Список проголосовавших за комментарий " UPS Fourth Quarter Earnings Preview (116.64 -1.45)<ul><li>UPS is expected to report fourth quarter earnings tomorrow before the open. There is a conference call scheduled for tomorrow at 8:30 ET.</li><li><strong>Capital IQ consensus calls for EPS of $1.69 (versus $1.57 last year) on revenue of $16.994 bln (+5% YoY).</strong></li><li><strong>Guidance: The company is expected to guide for FY17 where consensus calls for EPS of $6.16 & revenues of $61.014 bln.</strong></li><li>Co's peer FedEx (FDX) reported earnings last month. The company missed on EPS and reported revenues in line. The company also reaffirmed FY17 guidance.</li><li>In late December, Holiday shoppers are projected to return 1.3 mln packages with UPS on National Returns Day and more than 5.8 mln packages during the first full week of January 2017. In 2016, shoppers returned more than 1 mln packages on National Returns Day and 5 mln packages during the peak returns week.</li></ul><p><strong>Key Points from Last Quarter</strong></p><ul><li>U.S. Domestic revenue increased 4.8% y/y, to $9.3 bln.</li><li>Average daily package volume increased 5.7%; Revenue per package increased 0.9%; Fuel surcharge rates reduced revenue per package growth by about 40 basis points; Operating profit was $1.3 bln and operating margin was 13.5%.</li><li>International operating profit jumped 14% to $576 mln, a record for any third quarter in company history. Volume growth in all products contributed to the improved profitability.</li><li>Revenue was $3.0 bln, up 2.2%; lower fuel surcharges reduced revenue growth by approximately 70 basis points.</li><li>Daily Export volume increased 7.1%, on double-digit gains out of Asia and high-single digit cross-border shipments within Europe.</li><li>Revenue per package decreased 2.8%; lower fuel surcharge rates reduced revenue-per-package growth.</li><li>Changes in trade lanes and product mix offset base rate improvements; Revenue growth was primarily due to the Coyote Logistics acquisition midway through the third quarter last year.</li><li>Weak market conditions in the Air Freight Forwarding and LTL (less than truckload) markets weighed on top-line growth.</li><li>Market conditions in International Air Freight and the U.S. truckload brokerage industries remain soft. Despite these conditions, saw increased loads in Coyote Logistics.</li></ul><p><strong>Options Activity</strong></p><ul><li>Based on UPS options, the current implied volatility stands at ~ 16%, which is 33% higher than historical volatility (over the past 30 days). <strong>Based on the UPS Weekly Feb03 $117 straddle, the options market is currently pricing in a move of ~3% in either direction by weekly expiration (Friday)</strong></li></ul><p><strong>Technical Perspective<br/> </strong></p><ul><li>UPS shares have outperformed the Nasdaq YTD with UPS increasing by 3% vs 2.5% gain in the index. UPS tends to have 2-4% reactions to earnings. <strong>On a positive report, look for resistance near the $120.00-121.00 area, while support sits near the $114.00-115.00.</strong></li></ul>"