Америка сегодня. ВВП, деловая активность и доверие потребителей.

• XOMA Corporation (XOMA) announced today that Jim Neal, Chief Executive Officer, will present the company's new strategic initiatives and value drivers at the Cowen and Company 37th Annual Health Care Conference on Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 11:20 a.m. ET.
• TeleTech Holdings (TTEC) received a General Services Administration Information Technology (IT) Schedule 70 Contract award in the final quarter of the government's fiscal year 2016. The company's customer experience solutions, offered through TeleTech Technology, are now available to federal, state, and local government buyers through GSA IT Schedule Contract Number GS-35F-151GA.
• Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (TNXP) announced that it will present at the Cowen and Company 37th Annual Health Care Conference being held March 6-8, 2017 in Boston.  Seth Lederman, M.D., president and chief executive officer of Tonix, will provide a corporate update and an overview of the Tonix posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) clinical program. TNX-102 SL was recently granted Breakthrough Therapy designation by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of PTSD. Tonix will commence in this quarter a 12-week Phase 3 clinical study, the «HONOR» study, evaluating TNX-102 SL, 5.6 mg, in military-related PTSD. The interim analysis of the HONOR study is expected in the first half of 2018 and topline results are expected in the second half of 2018.
• The European Commission has approved under the EU Merger Regulation the acquisition of joint control over GfK SE («GfK») of Germany by KKR & Co. (KKR) and GfK-Nürnberg Gesellschaft für Konsum-, Markt- und Absatzforschung e.V of Germany. The Commission concluded that the proposed transaction would raise no competition concerns because the companies are not active on the same or on related markets.
• The European Commission has approved under the EU Merger Regulation the proposed acquisition of the insurance businesses of American International Group (AIG) in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia by Fairfax Financial Holdings (FRFHF). The Commission concluded that the proposed acquisition would raise no competition concerns because the overlaps between the companies' activities are limited.
• On February 27, 2017 Visteon Corporation (VC) entered into a Master Confirmation and a Supplemental Confirmation with UBS AG, London Branch to purchase shares of its common stock for an initial payment of $125 million. The ASB Agreement was entered into as part of the Company's previously announced share repurchase authorization.

Treasuries Edge Higher Ahead of GDP and Trump Speech

• U.S. Treasuries are trading a touch higher this morning ahead of the second official estimate of Q4 U.S. GDP growth. In international data, French GDP growth matched Germany's in the fourth quarter of 2016 at 0.4% q/q, as expected. French consumer price inflation ran cooler than expected in February but Italian inflation exceeded economists' estimates. Japanese industrial production declined in January for the first time since August. Today's U.S. session also features four Fed speakers (only Kaplan and Harker vote) and President Trump will address Congress tonight and has said that he will fill in more details on fiscal stimulus. The U.S. Dollar Index is losing 0.10% to 101.03 as the Japanese yen rallies against the greenback and the S&P 500 is set to open down 0.10% to 2,2367.6. WTI crude is off by 0.24% to $53.92/bbl. and gold is down 0.36% to $1,254.3/troy oz.
• Yield Check:
  
  • 2-yr: unch at 1.20%
  • 5-yr: unch at 1.87%
  • 10-yr: -1 bp to 2.36%
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 2.97%

• International News:
  
  • In Japan, industrial production fell by 0.8% m/m in January, the first decline since August 2016. Economists had expected more growth after December's 0.7% jump
    
    • Retail sales in Japan grew by 1.0% y/y in January, edging past expectations after a 0.6% increase in December
    • Housing starts rose by 12.8% y/y in January, handily beating forecasts after a 3.9% increase in December
    • Construction orders were up 1.1% y/y in January after a 7.1% gain in December
  • Korea's Manufacturing BSI Index ticked up to 79 for March from the prior reading of 78
  • In Australia, HIA New Home Sales fell by 2.2% m/m in January, reversing December's 0.2% rise
    
    • The current account swung to a deficit of AUD3.9 bln in Q4 from a surplus of AUD10.2 bln in Q3
    • Private sector credit expanded by just 0.2% m/m in January, missing forecasts and slowing from December's 0.7% growth
  • In New Zealand, ANZ Business Confidence dipped to 16.6 in January from 21.7 in December
    
    • The trade deficit widened to NZD285 mln in January from NZD36 mln in December
  • The U.K.'s GfK Consumer Confidence Index declined to -6 for February from -5 in January, as expected
  • France's harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) increased by 0.1% m/m in February (1.4% y/y), missing expectations after a 0.3% slide in January
    
    • French GDP growth ran at 0.4% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2016, matching estimates and Q3's pace
    • French consumer spending grew by 0.6% m/m in January, matching expectations after declining by 1.0% in December
  • Italy's CPI beat expectations in February, rising 0.3% m/m (1.5% y/y) after 0.3% inflation in January
    
    • Italy's HICP rose by 0.2% m/m in February (1.6% y/y), beating forecasts and clawing back some of January's 1.7% drop
  • Spain's current account surplus widened to EUR3.4 bln in December from EUR3.3 bln in November
  • Swiss KOF Leading Indicators jumped to 107.2 for February from 102.0 in January

• Data out Today:
  
  • Q4 GDP and GDP Deflator — Second Estimate (08:30 ET)
  • February Chicago PMI (09:45 ET)
  • February Consumer Confidence (10:00 ET)
• Fed Speakers:
  
  • Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter)
  • Philadelphia Fed President Harker (15:00 ET)
  • San Francisco Fed President Williams (non-FOMC voter) (15:30 ET)
  • St. Louis Fed President Bullard (non-FOMC voter) (18:30 ET)

Upgrades: 

• Allianz SE (AZSEY) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley
• Tullow Oil plc (TUWLF) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
• Marks and Spencer (MAKSY) upgraded to Buy from Underperform at Jefferies

Downgrades: 

• Nordex (NRDXF) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
• Swiss Re (SSREY) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Societe Generale
• Rightmove (RTMVY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS

Miscellaneous: 

• None of note

Stocks with favorable mention: AAPL, CBG, CELG, CHRW, FB, HON, MLM, NXPI, PVH, PYPL, REGN, TXN, UTX, VAC, WDAY

Stocks with unfavorable mention: ARRY, ESPR, FSLR, QCOM, SLCA, WB

• 2017 Targeting ~15% RoTCE
  • 11% CET1 Ratio (2016 12.2%)
    • 12.2%2 CET1 ratio at 2016 year-end
    • Aim to remain within 11-12.5% corridor in the medium-term
    • Implies payouts between 80-120% using analyst estimates for the next two years
  • 55% Overhead Ratio
  • 55-75% Net payout ratio (2016 65%)
• Continue to grow the balance sheet on strong loan growth funded by deposits Expect 2017 YoY average core loan growth of ~10%.
• Expect 2017 and medium-term NCO rates to remain relatively flat across businesses with the exception of Card and CIB
  • Card- seasoning of newer origination vintages will drive loss rates modestly higher, but at higher risk adjusted margins
  • CIB- down due to absence of energy related charge-offs
• 2017 Firmwide NCOs of $5B ± driven by loan growth
• Consumer
  • Expect reserve build of ~$300mm — growth across businesses offset by mortgage release
• Wholesale
  • Expect modest reserve build across wholesale ex-energy
• Basel IV — not expected to be binding
• Q1 Outlook
  • Investment Banking — IB revenue in 1Q17 in-line with 4Q16, dependent on timing of deals closing.
  • Markets — total revenue in 1Q17 to increase modestly YoY with results sensitive to market conditions
• FY17 Outlook
  • Mortgage — NIR down ~($700)mm for the year on higher rates and continued run-off of servicing portfolio as well as the absence of $200mm+ MSR gains in 2016
  • Card Services — NIR down ~($600)mm for the year primarily on account acquisition costs
  • Net Income of $30B+ and ROTCE of 14-15%+

European Sovereign Debt Mixed

• European sovereign bonds are seeing mixed results this morning after French inflation missed estimates for February while Italian inflation was faster than expected. Sweden's economy surged in the fourth quarter of 2016 to print 1.0% q/q GDP growth, well ahead of Germany and France's 0.4%. 10-year sovereign yields in France, Italy, and Spain have fallen to their 50-day moving averages this week as optimism over the French election has supported buying of eurozone periphery debt. For the reflation trade to resume, markets are going to need evidence that January inflation figures were not just an artifact of very low crude oil prices back in early 2016 that are flattering year-on-year inflation data. The PMI data from the eurozone and the U.K. has been strong for the past few months so there is hope, but election uncertainty in France still looms large. Also of note today, Switzerland's KOF Leading Indicators surged in February
• New Issuance:
  
  • Germany sold EUR4.14 bln of 2-year schatz at an average yield of -0.92% with a bid-to-cover of 1.76
• Central Banks:
  
  • Hungary's central bank kept its benchmark policy rate at 0.9%, as expected. Forbearance at the National Bank of Hungary in the face of 2.3% y/y CPI inflation is not expected to hurt the Hungarian forint because of falling German yields at the short-end of the curve and a generally strengthening global economy
• European Economic Data:
  
  • France's harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) increased by 0.1% m/m in February (1.4% y/y), missing expectations after a 0.3% slide in January
    
    • French GDP growth ran at 0.4% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2016, matching estimates and Q3's pace
    • French consumer spending grew by 0.6% m/m in January, matching expectations after declining by 1.0% in December
  • Italy's CPI beat expectations in February, rising 0.3% m/m (1.5% y/y) after 0.3% inflation in January
    
    • Italy's HICP rose by 0.2% m/m in February (1.6% y/y), beating forecasts and clawing back some of January's 1.7% drop
  • Spain's current account surplus widened to EUR3.4 bln in December from EUR3.3 bln in November
  • Ireland's ILO unemployment rate fell to 6.6% in February from 7.1% in January
  • The U.K.'s GfK Consumer Confidence Index declined to -6 for February from -5 in January, as expected
  • Swiss KOF Leading Indicators jumped to 107.2 for February from 102.0 in January
  • Sweden's GDP grew by 1.0% q/q in the fourth quarter (2.3% y/y), slightly beating estimates after 0.3% growth in Q3
  • Polish GDP growth for Q4 was finalized at 1.7% q/q (2.7% y/y)
• Yield Check:
  
  • France, 10-yr OAT: +1 bp to 0.90%
  • Germany, 10-yr bund: +2 bps to 0.21%
  • Greece, 10-yr note: +1 bp to 7.06%
  • Italy, 10-yr BTP: -4 bps to 2.10%
  • Portugal, 10-yr PGB: +1 bp to 3.87%
  • Spain, 10-yr ODE: -2 bps to 1.56%
  • U.K., 10-yr gilt: +1 bp to 1.08%

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:

• NTRI +19.4%, PAH +5.6%, KND +5.1%, BWXT +5%, FRO +4.8%, USCR +4.7%, IONS +4.5%, GOGL +4.4%, TCMD +4.3%
• PCLN +4.2%, NRG +4.2%, AMRN +4.1%, ICD +3.7%, ANTH +3%, ESV +2.8%, DPZ +2.7%, HTZ +2%, WUBA +2%, HSKA +1.9%
• NLNK +1.9%, EOG +1.6%, ALB +1.5%, GAIA +1.2%, SGMO +1%

M&A news:

• SBY +17.9% (Silver Bay Realty Trust agrees to be acquired for $21.50 per share in cash) 

Select metals/mining stocks trading higher:

• SBGL +2.1%, GOLD +1.7%, GFI +1.7%, AKS +1.2%, AU +1%, GDX +1%, NEM +0.9%

Other news:

• ROX +45.2% (announces an agreement to supply Goslings Stormy Ginger Beer and Goslings Stormy Diet Ginger Beer to all U.S. Walmart (WMT) stores)
• NSPR +15.4% (continued strength), INUV +13.5% (Inuvo's Vertro and Google entered into a Google Services Agreement)
• LIFE +10.1% (announces that its product candidate Resolaris was granted Orphan Drug Designation by the FDA for the treatment of limb girdle muscular dystrophy patients)
• DRYS +8.6% (to initiate a new dividend policy; will pay a regular fixed quarterly dividend of $2.5 million to the holders of common stock)
• CANF +7.7% (announces new data that 'show its liver disease drug candidate Namodenoson (CF102) prevented liver (hepatic) fibrosis progression in preclinical studies)
• AMD +1.1% (continued strength)

Analyst comments:

• DRRX +2.9% (resumed with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright)
• X +2.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Cowen)
• CSX +1.7% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank)
• AYR +1.3% (upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill)

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:

• FRGI -14.6%, (also provides strategic update), ESND -14.4%
• I -13.6%, (confirms it will merge w/ OneWeb in a share-for-share transaction; also confirms a definitive share purchase agreement pursuant to which SoftBank (SFTBY) will invest $1.7 bln in newly issued common and preferred shares of the combined co)
• TGT -13.2%, CEMP -11.9%
• PRGO -11.4%, (also announces the resignation of CFO Judy Brown effective April 1, 2017; Ron Winowiecki appointed CFO effective immediately; to divest Tysabri royalty stream for up to $2.85 billion )
• THC -11.3%, KONA -9.9%, NVAX -9.8%, OPHT -7.9%, SPNS -7.3%, FTR -7%, AAC -6.5%, KRA -5.9%, WDAY -5.3%, ZTO -4.5%, EXEL -4.3%
• IPWR -4.2%, (enters into a definitive securities purchase agreement with various investors to raise gross proceeds of approx. $15 mln in a private placement of common stock and warrants to purchase common stock)
• CPE -4.2%, VRX -4.2%, KTOS -3%, DS -2.3%, ENDP -2%, LNG -1.9%, GPL -1.6%, OKS -1.5%, KITE -1.5%, APLE -1.2%, AZO -0.9%

Other news:

• NVAX -9.8% (pulling back after closing near highs with notable afternoon move to highs)
• OWCP -9.3% (after closing approx 30% higher on Monday)
• TTNP -7.9% (receives FDA communication on ropinirole implant Investigational New Drug Application; FDA indicated that it will require final release test data)
• PULM -7.2% (continued strength)
• HTGM -7.2% (modestly pulling back following 154% gain yesterday)
• ORA -4.2% (provides response to reports about potential transaction)
• TCAP -3.6% (announces the commencement of a public offering of 7,000,000 shares of common stock ), O -2.5% (upsizes offering by by 2.05 mln shares and prices 10.85 mln shares shares of common stock at $62.00)
• KR -1.8% (in sympathy with TGT results)
• TZOO -1.6% (following PCLN results)
• SQ -1.3% (commences $350 mln offering of convertible senior notes due in 2022)
• WMT -1.2% (in sympathy with TGT results)
• JPM -0.9% (hosts Investor Day, provides Q1 outlook)

Analyst comments:

• CENX -3.8% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank)
• FSLR -3.4% (initiated with a Sell at Axiom Capital)
• TRIP -1.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Needham)

The S&P 500 futures trade four points below fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mixed note, but once again, trading ranges were fairly narrow as participants awaited U.S. President Donald Trump's first address to Congress, which will take place tonight. China's Vice Premier Wang Yang called on his country to maintain non-confrontational principle with the U.S. despite recent reports of increased military spending on both sides.

• In economic data:
  • Japan's January Housing Starts +12.8% year-over-year (consensus 3.2%; last 3.9%). January Construction Orders +1.1% year-over-year (last 7.1%). January Industrial Production -0.8% month-over-month (expected 0.3%; last 0.7%) and January Retail Sales +1.0% year-over-year (expected 0.9%; last 0.6%)
  • Australia's Q4 Current Account deficit AUD3.90 billion (expected deficit of AUD3.60 billion; previous surplus of AUD10.20 billion). January Private Sector Credit +0.2% month-over-month (expected 0.5%; last 0.7%). January HIA New Home Sales -2.2% month-over-month (last 0.2%)
  • New Zealand's January trade deficit NZD3.47 billion (expected deficit of NZD3.20 billion; last deficit of NZD3.17 billion). January ANZ Business Confidence 16.6 (last 21.7)
  • India's Q3 GDP +7.0% (expected 6.4%; last 7.3%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei added 0.1%. Hitachi Construction, Kobe Steel, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Komatsu, Okuma, and TOTO gained between 1.3% and 2.8%. On the downside, Toshiba fell 3.8% to continue its recent woes.
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.8%, returning to levels from two weeks ago. Apple supplier AAC Technologies was the worst performer, falling 2.9%. Financials also lagged with Bank of East Asia, China Life Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and HSBC losing between 0.8% and 1.8%. Gaming names like Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment outperformed with respective gains of 1.3% and 0.4%.
• China's Shanghai Composite added 0.4%. China World Trade Center, Hunan Haili Chemical Industry, Chengdu Xuguang Electronics, Giti Tire, and Anhui Expressway rose between 4.0% and 5.0%.
• India's Sensex shed 0.2%. Coal India, Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, and NTPC lost between 1.0% and 2.5% while financials were mixed. ICICI Bank, AXIS Bank, and HDFC Bank posted losses between 0.3% and 0.9% while SBI added 0.4%.

Major European indices trade near their flat lines while Spain's IBEX (+0.7%) outperforms. New Bank of England deputy governor, Charlotte Hogg, said her tolerance for above-target inflation would depend on events. Ms. Hogg acknowledged that inflation is squeezing household incomes. In Greece, government officials are expected to meet with auditors, putting together a list of policies that need to be implemented before additional bailout funds are unlocked.

• In economic data:
  • France's Q4 GDP +0.4% quarter-over-quarter, as expected (last 0.4%). January CPI +0.1% month-over-month (expected 0.4%; last -0.2%). January Consumer Spending +0.6% month-over-month, as expected (last -1.0%)
  • Italy's February CPI +0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.1%; last 0.3%); +1.5% year-over-year (last 1.0%)
  • Swiss February KOF Leading Indicators 107.2 (expected 102.1; last 102.0)

---Equity Markets---

• Germany's DAX is lower by 0.1% with more than half of its components trading lower. Infineon is down 1.8% while automakers trade mixed. BMW and Volkswagen both show modest gains of 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively, while Daimler trades lower by 0.4%. Financials Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank outperform, rising near 0.6% apiece.
• France's CAC hovers near its flat line. ArcelorMittal has slid 1.7% while consumer names like Danone, Accor, Louis Vuitton, L'Oreal, and Klepierre are down between 0.3% and 0.6%. Financials and defense contractors outperform with BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Societe Generale, Airbus Group, and Safran rising between 0.2% and 1.4%.
• UK's FTSE trades flat as miners lag while select health care names outperform. Randgold Resources, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Anglo American, and Fresnillo are down between 0.7% and 2.2%. On the upside, Hikma Pharmaceuticals and AstraZeneca show respective gains of 2.5% and 1.3%.
• Spain's IBEX has jumped 0.7% with Ferrovial spiking 4.1% after upbeat results. Financials like Banco Popular, Caixabank, Santander, Banco Sabadell, and BBVA are up between 0.2% and 1.7%.

Filings:

• Radian Group (RDN) files mixed securities shelf offering
• Wabash Natl (WNC) files mixed securities shelf offering

Offerings:

• Everbridge (EVBG) intends to file a registration statement with the SEC in late March 2017 for a proposed underwritten public offering of common stock; the proposed offering is expected to be predominantly from existing shareholders and be approximately $50 mln
• Silicon Labs (SLAB) plans to offer $350 million principal amount of its Convertible Senior Notes due 2022 through a private offering
• Square (SQ) commences $350 mln offering of convertible senior notes due in 2022

Pricings:

• Alliqua (ALQA 0.4948) announces private placement of 5.54 mln shares of its common stock at $0.50/share
• Corindus Vascular Robotics (CVRS 0.6616) enters into a Securities Purchase Agreement; will issue and sell an aggregate of 67,941,346 shares of its common stock in a private placement at $0.6616/share
• Encore Capital (ECPG 35.05) prices $150 mln of 3.25% convertible senior notes due 2022
• Ideal Power (IPWR 2.40) enters into a definitive securities purchase agreement with various investors to raise gross proceeds of approx. $15 mln in a private placement of common stock and warrants to purchase common stock; sold at a per share price of $2.535/share
• Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP 36.65) prices 8.5 mln shares of common stock at $36.00 per share
• Realty Income (O 63.14) upsizes offering by by 2.05 mln shares and prices 10.85 mln shares shares of common stock at $62.00/share
• Triangle Capital (TCAP 19.99) prices an underwritten public offering of 7,000,000 shares of common stock at $19.50/share
• The Trade Desk (TTD 36.83) prices upsized follow-on offering by selling shareholders of 6,331,991 shares of Class A common stock at $35.50 per share
• Viavi (VIAV 9.98) prices $400 million aggregate principal amount of its 1.00% Senior Convertible Notes due 2024 in a private offering

• Benchmark raises tgt to $1900 from $1800. Co reported strong 4Q16 results, headlined by a 6% beat on room-night (RN) growth and $58 million in EBITDA upside vs. an aggressive consensus already at the high-end of prior guidance. 1Q17 guidance was also healthy, with the street forecast of 17% gross booking and 20% RN growth at the bottom of the guidance range, although EBITDA was guided $130 million below consensus. Surprising, sustained property growth appears to be the key driver, with additions to traditional augmented by more rapid growth in alternative accomodations, all aided by a leading position in the growing instant-book vertical.
• Needham Research notes PCLN reported 4Q16 revenue of $2.348B (up 17% y/y, 1% above estimates), and Non-GAAP EPS of $14.21 (up 35% y/y, 0.3% above estimates). 4Q16 gross bookings grew 26% y/y in U.S. dollars (up 28% y/y FX neutral) despite slightly lower accommodation ADRs (avg. daily rate). PCLN's 4Q16 gross profit was $2.3B, of which $2B was international, up 23% y/y in USD (up 26% y/y FX neutral), plus US gross profit of $293mm, up 9% y/y. Performance advertising had lower ROIs, but more PCLN revenue came from performance advertising channels in 4Q16. PCLN reported $1.1B of cash from operations in 4Q16, up 26% y/y. For 2016, room night growth was 29%, up 380 basis points vs 2015.
• Stifel Research increases tgt to $2100 from $1900. Priceline reported strong 4Q:16 results highlighted by 31% y/y room night growth, 28% y/y FX-adj. bookings growth, and adj. EBITDA margins of 38.2% (gross profit), all exceeding expectations. Momentum continued into 1Q:17 as Priceline guided next quarter room nights (20%-25%) and FX-adj. bookings (19%-24%) ahead of expectations. Pressure on performance marketing ROI is expected to continue into 1Q, though to a lesser degree than the recent past, and the book vs. day time lag and the Easter shift will pressure margins in the quarter. Management noted that performance ad efficiency in 1H:17 will be more favorable than 2H:16.
• RBC Capital raises tgt to $2000 from $1850. Bookings of $15.1B (up an accelerating and two-year-high 28% Y/Y) handily beat Street/RBC, while EBITDA of $869MM and Non-GAAP EPS of $14.21 also surpassed RBC/Street. PCLN continues to benefit from strength of its brands, a diversified global footprint, and strong execution and Macro factors this quarter were relatively benign. Q1 Bookings and Room Night Growth Guides were better than Street, tho EBITDA and Non-GAAP EPS Guides were below, tho firm believes this was entirely due to Easter timing impact, as Bookings and Expenses are recognized at Booking, but Revenue recognized.

Shares of PCLN are trading approx 4% higher in reaction to earnings.