Блог компании DayTraderClub | Америка сегодня. Данные по рынку труда

• The global equity markets have done very little overnight with majority of the equity markets little changed across the board. S&P Futures slightly lower this morning on thin volume. The overall tone of trading has been quiet, setting the stage for the December Jobs' data released later this morning.
• Japanese equities retreated for a second consecutive day, after yen continued to gain against the dollar throughout yesterday's session. A lot of the pressure in the Nikkei came from heavy-weights in the automotive space with the likes of Toyota and Honda losing ~2% each after reporting December sales results.
• Across the pond, EU bourses are trading slightly lower with the CAC underperforming its regional peers. Frances' benchmark has struggled today after Sanofi was hit with a patent infringement case in the US. Otherwise, economic data has kept the indices at bay, with both German Factory orders and Retail Sales falling 2.5% and 1.8%, respectfully, from the prior month's reading.

Market updates: 

• S&P Futures vs Fair Value: -1.00 
• 10 yr Note: 2.3537% 
• USD/JPY: 116.05 +0.70  
• EUR/USD: 1.0582 -0.0023
• Europe: FTSE -0.1% DAX -0.1% CAC -0.4% 
• Asia: Hang Seng +0.2% Shanghai -0.4% Nikkei -0.3% 
• Commodities: Gold (1177.60 -3.70) Silver (16.53 -0.11) crude (54.05 +0.29) 

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mixed note. Overnight dollar strength helped the greenback erase roughly a third of yesterday's decline against the yen (116.00). The dollar also climbed against the Chinese yuan (6.9186), retracing the bulk of yesterday's move lower. The People's Bank of China advisor Huang Yiping said that there is little fundamental reasoning behind the prolonged slide in the yuan.

• In economic data:
  • Japan's Average Cash Earnings +0.2% year-over-year, as expected (last 0.1%) and November Overtime Pay -1.3% year-over-year (last -1.4%)
  • Australia's November trade surplus AUD1.24 billion (expected deficit of AUD500 million; previous deficit of AUD1.12 billion)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei shed 0.3%, narrowing its weekly gain to 1.8%. Fast Retailing plunged 6.7% after reporting weak December same-store sales at Uniqlo. Automakers were under pressure after Toyota was threatened with an import tax by President-elect Donald Trump. Toyota Motor fell 1.7% while Honda, Nissan Motor, Mitsubishi Motors, and Mazda Motor lost between 1.9% and 3.1%.
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.2% to end the week higher by 2.3%. Energy-related names like China Petrol & Chemical and Petrochina posted respective gains of 1.9% and 1.5% while select property names also displayed relative strength. Hang Lung Properties, China Overseas, Link Reit, SHK Properties, and Cheung Kong Properties gained between 0.7% and 1.9%.
• China's Shanghai Composite lost 0.4%, trimming its weekly advance to 1.6%. Gansu Mogao Industrial Development, Langfang Development, Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical, and Sichuan Guodong Construction posted losses between 3.9% and 5.9%.
• India's Sensex settled lower by 0.4%, but gained 2.8% for the week. Technology names struggled after the US Congress reintroduced a bill aimed at curbing the use of H-1B visas. Infosys, Tata Consultancy, Wipro, and ITC lost between 1.6% and 2.5%. Financials outperformed with HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank gaining 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively.

---FX---

• USDJPY +0.6% to 116.00
• USDCNY +0.4% to 6.9187
• USDINR +0.3% to 67.970

The employment picture is one of the most important guides for the Federal Reserve in setting its monetary policy.  That understanding is just one reason why the Employment Situation Report for December will be the market's focal point on Friday.

• Why it's also important
  • The Employment Situation Report provides a comprehensive look at the state of the U.S. labor market
  • A really strong report could raise concern that the Fed is going to have to be more aggressive in tightening policy in 2017 than previously expected; conversely, a weak report will challenge some of the market's bullish assumptions about 2017 growth prospects
  • The employment report helps drive economists' forecasts for GDP primarily by way of the aggregate earnings data that feeds into consumer spending expectations
  • The employment report carries a political charge as (un)employment and earnings trends help shape the policy narrative, as well as critiques of the Federal Reserve's approach to managing monetary policy
  • The policymaking implications, and implications for U.S. economic growth, contained in this report give it market-moving cachet both here and abroad
    • The Briefing.com consensus estimate for average hourly earnings growth calls for a 0.3% increase in December.  That would leave average hourly earnings up 2.8% year-over-year, consistent with what was seen in October 2016, which was the strongest pace of growth since June 2009.
      
      
• A closer look
  • Nonfarm payrolls: Briefing.com consensus 175,000 (prior 178,000)
  • Nonfarm private payrolls: Briefing.com consensus 170,000 (prior 156,000)
  • Unemployment rate: Briefing.com consensus 4.7% (prior 4.6%)
  • Avg. Hourly Earnings: Briefing.com consensus 0.3% (prior -0.1%)
  • Avg. Workweek: Briefing.com consensus 34.4 (prior 34.4)

The report will be released at 08:30 a.m. ET.

Major European indices trade near their flat lines while Italy's MIB (-0.5%) underperforms. In France, a presidential poll conducted by Les Echos pointed to expectations of a tight three-way race between Emmanuel Macron, Francois Fillon, and Marine Le Pen. French citizens will head to the polls to vote for their next president on Sunday, April 23.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone November Retail Sales -0.4% month-over-month, as expected (last 1.4%); +2.3% year-over-year (last 3.0%). December Business and Consumer Survey 107.8 (consensus 106.8; last 106.6)
  • Germany's November Retail Sales -1.8% month-over-month (consensus -0.6%; last 2.5%); +3.2% year-over-year (expected 1.2%; last -0.8%). November Factory Orders -2.5% month-over-month (consensus -2.3%; last 5.0%)
  • France's November trade deficit narrowed to EUR4.40 billion from EUR5.20 billion (last deficit of EUR4.90 billion)

---Equity Markets---

• Germany's DAX sits just below its flat line. Lufthansa has slid 3.4% in reaction to cautious analyst commentary. Thyssenkrupp, Commerzbank, and Merck also lag, showing losses between 0.6% and 0.9%. On the upside, Continental, SAP, and Bayer are up between 0.4% and 1.4%.
• UK's FTSE is down 0.1%. Miners Fresnillo and Randgold Resources hold respective losses of 3.1% and 2.2% while consumer names like Dixons Carphone, Merlin Entertainments, Marks & Spencer, Paddy Power, and InterContinental Hotels are down between 0.9% and 1.6%.
• France's CAC is down 0.2% with more than half of its components in the red. Sanofi and Technip are down 2.8% and 1.5%, respectively, while financials are mixed. BNP Paribas is down 0.7%, Credit Agricole is lower by 0.5%, and Societe Generale trades higher by 0.4%.
• Italy's MIB is lower by 0.5%. STMicroelectronics is the weakest performer, falling 3.2%. Unicredit, Banca Pop Emilia Romagna, UBI Banca, and FinecoBank show losses between 0.7% and 1.1%. Fiat Chrysler has jumped 5.1% in reaction to a tier 1 upgrade.

Stocks with favorable mention: AAPL, AMZN, ARNC, ASIX, BOX, ECA, FB, HALO, SLB, STZ, VOD

Stocks with unfavorable mention: KSS, LB, M, SLCA, TGT, WMT