Новости рынков | В Citigroup ожидают падения как доллара, так и экономики США
Analysts at Citigroup studied the correlation between the performance of US dollar and the nation’s economic data during the two years after Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy in 2008.
According to the specialists, the greenback rose and fell inversely to American economy gaining in times of its weakness as investors were buying dollar as a refuge. Then the demand for US currency fell as the Fed’s monetary stimulus programs encouraged the market’s risk appetite.
However, such relationship may be over as the as prospects for additional economic stimulus diminish, claims Citigroup. The economists believe that despite unemployment above 9% and other woes, there may be no next round of easing or other measures such as 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. In their view, the market may start to think that US economic slowdown is a positive factor for others and dollar will fall together with American economy.
Citigroup strategists have developed US Surprise Index that shows that US economic data is bringing the worst results since December 2008.