Список проголосовавших за комментарий " Priceline Fourth Quarter Earnings Preview (1618.69 -12.93)<ul><li>PCLN is expected to report fourth quarter earnings tonight after the close. There is a conference call scheduled for 16:30 (the company typically guides in the press release).</li><li><strong>Q4 Capital IQ consensus calls for EPS of $14.12 (versus $12.63 last year) on revenue of $2.33 billion (+16.3% YoY).</strong></li><li><strong>The company is expected to guide for the first quarter where consensus stands at $11.94 for EPS.</strong></li><li>PCLN's peer Expedia (<strong>EXPE</strong>) reported earnings earlier this month. The company missed on the bottom line and beat on the top line. EXPE shares are down ~3% since reporting.</li></ul><p><strong>Key Points From Last Quarter<br/> </strong></p><ul><li>Third quarter gross travel bookings for The Priceline Group were $18.5 billion, an increase of 25% over a year ago (~26% on a constant-currency basis).</li><li>The Group's gross profit for the 3rd quarter was $3.6 billion, a 22% increase from the prior year (~23% on a constant-currency basis).</li><li>International operations contributed gross profit in the 3rd quarter of $3.3 billion, a 25% increase versus a year ago (approximately 26% on a constant-currency basis).</li></ul><p><strong>Metric Guidance:<br/> </strong></p><ul><li><strong>Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the company sees room night booked increasing between +20-25%.</strong></li><li><strong>The company sees total gross travel bookings of +16-21% or +17-22% in constant currency.</strong></li><li><strong>Co sees Q4 adjusted EBITDA between $755-795 mln vs $790 mln last year.</strong></li></ul><p><strong>Analyst Notes:</strong></p><ul><li>Stifel said Priceline's effective strategy to extend its share in secular growth markets organically has demonstrated the strength of the platform's competitive moat. The firm believes that PCLN fits alongside other dominant internet franchises such as Amazon (<strong>AMZN</strong>), Google (<strong>GOOG</strong>), Facebook (<strong>FB</strong>), and Alibaba (<strong>BABA</strong>). Last quarter the company accelerated room night growth to 29% y/y, adding 34mm incremental room nights' y/y, the largest in PCLN's history. For 2017 they expect room nights' growth of 22% y/y despite its scale (~7.6% global penetration), which is comparable to their estimates for Amazon's 26% y/y paid unit growth and Google's 23% y/y paid clicks growth. Priceline may face near-term headwinds from ad ROI pressure, but they view the platform as one of the most disciplined, efficient ad spenders in their coverage. This concentration on ROI and technology could provide leverage upside to their model over the long-term as customer LTV grows with better conversion and up-sell rates. PCLN's track record exhibits the key qualities of a high-quality internet franchise and we believe shares present a LT growth opportunity from current levels.</li></ul><p><strong>Options Activity<br/> </strong></p><ul><li>Based on PCLN options, the current implied volatility stands at ~ 26%, which is 129% higher than historical volatility (over the past 30 days). <strong>Based on the PCLN Mar03 $1627.5 straddle, the options market is currently pricing in a move of ~5% in either direction by February expiration (Friday)</strong></li></ul><p><strong>Technical Perspective<br/> </strong></p>PCLN shares have slightly outperformed the Nasdaq YTD with PCLN increasing by 11% vs 8% gain in the index. PCLN tends to have 4-6% reactions to earnings. <strong>On a positive report, look for resistance near the $1650-1655 area, while support sits near the $1600-1605 vicinity.</strong>"