Блог им. mio-my-mio

"Fiscal cliff" deal reached between White House

The White House and congressional lawmakers have reached a deal to avoid the «fiscal-cliff» that would delay harsh spending cuts by two months, Obama administration officials said on Monday.

President Barack Obama called Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House of Representatives Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, who both signed off on the deal, one source said.


01.01.2013, Вашингтон 07:25:08 В США «фискальный обрыв» (одновременное резкое повышение налогов и сокращение государственных расходов) предотвращен на два месяца. Об этом говорится в специальном меморандуме, подписанном главой демократического большинства в сенате Гарри Ридом и лидером демократов в палате представителей американского конгресса Нэнси Пелози, передает Reuters.

Соглашение предусматривает баланс между сокращением государственных расходов и повышением налогов, которое позволит отложить автоматический секвестр бюджета (резкое сокращение государственных расходов).

Половина сокращений придется на оборонные расходы, в то время как вторую половину изыщут из гражданских трат. Это не потребует голосования в конгрессе. В Белом Доме подобный компромисс считают своей победой.

В случае полномасштабного «фискального обрыва» дефицит федерального бюджета США может сократиться в 2012-2013 финансовом году почти на 500 млрд долл., что конечно же улучшит состояние государственных финансов. Однако столь резкое сокращение дефицита наверняка окажет шоковое воздействие на экономику страны и приведет к новому спаду деловой активности.

Предполагалось, что при отсутствии политических договоренностей «фискальный обрыв» наступит в США в 9:00 мск 1 января 2013г.


«Половина сокращений придется на оборонные расходы, в то время как вторую половину изыщут из гражданских трат»

Типа это не секвестр?

«В случае полномасштабного «фискального обрыва» дефицит федерального бюджета США может сократиться в 2012-2013 финансовом году почти на 500 млрд долл.»

Да им пох, Беня их подстраховал на 45 млрд. х 12 мес. =? млрд.

P.S. Другое дело, что может измениться баланс в политической сфере, тк от размера ставки будет зависеть судьба Обамы и др. демократов. Потому что размер ставки = размер дефицита бюджета


The budget deal struck by the White House and Senate Republican leaders, if it becomes law, probably would slow the U.S. economic recovery without stopping it.
The elimination of a 2 percent payroll tax cut, coupled with higher income taxes on the wealthy, will help reduce growth in the first quarter to 1 percent, from 3.1 percent in 2012’s third quarter, the latest data available, according to economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Bank of America Corp. The expansion will strengthen later in the year as the housing market continues to rebound, they forecast.

“It’s going to definitely present a headwind for the economy,” Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist for JPMorgan Chase in New York, said of the fiscal pact that the Senate planned to vote on early today. “We’re looking for a downdraft in growth in the first half of the year, with the economy coming back in the second.”

The first half slowdown will mean that the U.S. will make limited progress in reducing unemployment in 2013, according to projections by Ethan Harris, co-head of global economic research for Bank of America in New York. He sees the jobless rate falling to 7.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 from 7.7 percent in November 2012.



The Internal Revenue Service told employers to withhold taxes from paychecks assuming that lapsing tax cuts would expire as scheduled and said it would issue updated tables if Congress passes an extension.
Employers should implement the higher withholding by Feb. 15, the IRS said in a statement issued 12 minutes before midnight on Dec. 31.



Кобкина Лада, you're welcome :), с Новым Годом!

Теперь бы чётко оценить всё возможные варианты реакции рынков.
(CNN) — If a Senate deal to avert the fiscal cliff becomes law, all but a sliver of the U.S. population will avoid higher tax rates, some key issues will be put off for two months, and all sides in the battle will emerge with a mixed record: winning key points, while ceding ground on others.
The deal, which passed the Democratic-controlled Senate in an overwhelming 89-8 vote in the middle of the night, would maintain tax cuts for individuals earning less than $400,000 and couples earning less than $450,000. Technically, it would reinstate cuts that expired at midnight.
The bill faces an uncertain future in the Republican-controlled House. The House Republican Conference plans to meet at 1 p.m., two aides told CNN.
A decision about whether to vote Tuesday would likely follow that meeting.
Some GOP lawmakers, including Reps. Phil Gingrey of Georgia and Tim Huelskamp of Kansas, told CNN they won't support the bill.
«It's taxing, and still taxing, small businessmen and women, and I don't like that at all,» Gingrey said, referring to some small business owners who would be among those whose tax rates rise.
It's the opposite argument of some Democrats who oppose the bill. Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, complained that the deal «makes tax benefits for high-income earners permanent, while tax benefits designed to help those of modest means and the middle class are only extended for five years.»
The bill temporarily extends certain tax breaks, such as the one for college tuition, while making new tax rates permanent.
It would mark the first time in two decades that tax rates jump for the wealthiest Americans — giving some bragging rights to President Barack Obama, who has long insisted on such a move.
But it also leaves him breaking a promise. The president had vowed to raise tax rates for the top-earning 2% of Americans, including those with household income above $250,000.
«What I'm not going to do is to extend Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest 2% that we can't afford and, according to economists, will have the least positive impact on our economy,» the president said at a news conference in November, after being asked by CNN why Americans should believe he would not «cave again this time» by allowing those Bush-era tax cuts to be extended.
When asked whether closing loopholes instead of raising rates would be satisfactory, the president responded, «when it comes to the top 2%, what I'm not going to do is to extend further a tax cut for folks who don't need it, which would cost close to a trillion dollars. And it's very difficult to see how you make up that trillion dollars, if we're serious about deficit reduction, just by closing loopholes in deductions. You know, the math tends not to work.»
The deal passed by the Senate would cap itemized deductions for individuals making $250,000 and for married couples making $300,000.
Raising the threshold for higher tax rates to $400,000 shrinks the number of Americans affected. While nearly 2% of filers have adjusted gross incomes over $250,000, only 0.6% have incomes above $500,000, according to the Tax Policy Center.
Still, in a written statement early Tuesday, the president held on to the 98% figure he has so often touted.
The deal «protects 98% of Americans and 97% of small business owners from a middle class tax hike,» he said. «While neither Democrats nor Republicans got everything they wanted, this agreement is the right thing to do for our country and the House should pass it without delay.»
The president also acknowledged, «There's more work to do to reduce our deficits, and I'm willing to do it. But tonight's agreement ensures that, going forward, we will continue to reduce the deficit through a combination of new spending cuts and new revenues from the wealthiest Americans.»
However, many Americans are still likely to see their paychecks shrink somewhat, due to a separate battle over payroll taxes.
Senate vote 'sends a strong message'
«Glad it's over,» said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, after the vote on the fiscal cliff deal, just a couple of hours after the East Coast rang in the new year. «We'll see if the Republicans in the House can become functional instead of dysfunctional.»
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Senate would not take up legislation if the House makes changes to the bipartisan deal to avert the fiscal cliff, according to several news reports. «The House Republicans have two choices: cut their losses and pass the deal now, or else put up a fight they cannot win and pass the same deal a few days now after being further humiliated,» a Senate Democratic leadership aide said, according to the Hill newspaper. House Republicans are meeting to decide how to proceed on the fiscal cliff legislation. Many Republicans have said they would not support the deal and want to add more spending cuts and send it back to the Senate. House Democrats want an up-or-down vote on the Senate deal. House Democratic Leaders Nancy Pelosi said she was confident the deal would pass if Boehner allowed such a vote. She said a strong majority of the 192 Democrats would support the deal.


House Republican leaders have decided on a process that may allow an up-or-down vote on the fiscal-cliff deal that has passed the Senate. Rep. Steven LaTourette, a Republican from Louisiana, said in an interview on CNN said Republican leaders will poll their members shortly on two versions of a cliff deal. One would amend the Senate bill and add spending cuts, while the second would be a clean version of the Senate plan. After the discussions and seeing which version has the most support, LaTourette said the leaders will decide which version to bring to a vote. LaTourette, who opposes the Senate bill, said he thinks that the House will ultimately vote on the clean bill. «We've been beaten this fight, I am very sad there are no spending reductions in the bill,» LaTourette said.


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