Газпром- рекомендация CITI после отчета за 3 кв.
CITI после отчета рекомендует Гапром к покупке -целевая цена
First Reaction To 3Q10 Result: Good Numbers On Balance
Results Beat Consensus — Sales came to Rbl786bn, +2.9% to Interfax consensus, EBITDA was Rbl254bn, +0.9% to the street, and net income was Rbl159bn, -1.7% to the street. EBITDA margin was seasonally weak at 32% but largely expected by the street. The numbers look good on balance.
Higher FSU sales and lower custom duties explain outperformance —Outperformance at the EBITDA level vs. consensus is explained by higher top line, which in turn is explained by higher-than-expected FSU sales by +20% vs. Citi forecast, and lower effective custom duty rate -21% vs. Citi forecast. These two items suggest upside risk to our FY’10 Gazprom financials.
Opex comes in line with forecast — Opex was -0.6% vs. Citi forecast. While staff costs, lower taxes other than on income came in lower than expected, purchased oil and products and other operating costs came in higher than Citi forecast. On the cost side, we will have to wait 4Q10 results to get the normalised picture for the year.
Cash flow is high, so is capex — OCF came in at Rbl270bn, rising QoQ despite
3Q10 being seasonally weak and was much stronger than Citi forecast due to
much higher effect of adjustments of Rbl62bn. WC was largely unchanged QoQ.
Capex jumped more than 50%, matching the increase in OCF. As such, FCF was
close to zero.
The numbers look good on balance, supportive of the stock — We find the numbers supportive of our Buy rating, particularly strong cash flow generation and stronger EBITDA performance. We keep Gazprom as one of our 2011 top picks inthe Russian oil & gas sector.(выделенно мною )