Список проголосовавших за комментарий " Starbucks First Quarter Earnings Preview (58.60 -0.09)<ul><li>SBUX is expected to report first quarter earnings tonight after the close. There is a conference call scheduled for 17:00 (the company typically provides guidance in the press release).</li><li><strong>First Quarter Capital IQ consensus calls for EPS of $0.52 (versus $0.43 last year) on revenue of $5.85 billion (+8% YoY). </strong>The current consensus is within the company's guidance range of $0.51-0.52.</li></ul><p><strong>Guidance:</strong></p><ul><li><strong>The company is expected to guide for the second quarter where Capital IQ consensus stands at $0.46.</strong></li><li><strong>As far as FY17 guidance, the company expects ~2,100 net new stores globally. Mid-single digit comparable store sales growth globally. Consolidated revenue growth in the double digits (current Capital IQ consensus calls for rev growth of +8.4%).</strong></li></ul><p><strong>Metrics:</strong></p><ul><li><strong>Taking a look at last quarter, U.S. comparable store sales increase of 4% (versus 8% last year) was comprised of 6% increase in average ticket and 1% decrease in traffic.</strong></li><li>After adjusting for the estimated impact of order consolidation related to the new Starbucks Rewards loyalty program, average ticket grew 4% and traffic grew 1%.</li><li><strong>Looking ahead to the first quarter, the Street is expecting comps of +3.8%.</strong></li><li>The next area of interest will be margins. The Americas segment delivered both record operating income of $1.1 billion, and operating margin of 27.6% driven by strong performance in its businesses across the region.</li><li>Non-GAAP operating income increased 18% over last year to $988 million, while operating margin expanded 210 basis points to 26.9%. This improvement was primarily driven by sales leverage that was partially offset by partner investments.</li><li>Margin expansion in China Asia Pacific was primarily driven by the transition to a value-added tax structure in China, increased sales leverage and higher income from its joint venture operations.</li></ul><p><strong>Analyst Notes<br/> </strong></p><ul><li>Wedbush expects Americas comp momentum, accelerating CAP unit growth, a successful EMEA turnaround, and multiple CPG and emerging market opportunities to drive consistent mid-to-high teens annual EPS growth. Their recent checks of 5% of U.S. co-owned locations imply a FQ1 comp of ~4% in U.S., about in-line with 4% Americas consensus. Mobile order and pay, remodels and drive-thru additions, beverage innovation and seasonal LTOs, and food continue to be cited as drivers, while cannibalization remains the primary reason for a decline in sales. They model 4% Americas SSS growth in FQ1, composed of 1% tx growth and 3% avg. check; Outperform, $65 tgt.</li></ul><p><strong>Options Activity<br/> </strong></p><ul><li>Based on SBUX options, the current implied volatility stands at ~ 37%, which is 46% higher than historical volatility (over the past 30 days). <strong>Based on the SBUX Weekly Jan27 $59 straddle, the options market is currently pricing in a move of ~5% in either direction by weekly expiration (Friday)</strong></li></ul><p><strong>Technical Perspective<br/> </strong></p><ul><li>SBUX shares have outperformed the Nasdaq YTD with SBUX increasing by 6% vs 5% gain in the index. SBUX tends to have 2-4% reactions to earnings. <strong>On a positive report, look for resistance near the $59.25-59.50 area, while support sits near the $57.50-57.75 vicinity.</strong></li></ul>"