Аналитик Adam Jonas из Morgan Stanley рассказывает своё мнение о ситуации в Tesla Inc.
- A distressed credit and restructuring story
- Could there be a worse time to depend on China to sell...robot...cars?
- No one really cares about debt; no one cares about the CDS—as long as you're growing. When you… When the… When questions are calling into your growth these numbers start to...start to be noticed.
- And I know it's heresy to suggest that you can compare the valuation of Tesla with its genuinely class-leading tech and brand positioning to Volkswagen, but you know, if the company's not growing, you invite yourself to those comparisons.
- Even at a *zero dollar* equity value, the enterprise value to sales ratio of Tesla would be fifty percent or so higher than a VW. It would be in the range of a BMW EV to sales. At zero dollars!
- Nevertheless, the CDS on Tesla I believe the five-year CDS this morning was 673 basis points. That compares to Ford Motor Company at around 200.
- All the other companies, they know they're never going to catch they rabbit, they just hope they're the fastest dog. Tesla's the white rabbit. But if it's attached to execution liabilities—and real financial liabilities—then what is the rabbit worth? Right?
- If demand does not recover, and one could argue that many signs in the fixed income market would tell you that there's questions to that, then this becomes a restructuring story. We think that, 'yes, that's right, Tesla, tech company, the auto industry's biggest restructuring story?' And people will begin to a— run scenarios about management—a management team that really went in there and cleaned house. What could they do to lower the break-even point? In terms of head count reductions or writedowns…
— For risk mitigation and liability containment, [Apple] may not want to expose themselves to the unlimited liability of being involved in *owning a business* where occasionally a car catches on fire...takes down a building…