Список проголосовавших за комментарий "Дядя Митя, <br/> <a class="imgpreview" href="/uploads/2023/images/02/04/01/2023/05/29/a13bd092cb.png"><img src="/uploads/2023/images/02/04/01/2023/05/29/bab15ebeef.webp"/></a><br/> <br/> <p>Last Thursday’s smaller-than-consensus US gas storage build reported by the EIA<br/> nexacerbated a short-covering-driven rally in Henry Hub that started the week prior, when the US rig count reportedly dropped by 16, the largest one-week drop in more than seven years. US gas is trading 18% up from a week ago at $2.59/mmBtu, with Cal24 also higher, though more modestly (+5%), at $3.59/mmBtu.<br/> From a high-level perspective, this sharp drop in the gas rig count is consistent<br/> nwith our expectation that producers will continue to respond to low gas prices by cutting investment, which we believe will help balance the market this year and next while gas demand growth remains limited. As we look at the geographic distribution of the cuts, however, we believe it’s important to stress a few points:<br/> 1. Not all rigs are the same. We believe the most important rig change to track is in the Haynesville basin, which has been the main driver of dry gas production growth in the US. In contrast, gas rigs in oil basins, where we saw arguably 7 of the 16 rigs dropped, have typically a much smaller gas yield than in gas basins, and a drop in the gas rigs count in these locations is often a reclassification from a gas to an oil rig. Rig drops in the Appalachia region are also not particularly relevant for the overall growth path in US gas in our view, as it is very common that Appalachia producers have to manage their volumes lower in summer vs winter owing to a combination of strong local seasonality of demand and bottlenecked pipeline take-away capacity. As a result, this small local drop in rigs (-4) is not inconsistent with that seasonal production management.<br/> 2. The current rig count does not yet point to production declines… To be sure, the drop in rigs in the Haynesville was still sizable at 5, but it does not yet bring production growth in the basin to a halt, which our equity research colleagues estimate would take rigs sustainably in the 50-55 range vs 57 currently. Further, while associated gas production growth from the Permian has been largely bottlenecked by limited gas take-away capacity, incremental compression capacity at the PHP and Whistler pipelines at the end of the year will provide room for more than 1 Bcf/d of gas production growth into 2024 — though we note we conservatively assume only +0.7 Bcf/d of sequential Permian gas production growth in 2024.</p>"