U.S. Warns of Risk That Russia Moves Against Ukraine Next Week

By Alberto Nardelli and Jennifer Jacobs

The U.S. believes Russia could take offensive military action or attempt to spark a conflict inside Ukraine as early as next week, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said. 

Conflict “could begin during the Olympics despite a lot of speculation that it could only happen after” the Winter Games end, Sullivan told reporters at the White House on Friday. “What we can say is that there is a credible prospect that a Russian military action would take place even before the end of the Olympics.”

A Russian attack would likely begin with aerial bombing and missile attacks that would cause widespread civilian casualties, Sullivan said, encouraging Americans in Ukraine to leave as soon as feasible. 

The actions by Russia could include causing a provocation in the Donbas region, where Ukraine’s military has been fighting for years against separatists backed by Moscow, or attacking the country’s capital, Kyiv, officials familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified speaking about such a sensitive topic. They said any action could start as soon as Tuesday.

Either move would represent a dramatic escalation after months of tensions over Russia’s military buildup near the Ukraine border. The U.S. and other nations estimate Russia now has 130,000 troops in the area. Any action inside Ukraine risks setting off the biggest conflict on European territory since World War II. 

The biggest unknown remains the intentions of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The U.S. does not know whether Putin has decided to implement such plans, people familiar with the matter said. In addition, the U.S. has not shared evidence underlining the assessments, they said.

The U.S. shared its assessment with key allies on Friday, according to multiple people familiar with the matter. On Friday, several countries moved to withdraw embassy staff from Kyiv, as well as advise citizens to avoid Ukraine and, if there, to leave the country.

U.S. told allies last Autumn that Russia had plans to build up troop numbers and military capabilities near Ukraine’s borders. Much of that assessment has come to pass.

Russia has repeatedly rejected charges it plans to invade Ukraine, accusing NATO of threatening its security by considering Ukrainian membership in the military alliance. On Thursday, tens of thousands of Russian troops began exercises with the Belarus military just miles from the Ukraine border. 

Russia Starts Military Drills in Belarus as NATO Watches

The U.S. warned previously that a Russian attack on Ukraine could come later in February, but the latest statements from Sullivan suggest a shifting view that if Moscow does plan to act, it may not wait that long. 

Explainer: Why Russia-Ukraine Tensions Are So Hard to Defuse

U.S. officials have also reiterated they don’t believe Putin has made a final decision on Ukraine. Recent U.S. warnings — including that Russia planned to fabricate an attack on pro-Russia separatists to justify an attack — have also not been accompanied by public details of the intelligence behind them.