Список проголосовавших за комментарий " <table class="BriefingDataTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tr> <td class="tickerColumn"> </td> <td class="articleColumn">Apple First Quarter Earnings Preview (121.16 -0.48)<ul><li>AAPL is expected to report first quarter (holiday quarter) earnings tonight after the close. There is a conference call scheduled for 17:00 (the company typically guides in the press release). This is the first full quarter where iPhone 7 sales will be included.</li><li><strong>Q1 Capital IQ consensus calls for EPS of $3.22 (versus $3.28 last year) on revenue of $77.258 bln (+1.6% YoY).</strong> The current consensus is within the company's guidance range of $76-78 billion.</li><li><strong>Revenue Guidance: The company is expected to guide for the second quarter where revenue consensus stands for $53.65 billion.</strong></li><li>Suppliers to keep on radar include: <strong>CRUS, INVN, SWKS, QRVO, QCOM, NXPI, AVGO, TXN, KYO.</strong></li></ul><p><strong>Metrics:</strong></p><ul><li>Taking a look at the fourth quarter, the company reported iPhone sales of 45.5 mln versus 48.05 mln in the same quarter as last year.</li><li>For Q4 iPads, the company reported 9.3 mln units versus 9.9 mln in Q4 of last year.</li><li>Finally, in the fourth quarter, 4.9 mln Macs were sold versus 5.7 mln in Q4 of last year.</li><li><strong>Q1 Product Estimates: Looking ahead to the first quarter, iPhone sales are expected to be ~77.3 mln units versus 74.8 mln last year. iPads are expected to be 14.7 mln vs 16.1 mln last year, while Macs are expected to be 5.2 mln vs 5.3 mln last year.</strong></li><li>Apple does not give specific data on Apple Watch sales. One interesting item of note as for as wearable sales, Fitbit (<strong>FIT</strong>) recently announced disappointing Q4 guidance and job cuts.</li><li>The next area of interest will be gross margins. Taking a look at last quarter, the company reported Q4 gross margins of 38.0% versus 39.9% last year.</li><li><strong>Q1 Margins: Looking ahead to the first quarter, The Street is expecting margins near ~38.5% versus 40.1% last year (guidance 38.0-38.5%).</strong></li><li><strong>Q2 Guidance: Street expectations for Q2 margins are for ~38.7% vs 39.4% last year.</strong></li></ul><p><strong>iPhone 8:<br/> </strong></p><ul><li>The next area of interest will be any commentary on upcoming iPhone 8. Apple typically does not comment on upcoming products on their earnings conference call. However, it is expected that wireless charging will be included in iPhone 8. Any details on that will be of interest. Potential related wireless charging stock is: Energous (<strong>WATT</strong>).</li></ul><p><strong>Analyst Notes</strong></p><ul><li>Needham estimates revenue to $77.5B (up 2% y/y), Operating Income of $22.86B (down 5% y/y), and EPS of $3.22 (down 2% y/y). For the full year, FY17, they now project rev of $228.1B (up 6% y/y and 1% above previous estimates), and EPS of $8.98 (up 8% y/y and 0.3% below previous estimates). AAPL is their top stock pick for 2017, and the firm maintains Strong Buy and $150 Target Price. Sales by product: iPhone — revs of $53.04 bln, 78.1 mln units; iPad — revs of $6.7 bln, 14.85 mln units; Mac — revs of $6.45 bln, 5.25 mln units.</li><li>RBC said they have adjusted their Dec-quarter and FY17 rev estimates to reflect currency headwinds resulting from USD strength since November, partially offset by local price increases and f/x hedges. Also, firm's Mar-quarter adjustments reflect incremental production cuts that they understand AAPL has implemented recently to better manage their channel inventory. Firm's Dec-quarter rev estimate is reduced by ~70bps while EPS is lowered by ~0.05 vs. prior est. Notably, rev headwinds for AAPL could create GM headwinds as result of AAPL's USD-denominated costs, although hedges should partially offset some of the impact. Fundamentally, they remain positive on AAPL based on 1) potential for iPhone 8 super cycle, 2) continued growth in high-margin Services business, 3) new MacBook Pro product should revert Mac segment to y/y growth in CY17, 4) potential upside from Trump-onomics (taxes, cash repatriation), 5) attractive valuation (~8.5x EV/FCF).</li></ul><p><strong>Options Activity<br/> </strong></p><ul><li>Based on AAPL options, the current implied volatility stands at ~ 20%, which is 155% higher than historical volatility (over the past 30 days). <strong>Based on the AAPL Weekly Feb03 $118 straddle, the options market is currently pricing in a move of ~4% in either direction by weekly expiration (Friday).</strong></li></ul><p><strong>Technical Perspective<br/> </strong></p><ul><li>AAPL shares have outperformed the Nasdaq so far this year with AAPL rising by 5% vs a 4% gain in the index. AAPL tends to have 4-6% reactions to earnings. <strong>On a positive report, look for resistance near the $122.00-122.50 area, while support sits near the $119.00-119.50 area.</strong></li></ul></td> </tr></table>"