S&P500 фьючерс | SPX

This morning's Trader Bite at 16:00 MSK — *9:00 AM* Eastern US:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FWAGK_RbNQ

Падение сипи.Начало.

Похоже все ж дождались.Количество продавцов начинает перевешивать покупателей.Значит скоро обвал.Вчера был пост Тимофея, что количество красных свечей стало перевешивать зеленые.И это серьезный сигнал.Даже армагедон Василия не может больше удержать сиплого от падения.Одеваем шорты, осень-самое время!
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(US) Market Close Summary: Stocks end mixed as Treasury yields fall from 7-year high
Tue, 09 Oct 2018 16:48 PM EST

US Session
-(US) National Hurricane Center (NHC): Hurricane Michael upgraded to category 2; maximum sustained winds at 100 mph v 90 mph prior
-(CA) CANADA SEPT ANNUALIZED HOUSING STARTS: 188.7K V 210.0KE
-(US) Fed's Kaplan (dove, non-voter): I am glad US trade agreements have been renegotiated
-(MX) MEXICO SEPT CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 5.0% V 5.0%E
-(ZA) Senior ruling ANC party source: Pres Ramaphosa to announce exit of Fin Min Nene
-(US) Pres Trump accepts resignation from US Ambassador to the UN Haley
-IEA director Birol: could see further tightening in oil markets in Q4
-(IR) Pres Trump: At some point Iran will want to make a 'real deal'; will be discussing ethanol policy at rally tonight in Iowa
— (BR) Brazil presidential candidate Bolsonaro: I believe in democracy; I will respect election results
— (US) White House Chief Economist Hassett: we've seen a lot of progress on trade with Europe; hopes for an endgame where we work everything out with China
— (MX) Mexico Sept ANTAD Same-Store-Sales Y/Y: 6.1% v 5.0% prior
— (KR) Sec of State Pompeo: made 'real progress' in North Korea talks; can now see path toward full denuclearization

Europe
-(IT) EU Commission: Italy 2019 budget plan to be assessed after Oct 15th
-(IT) Italy Fin Min Tria: Govt would act in case of unexpectedly rise in bond spreads
-(IT) Bank of Italy Representative in Parliament on Govt fiscal outline: Remains a threat of a vicious circle over Italy's debt costs and repercussions for the real economy
-(DE) German Fin Min Scholz said to aim for tax policy that treats Britain like an EU member until end of 2020 — German press
-(TR) Turkey Fin Min Albayrak announces program to counter inflation: Price will normalize with stability on currency front
-(UK) Government spokesperson Slack: To put forward new Irish border proposal 'in due course'
-(IT) Bank of Italy (BOI) Director General Signorini: There are spread levels above which some banks will need to ask the market for help
-(IE) Ireland Fin Min Donohoe: 2019 GDP growth seen at 4.2% vs. 7.5% expected this year; to raise betting tax
— (IE) Ireland Foreign Min Coveney: still see strong chance for a Brexit deal; hope to get more certainty in the next 6 weeks; A no deal Brexit would be 'carnage'
— (UK) Brexit Minister Raab: Brexit talks with EU have intensified; Will not accept anything that threatens the constitutional integrity of the UK
— (IT) EU banking regulators are reportedly monitoring Italy bank liquidity levels more intensely than usual due to market turbulence but have found no cause for alarm — press
— (US) Pres Trump: doesn't like what the Fed is doing; I think we don't have to go as fast on rates

Corporate Headlines:
-PZZA lifts on Trian report
-Kroger slumps on downgrade
-PPG slides after slashing forecast
-EBAY lifts on activist speculation
-Tata Motors falls on poor sales report
— Pershing's Ackman discloses $900M Starbucks position (about 15.2M shares or 1.1% stake, bought at an average cost of $51/shr)
— Zygna said to see some takeover interest

Summary:
US stocks ended mixed after a day of choppy trading as the selloff in Treasuries took a breather to send yields lower, while international trade concerns and the Italian budget process restrained sentiment. The Dow lagged as a FANG-led bounce lifted the NASDAQ to outperform for most of the day. Industrials and materials slumped while energy names lifted on higher crude prices. The Greenback came off early highs, led by weakness versus the South African Rand after President Ramaphosa named a new Finance Minister.

Markets:
— Dow Jones -0.2%
— S&P500 -0.1%
— Nasdaq +0.03%
— Russell 2000 -0.5%

Markets:
— Dow Jones -0.2%
— S&P500 -0.1%
— Nasdaq +0.03%
— Russell 2000 -0.5%

Тревожный сигнал по S&P500


Первый раз я напрягся, когда S&P500 сделал серию из 4 дней почти не упав при этом. Дело в том, что 4 дня подряд индекс не падал с июля 2017 года.
Падение из 5 дней подряд последний раз было в октябре 2016 года и в июне 2016. На растущем тренде такие серии редкость и, как правило, они быстро заканчивались разворотом вверх. Потом S&P обновил хаи и тут же почти сразу последовала новая серия из 4 дней снижения к ряду. Серия повторилась еще раз. И сейчас в четвертый раз, но уже с усиленной амплитудой. Сегодня можем закрыться 5-й день подряд в красной зоне. 

Не скажу, что я сильно верю в подобный технический анализ, но в такой анализ я верю чуть больше, чем в тот ТА, о котором вы прочитаете в учебниках. Возможно, где-то здесь S&P500 проходит локальный хай, хотя, если честно, я предполагал, что до 3000 то дострельнем без больших остановок. Если отбросить эту рябь на дневном графике из обилия красных полосок, то аптренд выглядит вполне себе развивающимся, пока не произошло серьезного перелома вниз.

Кстати последний раз индекс падал на 1% 25 июня (106 дней назад)
На 2% S&P500 падал 6 апреля или 186 дней назад.
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Не получается у сиплово отрасти что-то

Боялся я что выкупят сегодня, ан нет

(US) Market Trading Hours Summary: Indices bounce after the open led by NASDAQ
Tue, 09 Oct 2018 11:11 AM EST

Summary:
US stocks opened under modest pressure once again with rising Treasury yields, trade concerns, and the Italian budget process all cited as risk factors holding back sentiment. The Italian 10-year yield reversed off the highs along with US rates as equity buying picked up after the opening bell. The Dow lagged while a FANG-led bounce lifted the NASDAQ. Banks and materials slumped while most other sectors moved up within the S&P. The Greenback came off early highs, led by weakness versus the South African Rand after President Ramaphosa dismissed the finance minister.

Overnight
— Japan Aug Adjusted Current Account:: ¥1.43T v ¥1.52Te; Trade Balance: -¥219.3B v -¥208.0Be
— China PBoC set yuan reference rate: 6.9019 v 6.8957 prior (weakest fix since May 2017)
— S&P: China recent RRR cut was not enough to boost select lending, did not signal significant change in monetary policy
— IMF cut its global 2018 and 2019 GDP growth forecast by 0.2% to 3.7% (first cut since 2016); risk of balance had shifted to the downside due to escalating trade conflicts and tighter financial conditions
— Italy's EU Affairs Minister Savona was confident that if necessary ECB's Draghi would prevent another crisis in Europe
— EU Chief Brexit negotiator Barnier expected to delay publishing the union’s blueprint for a post-Brexit relationship with Britain after signals of new concessions from Downing Street

US Session
-(US) National Hurricane Center (NHC): Hurricane Michael upgraded to category 2; maximum sustained winds at 100 mph v 90 mph prior
-(CA) CANADA SEPT ANNUALIZED HOUSING STARTS: 188.7K V 210.0KE
-(US) Fed's Kaplan (dove, non-voter): I am glad US trade agreements have been renegotiated
-(MX) MEXICO SEPT CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 5.0% V 5.0%E
-(ZA) Senior ruling ANC party source: Pres Ramaphosa to announce exit of Fin Min Nene
-(US) Pres Trump reportedly accepts resignation from US Ambassador to the UN Haley — Axios
-IEA director Birol: could see further tightening in oil markets in Q4
-(IR) Pres Trump: At some point Iran will want to make a 'real deal'; will be discussing ethanol policy at rally tonight in Iowa

Europe
-(IT) EU Commission: Italy 2019 budget plan to be assessed after Oct 15th
-(IT) Italy Fin Min Tria: Govt would act in case of unexpectedly rise in bond spreads
-(IT) Bank of Italy Representative in Parliament on Govt fiscal outline: Remains a threat of a vicious circle over Italy's debt costs and repercussions for the real economy
-(DE) German Fin Min Scholz said to aim for tax policy that treats Britain like an EU member until end of 2020 — German press
-(TR) Turkey Fin Min Albayrak announces program to counter inflation: Price will normalize with stability on currency front
-(UK) Government spokesperson Slack: To put forward new Irish border proposal 'in due course'
-(IT) Bank of Italy (BOI) Director General Signorini: There are spread levels above which some banks will need to ask the market for help
-(IE) Ireland Fin Min Donohoe: 2019 GDP growth seen at 4.2% vs. 7.5% expected this year; to raise betting tax

Corporate Headlines:
-PZZA lifts on Trian report
-Kroger slumps on downgrade
-PPG slides after slashing forecast
-EBAY lifts on activist speculation
-Tata Motors falls on poor sales report

— Dow Jones -0.4%
— S&P500 -0.1%
— Nasdaq +0.3%
— Russell 2000 +0.1%

Treasuries:
— US 2-yr: -1bps at 2.881%
— 10-yr: -2bps at 3.212%
— 30-yr: -2bps at 3.382%
— 2-10 spread: -1bps at 0.33%

Commodities:
— Nov crude oil $74.94, +0.9%
— Dec Gold $1,191/oz, +0.2%
— Dec Silver $14.38/oz, +0.3%
— Dec Copper $2.781/oz, +0.5%

Как купить SnP или Nasdaq

Хотел спросить совета у профи, как инвестировать сбережения в SnP или Nasdaq?

Сумма инвестиций небольшая от 1000 000 руб (15 000 USD).  

Фьючерсы на Америке требуют очень большой ГО. Мне хотелось бы без плеча.

Фондам не доверяю.

CFD? — вообще ни разу не покупал. Какие подводные камни? 

Может быть еще какие есть способы?
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Mike_Z,
1) Открыть счет у брокера который позволяет торговать акциями США
2) Купить SPY или QQQ

Как купить SnP или Nasdaq

Хотел спросить совета у профи, как инвестировать сбережения в SnP или Nasdaq?

Сумма инвестиций небольшая от 1000 000 руб (15 000 USD).  

Фьючерсы на Америке требуют очень большой ГО. Мне хотелось бы без плеча.

Фондам не доверяю.

CFD? — вообще ни разу не покупал. Какие подводные камни? 

Может быть еще какие есть способы?
читать дальше на смартлабе

This morning's Trader Bite at 16:00 MSK — *9:00 AM* Eastern US:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqO2J3EUIQk

SP500 - Double Top

Цель достигнута.

https://smart-lab.ru/blog/tradesignals/497739.php





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BARRON'S: Пока компании США выкупают свои акции, топ-менеджеры продают их рекордными темпами



08 октября 2018, 16:25
В этом году американские компании очень активно выкупают собственные акции. Это оказывает мощную поддержку бычьему рынку акций, в особенности потому, что индивидуальные инвесторы сейчас неохотно вкладывают деньги в акции. И действительно, розничные инвесторы со времен финансового кризиса не возвращались на рынок акций в сколько-нибудь значительном количестве.

Согласно данным TrimTabs Investment Research, публично торгуемые компании США с начала этого года анонсировали выкуп акций на 835 млрд долларов, что уже больше, чем рекордные 810 млрд долларов, зафиксированные в 2007 году.

В этом контексте стоит отметить, что топ-менеджеры этих компаний действуют прямо противоположным образом: продают принадлежащие им акции рекордно высокими темпами. Согласно TrimTabs, только в августе корпоративные инсайдеры продали акций на 10,3 млрд долларов. Это самый высокий показатель продаж для августа за последние 10 лет, как указывает Дэвид Сантши, директор по исследованиям ликвидности в TrimTabs. Предыдущий максимум в 9,3 млрд долларов был достигнут в августе 2017 года.
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по стопам Василия!!! готовим шорт SP500

SP500 SELL TIME ! by tryask on TradingView.com

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US Market Close Summary: Rebound in financials stabilizes slumping equities as investors contemplate rising rates.

US Session
-Bond market closed; stock volumes muted due to holiday
-(ZA) South Africa President office refutes earlier reports about Fin Min Nene asking to be relieved of duties
-(CL) Chile Sept CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.2%e
-(CN) China National Bureau of Stats (NBS) chief reiterates that could achieve its full year economic targets
-(US) Pres Trump: do not have any plan to fire Deputy AG Rosenstein — press
-(US) National Hurricane Center (NHC): Michael reaches category 1 hurricane and continued strengthening is expected

Europe
-(UK) May's Spokesman Slack: there remain big issues to be resolved with EU on Brexit
-(NL) ECB's Knot (Netherlands): Reiterates view that General Council comfortable with current guidance on interest rates
-(IL) ISRAEL CENTRAL BANK (BOI) LEAVES BASE RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.10%; AS EXPECTED
-(US) National Hurricane Center (NHC): Michael reaches category 1 hurricane and continued strengthening is expected
-(IT) Italian Chamber of Deputies Speaker Fico: Not concerned about market or dialogue with EU on budget
-(IT) Italy's Savona: Believes Italy GDP can grow 2% in 2019, 3% in 2020
— ECB's Villeroy: Italy mix of high debt and weak growth is unbalanced — press interview

Summary:
Weakness in Asian and European stocks led to softness at the US open. The The tech-laden NASDAQ underperformed again while consumer staples fared relatively well. Financials were weak in the morning, but rebounded in the afternoon helping erase most of the broader market losses. Safe haven flows pushed core European rates modestly lower as Italian Treasury yields continued to rise. US Treasury futures were higher while bond markets were closed due to the holiday. The Dollar index pushed back up towards the 96 level putting modest pressure on commodities prices. Brazil stocks rose sharply and the currency firmed after first round of elections showed right wing populist Presidential candidate Bolsonaro had captured nearly 47% of the vote.

Corporate Headlines:
— SBUX names new CFO
— PPG announces 10% global price increase for automotive OEM coatings due to «unprecedented cost pressures»
-AXTA steps down
-Rowan and Ensco merge in $3.9B deal
-SON Implementing 6-10% price increase for rigid plastic packaging
-RPC.UK Issues H1 trading update: H1 Rev £1.9B +3% y/y (organically); Margins and Op profit remain in line with expectations
-LTG.UK Places 31.3M shares at 130p/shr on behalf of holders
-Google: glitch exposed private data of at least hundreds of thousands of Google+ users over 3 years; Google chose not to disclose the issue, found no evidence of misuse — press

— Dow Jones +0.2%
— S&P500 -0.0%
— Nasdaq -0.7%
— Russell 2000 -0.0%

Treasuries:
— Markets closed for Columbus Day

Commodities:
— Nov crude oil $74.22, -0.2%
— Dec Gold $1,192/oz, -1.1%
— Dec Silver $14.41/oz, -1.6%
— Dec Copper $2.76/oz, +0.2%

-After Market Movers-
— BLKB Cuts guidance
— AFMD Places phase 1 program on clinical hold due to 3 adverse events including a death