expensive in terms of loss of capital. We must continue to be on the top of our game as always.