Америка сегодня. Рынок труда.

Major European indices are mixed, cooling their jets somewhat following big gains on Wednesday.  A focal point this morning is the eurozone's CPI report for February, which showed consumer prices up 2.0% year-over-year, which is ahead of the ECB's target of below, but close to, 2.0%.  Energy played a large part in driving up headline inflation as core CPI was up a tamer 0.9% year-over-year.  Nevertheless, some consternation over the potential implications for the ECB's monetary policy have helped temper some of Wednesday's trading enthusiasm. The euro, however, has not followed the CPI print higher. It is down 0.4% against the dollar at 1.0513.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone February CPI +2.0% year-over-year (expected +2.0%; last +1.8%); Core CPI +0.9% year-over-year (expected +0.9%; last +0.9%)
  • Eurozone February CPI +3.5% year-over-year (expected +3.2%; last +1.6%); PPI +0.7% month-over-month (expected +0.6%; last +0.8%)
  • Eurozone January Unemployment Rate 9.6% (expected 9.6%; last 9.6%)
  • Spain Q4 GDP unrevised at +0.7% quarter-over-quarter (expected +0.7%) and +3.0% year-over-year (expected +3.0%)
  • Spain Unemployment Change -9.4K (expected +5.2K; last +57.3K)
  • Germany January Import Price Index +0.9% month-over-month (expected +0.4%; last +1.9%) and +6.0% year-over-year (expected +5.5%; last +3.5%)
  • Switzerland Q4 GDP +0.1% quarter-over-quarter (expected +0.5%; last +0.1%) and +0.6% year-over-year (expected +1.3%; last +1.4%)
  • Italy January Unemployment Rate 11.9% (expected 12.0%; last 11.9%)
  • UK February Construction PMI 52.5 (expected 52.2; last 52.2)

---Equity Markets---

• UK's FTSE is down 0.1%, cooling off after Wednesday's 1.6% gain and digesting news reports suggesting Prime Minister May is likely to trigger Article 50 on March 15. Individual stock leaders include the likes of ConvaTec Group (+5.6%), Rio Tinto (+4.3%), and GKN (+4.1%).  On the flip side, the biggest laggards include Capita (-9.4%), Merlin Entertainments (-3.6%), and Schroders (-2.5%).
• Germany's DAX is up 0.1% following a 2.0% gain on Wednesday.  RWE (+2.4%), BASF (+1.6%), and E.ON (+1.3%) lead on the upside while Deutsche Telekom (-1.5%), Fresenius (-0.8%), and Allianz (-0.3%) are setting the pace for downside laggards.
• France's CAC is up 0.2% on the heels of Wednesday's 2.1% gain, and looking undeterred for the most part by the news that authorities have decided to launch a formal investigation into French presidential candidate Francois Millon's alleged misuse of public funds.  Upside leaders include Engie +7.5%, LafargeHolcim (+2.8%), and TechnipFMC (+2.0%).  The biggest laggards include Essilor Intl. (-2.0%), L'Oreal (-1.0%), and Unibail-Rodamco (-0.8%)

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended on Thursday with strength in Japan and weakness across China. Macro data was fairly light in the region, with just Australia releasing anything of note. Japanese equities hit level not seen since January of 2016, echoing the robust move seen in yesterday's US session, leading to a 0.9% gain in the Nikkei on Thursday. The dollar continued to gain ground against the yen, pushing to the USDJPY solidly back over the 114 level.

• In economic data:
  • Aus
    • Jan Trade Balance (in AUD): 1.302 bln vs 3.800 bln exp
    • Jan Building Approvals: +1.8% vs -0.5%e

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei climbed 0.9% as the yen continued yesterday's retreat against the dollar. Although exporters showed relative strength, Toyota missed out on the day's rally, closing the day up just 0.01% after reporting its February auto sales yesterday. Toshiba outperformed the benchmark after reports suggested Foxconn is an active player in the bidding for Toshiba's chip unit.
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng gave back the 0.2% the index posted on Wednesday. Gaming names eased back slightly with Galaxy Entertainment losing 0.3%. Most financials also had a poor showing with Bank of China losing 1.0% while ICBC lost 0.6%
• In China, the Shanghai (-0.5%) could not capitalize on Wednesday's bullish sentiment in equities across the global landscape. The market had few upticks throughout the day, with the index closing at session lows. The PBOC did little to entice investors with just a CNY30 bln capital infusion. Although there was no particular economic data points from the Mainland, bank stocks were weaker after a report circulated that the CBRC is looking to tighten regulation on off balance sheet investment instruments.
• In India, the Sensex fell 0.5% after tappiong 52 week highs during the early stages of trading. Metal names were on the move higher after reports that 28 cities in China will cut production. National Aluminum was the biggest beneficiary, gaining 5.2%, while Hindalco could only muster a gain of 0.2% by day's end. 

---FX---

• USDJPY +0.6% to 114.37
• USDCNY +0.1% to 6.8858
• USDINR -0.2% to 66.7100

Treasuries Slip as Brainard Sounds a More Hawkish Note

• U.S. Treasuries are moving lower this morning as the U.S. Dollar Index rallies 0.29% to 102.08, a six-week high. More hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Lael Brainard last night, in which she said that it will «likely be appropriate soon to remove additional accommodation,» are helping to keep bond bulls and dollar bears on the sidelines. The eurozone inflation data for February were in line with economists' expectations, with headline consumer price inflation running at 2.0% y/y and core inflation steady at 0.9%. It is important to note that year-on-year oil price appreciation will wane over the coming months and so won't provide the same boost to headline inflation. The employment situation in both Spain and Italy improved. Today's U.S. session will be light on economic data ahead of Friday's release of ISM Services, the grand finale to a busy week. The S&P 500 is set to open down 0.18% to 2,391.9 and WTI crude is losing 0.95% to $53.32/bbl. Gold is losing 0.68% to $1,241.5/troy oz. as the stronger greenback weighs on the metal
• Yield Check:
  
  • 2-yr: +2 bps to 1.30%
  • 5-yr: +2 bps to 2.01%
  • 10-yr: +3 bps to 2.48%
  • 30-yr: +2 bps to 3.08%

• International News:
  
  • Fed Governor Lael Brainard said on Wednesday evening that «it will likely be appropriate soon to remove additional accommodation, continuing on a gradual path» if the U.S. economy continues its current trends. Her comments appear to push the Fed closer to a March 15 rate hike, particularly given her role at the head of the FOMC's dovish wing. Fed governors always vote
    • She went on to say that «foreign growth is on more solid footing,» which is notable because Brainard has been more attuned than her colleagues to international risks." Brainard also said that, «after being an important constraint in the past few years, the external environment currently appears more benign than it has been for some time»
  • In Australia, building approvals rose 1.8% m/m in January, beating expectations and reversing most of December's 2.5% decline
    
    • The trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed to AUD1.30 bln from AUD3.33 bln
  • Korea's manufacturing PMI ticked up to 49.2 in February from 49.0 in January
    
    • Industrial production grew by 3.3% m/m in January (1.7% y/y), surpassing expectations after a 0.5% decline in December
  • Switzerland's GDP grew by just 0.1% y/y in the fourth quarter (0.6% y/y), missing expectations but matching Q3's growth rate
    • Swiss retail sales fell by 1.4% y/y in January, beating estimates a 4.1% slide in December
  • The eurozone's consumer price index rose by 2.0% y/y in February, meeting expectations. January's inflation rate was 1.8% y/y
    
    • The eurozone's core CPI increased by 0.9% y/y for the third-straight month, in line with estimates
    • The eurozone's producer price index rose 0.7% m/m in January (3.5% y/y), topping estimates after 0.8% growth in December
  • Spanish unemployment fell by 9.4K workers in February, beating forecasts after a 57.3K-person jump in January
    
    • Spain's GDP growth for Q4 was confirmed at 0.7% q/q (3.0% y/y)
  • Italy's monthly unemployment rate remained at 11.9% in January, better than economists had expected
  • The U.K.'s construction purchasing managers' index unexpectedly climbed to 52.5 for February from 52.2 in January

• Data out Today:
  
  • February Challenger Job Cuts (07:30 ET)
  • Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 2/25 and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending 2/18 (08:30 ET)
  • Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending 2/18 (10:30 ET)
• Fed Speaker:
  
  • Cleveland Fed President Mester (non-FOMC voter) (19:00 ET)

• Stifel raises their price target to $57 from $55, reiterates Buy.  They note that Monster Beverage Corp. reported a meaningful sales and EPS beat in 4Q16 and also provided a solid month of January gross sales update on its earnings call. They believe the result is far better than feared given concerns that decelerating growth in U.S. scanner data indicated weakening end-demand. International legacy sales increased approximately 55% y/y, more than 2x the full-year growth rate, benefiting from accelerating brand awareness and the transition to Coke distribution in the majority of international geographies. Additionally, operating margin expanded 360bps y/y to 39.5% (or about 200bps normalizing for a benefit from lower promotional expenses in 4Q16), reflecting solid leverage on heightened expenses and likely helping to alleviate concerns about Monster's ability to manage incremental investment. Monster also announced a new $500mm share repurchase authorization given continued strong free cash flow generation.
• RBC notes that MNST shares rallied +11% after-hours (bringing the stock into green territory from a year ago) on strong 4Q16 and January '17 sales growth (relative to expectations). Ahead of the print, investors were downbeat on Monster due to soft scanner data, but as they have written before, they think investors are under-appreciating Monster's long-term growth opportunity in non-tracked channels and international. Reiterates Outperform, $61 tgt.

Shares are currently trading ~12.6% higher in the pre-market

For phosphate producers, 2017 is off to a good start. Prices and margins have moved up sharply during what typically is a seasonally slow period, and fundamentals continue to look positive heading into the upcoming application season.

Several developments are driving up prices.

Global shipments of the leading products are projected to post solid gains this year as a result of much leaner channel inventories as well as strong agronomic and economic demand drivers.

Sales are off to a fast start this year because distributors who deferred purchases as prices declined last year are now scrambling to cover large commitments as prices rise this year. At the same time, Chinese export availability has declined due to a take-off of domestic shipments as well as a drop in industry output. More recently, rain storms and large swells have delayed peak shipments out of the large Jorf Lasfar facility in Morocco. Finally, it looks like new capacity will not deliver material tonnage until later this year or in 2018. These developments have brought the global phosphate market into a much tighter balance and have quickly turned sentiment.

Mosaic expects that the recent price momentum will continue through the upcoming application season. Momentum could even accelerate if shipping delays worsen, the application season breaks early, Chinese export availability remains limited, and agricultural commodity prices hold up.

The outlook for the second half of this year looks less certain. At this point, however, the key swing factors — Chinese exports, global shipments, and the start-up of new capacity — look like they are tilting in favor of a continued tight supply/demand balance through the end of this year>

A little background:

• MOS is the largest integrated phosphate producer in the world and one of the largest producers and marketers of phosphate-based animal feed ingredients in the United States. It is also one of the four largest potash producers in the world
• The co is organized into three reportable business segments: Phosphates, Potash and International Distribution
• In 2015, 48% of total sales came from its phosphate segment, 26% of sales came from potash and 26% of sales came from international distribution
• Meanwhile, 48% of total operating earnings came its phosphate segment, 47% from potash and 5% from international distribution
• It's 2016 10-K will be out soon

• Cowen raises their AVGO tgt to $240 from $210. Stock performance has finally delivered on the promise worthy of their (and many others') adoration. Street numbers are looking less conservative, but targets still have headroom and they see a clear path to $240-250 while simultaneously being able to increasingly appeal to income investors. Target to $240, not massive upside to still warrant Top Pick in semis, but still solid enough.
• Drexel Hamilton reaises tgt to $260 from 210. Although Wireless is expected to be down again in Q2, AVGO expects an aggressive Samsung ramp, combined with higher RF and Connectivity dollar content to partially offset the further seasonal decline anticipated from Apple. Overall, Wireless is expected to be down high-single digits, which is better than the typical double-digit declines seen seasonally. Broadcom turned in another strong performance, with results and guidance that were solid across the board delivering upside on most all metrics and an outlook that nicely exceeded the consensus.
• RBC raises tgt to $240 from $230. They see AVGO benefitting from a confluence of multiple tailwinds over the next few quarters: 1) content uptick at Samsung that should enable Wireless to observe better-than-seasonal trends, 2) sustained growth in Wired infrastructure driven by a confluence of momentum in switching/routing and a seasonal increase in demand in broadband access and STB products, 3) continued OpEx control and gross margin expansion given the Apr-qtr is typically the lightest quarter from a revenue and gross profit perspective historically. Fundamentally, they think AVGO is positioned to sustain ~$15.00 in EPS in FY17 and close to $18 in EPS post-BRCD integration, which they expect to close in the next quarter; Top Pick.
• Craig Hallum raises their AVGO tgt to $260 from $210. AVGO remains one of firm's top picks heading into the iPhone 8 which is expected to be the best selling iPhone of all time. Recent rumors suggest AVGO may be supplying the WC chip in the upcoming iPhone 8. They note co has had WC technology and has supplied Apple with other custom ASIC solutions in the past which makes them a likely supplier to Apple (AAPL). While they are not currently modeling for it firm does not rule this out as a possibility, but either way they look for AVGO to see content expansion in Apple's next gen phone. Moreover, while AVGO continues to work through the BRCD acquisition, they believe co will likely make another acquisition in FY17. Firm looks for additional acquisitions to be both top and bottom line accretive to AVGO and think IDTI remains a likely candidate given its strong position in the fast growing Cloud Data Center market, strengthened by its recent acquisition of GIG and strong operating model.
• AVGO +5% at new all time highs premarket

• Marriott International (MAR) announced that it will become an Official NCAA Corporate Partner across all 90 NCAA championships. Designated as the «Official Hotel Partner of the NCAA,» Marriott International and its 30 distinct hospitality brands look forward to welcoming students, alumni, fans, and families across the country.
• CyrusOne (CONE) announced that CyrusOne LP and CyrusOne Finance Corp. have commenced an offer to purchase for cash any and all of their outstanding 6.375% Senior Notes due 2022 .
• Aireon announced today that they have formally received control from Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM) of the first Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) payload hosted on an Iridium NEXT satellite. This is a major milestone on the path towards 100 percent global air traffic surveillance. Aireon now begins a rigorous, in-depth testing and validation process, verifying the capability of the ADS-B payloads.
• American Shared (AMS) entered into a contract to supply a Gamma Knife Perfexion system to Bryan Medical Center, Lincoln, Nebraska. 
• Anglo American plc (NGLOY) draws attention to an announcement issued today by De Beers, the text of which is set out below: Gahcho Kué, the world's largest new diamond mine in the last 13 years, officially began commercial productioni today (2 March 2017). The mine, a joint venture with De Beers Group (51 per cent.) and Mountain Province Diamonds (MPVD) (49 per cent.), is expected to produce approximately 54 million carats of rough diamonds over its lifetime.

The S&P 500 futures trade two points below fair value.

Just in, the latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 223,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 244,000. Today's tally was below the revised prior week count of 242,000 (from 244,000). As for continuing claims, they rose to 2.066 million from the revised count of 2.063 million (from 2.060 million).

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:

• MNST +13.7%, ONP +10.6%, NVGS +9.1%, CWST +6.9%, FOXF +6.8%, PEIX +6.6%, BLDP +6.5%, WTI +6.1%
• AMRC +5.8%, GKOS +5.4%, AVGO +5.3%, SSH +5.1%, JD +4.8%, ANF +4.5%, HIIQ +3.6%, BURL +3.2%, EPE +3.1%
• ALIM +3%, ANW +2.9%, HDSN +2.4%, ASM +2.3%, WSR +2.1%, ACIW +2%, AJRD +1.9%, JCAP +1.1%

Other news:

• AUPH +65.2% (announces its Phase IIb AURA-LV study in lupus nephritis met the complete and partial remission («CR»/ «PR») endpoints at 48 weeks; AURORA Phase III trial with low dose voclosporin on track to commence in 2Q17)
• ALQA +12.7% ( Celgene [CELG] increases active stake to 22.2% (Prior 15.9%) — Celgene purchased 4 mln shares in ALQA's 2/27 private placement)
• VRML +10.6% (announces a contracted agreement with Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan for OVA1)
• EXAS +7.7% (EXACT Sciences and Mayo Clinic study shows promise of new blood-based lung cancer test),
• KAO +2.5% (reviews its R&D Day agenda; Plazomicin NDA submission planned for the second half of 2017 )
• CAMT +2.5% ( announces that 'one of the world's leading CMOS Image Sensor manufacturers' placed multiple orders for inspection and metrology systems)
• VRX +1.6% ( corrects 'misleading report about Salix investigation' )

Analyst comments:

• SRPT +4.3% (upgraded to Outperform at Leerink Partners)
• ARMK +2.7% (added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman)

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:

• SSI -25%, TDOC -10.5%, RMGN -10.2%, MEI -9.8%, JUNO -7.1%, PSTG -6.9%, PLNT -6.2%, PDLI -5.7%
• NKTR -4.8%, OPK -4.4%, KR -4.2%, SHAK -3.8%, BUD -3.8%, RTRX -3.5%, ABEV -3.5%, VGR -2.9%, ATHM -2.1%
• CIO -2%, PRTK -1.7%, FSIC -1.4%, GCP -1.3%, PFMT -1.1%, BOX -1%

Select metals/mining stocks trading lower:

• HMY -3.5%, MTL -3%, AU -1.8%, GFI -1.6%, ABX -1.6%
• GDX -1.5%, NEM -1.5%, SLW -1.3%, GOLD -1%, AG -0.9%

Other news:

• ADPT -29% (files to delay Form 10-K )
• PBYI -20.8% (after Roche's (RHHBY) Phase III APHINITY study for Perjeta met its primary endpoint treating breast cancer; also reported earnings)
• PTCT -18.5% (Ataluren Confirmatory Trial in nonsense mutation cystic fibrosis did not achieve its primary or secondary endpoints)
• AXTI -11.3% (prices its previously announced underwritten public offering of 4,615,385 shares of its common stock at a price to the public of $6.50/share)
• ARES -9.1% (commences a public offering of 7.5 mln common units representing limited partnership interests by a selling unitholder)
• AHP -5.8% (commences offerings of 1,150,000 shares of 5.50% Series B Cumulative Convertible Preferred Stock and 5.75 mln of its common stock)
• KITE -3.4% (commences 4.75 mln common stock offering; also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup)

Analyst comments:

• AEO -0.5% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill)

• Co reported Q4 EPS of $0.17 versus $0.11 last year; -10.6% YoY to $31.4  mln (no ests).
• «Our revenues were essentially flat and profits were down in 2016. Total revenues were $134.7 million, down a bit from 2015, as a result of a 4.3% year-over-year decrease in blended average selling prices (»ASP") that was partially offset by a 4.0% increase in overall sales volume."

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:

• MNST +13.7%, ONP +10.6%, NVGS +9.1%, CWST +6.9%, FOXF +6.8%, PEIX +6.6%, BLDP +6.5%, WTI +6.1%
• AMRC +5.8%, GKOS +5.4%, AVGO +5.3%, SSH +5.1%, JD +4.8%, ANF +4.5%, HIIQ +3.6%, BURL +3.2%, EPE +3.1%
• ALIM +3%, ANW +2.9%, HDSN +2.4%, ASM +2.3%, WSR +2.1%, ACIW +2%, AJRD +1.9%, JCAP +1.1%

Other news:

• AUPH +65.2% (announces its Phase IIb AURA-LV study in lupus nephritis met the complete and partial remission («CR»/ «PR») endpoints at 48 weeks; AURORA Phase III trial with low dose voclosporin on track to commence in 2Q17)
• ALQA +12.7% ( Celgene [CELG] increases active stake to 22.2% (Prior 15.9%) — Celgene purchased 4 mln shares in ALQA's 2/27 private placement)
• VRML +10.6% (announces a contracted agreement with Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan for OVA1)
• EXAS +7.7% (EXACT Sciences and Mayo Clinic study shows promise of new blood-based lung cancer test),
• KAO +2.5% (reviews its R&D Day agenda; Plazomicin NDA submission planned for the second half of 2017 )
• CAMT +2.5% ( announces that 'one of the world's leading CMOS Image Sensor manufacturers' placed multiple orders for inspection and metrology systems)
• VRX +1.6% ( corrects 'misleading report about Salix investigation' )

Analyst comments:

• SRPT +4.3% (upgraded to Outperform at Leerink Partners)
• ARMK +2.7% (added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman)

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:

• SSI -25%, TDOC -10.5%, RMGN -10.2%, MEI -9.8%, JUNO -7.1%, PSTG -6.9%, PLNT -6.2%, PDLI -5.7%
• NKTR -4.8%, OPK -4.4%, KR -4.2%, SHAK -3.8%, BUD -3.8%, RTRX -3.5%, ABEV -3.5%, VGR -2.9%, ATHM -2.1%
• CIO -2%, PRTK -1.7%, FSIC -1.4%, GCP -1.3%, PFMT -1.1%, BOX -1%

Select metals/mining stocks trading lower:

• HMY -3.5%, MTL -3%, AU -1.8%, GFI -1.6%, ABX -1.6%
• GDX -1.5%, NEM -1.5%, SLW -1.3%, GOLD -1%, AG -0.9%

Other news:

• ADPT -29% (files to delay Form 10-K )
• PBYI -20.8% (after Roche's (RHHBY) Phase III APHINITY study for Perjeta met its primary endpoint treating breast cancer; also reported earnings)
• PTCT -18.5% (Ataluren Confirmatory Trial in nonsense mutation cystic fibrosis did not achieve its primary or secondary endpoints)
• AXTI -11.3% (prices its previously announced underwritten public offering of 4,615,385 shares of its common stock at a price to the public of $6.50/share)
• ARES -9.1% (commences a public offering of 7.5 mln common units representing limited partnership interests by a selling unitholder)
• AHP -5.8% (commences offerings of 1,150,000 shares of 5.50% Series B Cumulative Convertible Preferred Stock and 5.75 mln of its common stock)
• KITE -3.4% (commences 4.75 mln common stock offering; also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup)

Analyst comments:

• AEO -0.5% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill)

The S&P 500 futures trade one point below fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended on Thursday with strength in Japan and weakness across China. Macro data was fairly light in the region, with just Australia releasing anything of note. Japanese equities hit level not seen since January of 2016, echoing the robust move seen in yesterday's US session, leading to a 0.9% gain in the Nikkei on Thursday. The dollar continued to gain ground against the yen, pushing to the USD/JPY solidly back over the 114 level.

• In economic data:
  • Aus
    • Jan Trade Balance (in AUD): 1.302 bln vs 3.800 bln exp
    • Jan Building Approvals: +1.8% vs -0.5% exp

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei climbed 0.9% as the yen continued yesterday's retreat against the dollar. Although exporters showed relative strength, Toyota missed out on the day's rally, closing the day up just 0.01% after reporting its February auto sales yesterday. Toshiba outperformed the benchmark after reports suggested Foxconn is an active player in the bidding for Toshiba's chip unit.
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng gave back the 0.2% the index posted on Wednesday. Gaming names eased back slightly with Galaxy Entertainment losing 0.3%. Most financials also had a poor showing with Bank of China losing 1.0% while ICBC lost 0.6%
• In China, the Shanghai (-0.5%) could not capitalize on Wednesday's bullish sentiment in equities across the global landscape. The market had few upticks throughout the day, with the index closing at session lows. The PBOC did little to entice investors with just a CNY30 bln capital infusion. Although there was no particular economic data points from the Mainland, bank stocks were weaker after a report circulated that the CBRC is looking to tighten regulation on off balance sheet investment instruments.
• In India, the Sensex fell 0.5% after tappiong 52 week highs during the early stages of trading. Metal names were on the move higher after reports that 28 cities in China will cut production. National Aluminum was the biggest beneficiary, gaining 5.2%, while Hindalco could only muster a gain of 0.2% by day's end. 

Major European indices are mixed, cooling their jets somewhat following big gains on Wednesday.  A focal point this morning is the eurozone's CPI report for February, which showed consumer prices up 2.0% year-over-year, which is ahead of the ECB's target of below, but close to, 2.0%.  Energy played a large part in driving up headline inflation as core CPI was up a tamer 0.9% year-over-year.  Nevertheless, some consternation over the potential implications for the ECB's monetary policy have helped temper some of Wednesday's trading enthusiasm. The euro, however, has not followed the CPI print higher. It is down 0.4% against the dollar at 1.0513.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone February CPI +2.0% year-over-year (expected +2.0%; last +1.8%); Core CPI +0.9% year-over-year (expected +0.9%; last +0.9%)
  • Eurozone February CPI +3.5% year-over-year (expected +3.2%; last +1.6%); PPI +0.7% month-over-month (expected +0.6%; last +0.8%)
  • Eurozone January Unemployment Rate 9.6% (expected 9.6%; last 9.6%)
  • Spain Q4 GDP unrevised at +0.7% quarter-over-quarter (expected +0.7%) and +3.0% year-over-year (expected +3.0%)
  • Spain Unemployment Change -9.4K (expected +5.2K; last +57.3K)
  • Germany January Import Price Index +0.9% month-over-month (expected +0.4%; last +1.9%) and +6.0% year-over-year (expected +5.5%; last +3.5%)
  • Switzerland Q4 GDP +0.1% quarter-over-quarter (expected +0.5%; last +0.1%) and +0.6% year-over-year (expected +1.3%; last +1.4%)
  • Italy January Unemployment Rate 11.9% (expected 12.0%; last 11.9%)
  • UK February Construction PMI 52.5 (expected 52.2; last 52.2)

---Equity Markets---

• UK's FTSE is down 0.1%, cooling off after Wednesday's 1.6% gain and digesting news reports suggesting Prime Minister May is likely to trigger Article 50 on March 15. Individual stock leaders include the likes of ConvaTec Group (+5.6%), BT Group (+2.1%), and GKN (+1.4%).  On the flip side, the biggest laggards include Capita (-8.1%), Merlin Entertainments (-3.5%), and Schroders (-2.1%).
• Germany's DAX is up 0.1% following a 2.0% gain on Wednesday.  BASF (+1.6%), Commerzbank (+0.9%), and Volkswagen (+0.7%) lead on the upside while Deutsche Telekom (-1.8%), Thyssenkrupp (-0.8%), and Deutsche Post (-0.7%) are setting the pace for downside laggards.
• France's CAC is up 0.1% on the heels of Wednesday's 2.1% gain, and looking undeterred for the most part by the news that authorities have decided to launch a formal investigation into French presidential candidate Francois Millon's alleged misuse of public funds.  Upside leaders include Engie (+7.3%), LafargeHolcim (+2.7%), and TechnipFMC (+1.2%).  The biggest laggards include Essilor Intl. (-2.1%), L'Oreal (-0.9%), and Unibail-Rodamco (-1.0%).

Economic Data Summary:

• Weekly Initial Claims 223K vs Briefing.com consensus of 244K; Last Week was 244K
• Weekly Continuing Claims 2.066 M (Last Week was revised to 2.063 M from 2.060 M)
  • The key takeaway from the report — aside from the fact that initial claims are at a 44-year low — is that it will help underpin the growing belief in the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising the target range for the federal funds rate at its March 14-15 FOMC meeting.

Upcoming Economic Data:

• February ISM Services due out Friday at 10:00 (Briefing.com consensus of 56.5%; January was 56.5%)

Upcoming Fed/Treasury Events:

• Fed's Mester to speak tomorrow at 19:00 ET
• Fed's Evans & Lacker to speak tomorrow at 10:15 ET
• Fed's Powell to speak tomorrow at 12:15 ET
• Fed's Vice Chair Stanley Fischer to speak  tomorrow at 13:00 ET
• Fed' Chair Janet Yellen to speak tomorrow at 13:00 ET

Other International Events of Interest

• Eurozone February CPI +2.0% year-over-year (expected +2.0%; last +1.8%); Core CPI +0.9% year-over-year (expected +0.9%; last +0.9%)

• Based on the 2016 twelve-month average WTI Price of $42.75 per barrel, current Production Taxes, and the Chargeable Costs adjusted as prescribed by the Overriding Royalty Conveyance, it is estimated that royalty payments to the Trust will continue through the year 2018, and would be zero in the following year. Therefore, no proved reserves are currently attributed to the BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust after that date. Even if expected reservoir performance does not change, the estimated reserves, economic life and future net revenues attributable to the Trust may change significantly in the future. This may result from sustained periods of change in the WTI Price, the Production Tax or from changes in other prescribed variables utilized in calculations as defined by the Overriding Royalty Conveyance.
• Last year's disclosure: Royalty payments to the Trust, based on calculations using a 2015 WTI Price of $50.28 per barrel, among other prescribed variables, are projected to cease after 2020.

Taking an early look at the options market, we found the following names that may be worth watching throughout the day for further indication of investor expectations given their options volume and implied volatility movement.

Stocks seeing volatility buying (bullish call buying/bearish put buying):

Calls:

• LITE Mar 48 calls are seeing interest with the underlying stock down 4% following senior note offering with 1690 contracts trading vs. open int of 280, pushing implied vol up around 6 points to ~52% — co to offer $350 mln aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due in 2024 in a private placement. Co is scheduled to present at a Laser Motor conference on March 14.  Co is expected to report earnings early May.

Puts:

• LULU Weekly Mar03 65.5 puts are seeing interest with 1130 contracts trading vs. open int of 2370, pushing implied vol up around 3 points to ~30% — co is expected to report earnings late March.

Stocks seeing volatility selling:

• BKS, SHLD, KR, JOY, NDLS, MNST implied vol is lower following earnings/guidance

Sentiment: The CBOE Put/Call ratio is currently: 0.94… VIX: (11.91, -0.63, -5.2%).
March 17 is options expiration — the last day to trade March equity options.
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The following are some of today's most notable movers of interest, categorized by market capitalization (large cap over $10 billion and mid cap between $2-10 billion) and ranked by % change (all stocks over 100K average daily volume).

Large Cap Gainers

• MNST (48.46 +15.35%): Shares rise on Q4 revenue beat.
• JD (31.83 +3.78%): Reports Q4 EPS and revenue beats; guides Q1 revs in-line.
• AVGO (219.24 +1.91%): Reports Q1 EPS and revenue beats; guides Q2 revs above consensus.

Large Cap Losers

• ABEV (5.5 -4.43%): Shares fall on Q4 revenue miss.
• KR (30.79 -3.96%): Shares fall after missing comp estimates for the 4th straight quarter.
• BUD (106.79 -2.87%): Reports Q4 EPS miss.

Mid Cap Gainers

• ACIW (21.94 +11.31%): Reports Q4 revenue beat.
• EXAS (23.44 +5.82%): Co and Mayo Clinic study shows promise of new blood-based lung cancer test.
• BURL (92.74 +4.58%): Reports Q4 EPS and revenue beats; guides FY18 EPS and revenues above consensus.

Mid Cap Losers

• GEF (52.96 -12.19%): Shares fall on Q1 EPS miss.
• OPK (7.62 -8.96%): Reports Q4 revenue miss.
• VGR (21.79 -6%): Reports Q4 EPS miss.