BofAML’s 10-point Guide to 2014
1. Regime change in 2014…higher growth means we’re bearish rates, bullish
stocks, bullish US$ and bearish commodities…lower liquidity means lower Wall
Street returns next year compared to 2013 (Chart 1).
2. Red, White & BOOM…US growth risks to upside…long US dollar.
3. The end of Fed QE...10-year Treasury yields to rise to 3.75%...HY to beat IG.
4. The Great Rotation…bull markets in US real estate (+5% in 2014) & global
stocks (MSCI ACWI target = 444 in 2014) to continue, albeit with less
vigor…long US & Japanese stocks, neutral Europe, short EM.
5. 2014 sees the return of the Japan carry-trade… bearish Yen, bullish Nikkei.
6. Exporters in Japan & Europe now preferred until reflation/reform sparks
stronger Japan/Europe growth; big EM “buy” opportunity by mid-2014.
7. The faster the growth, the greater the risk of negative returns to financial assets
8. The slower the growth, the greater the risk of localized investment bubbles.
9. There will be blood…H1 risk correction likely…buy commodity & bond volatility.
10. Secular trends are forever…by 2023 the average $1,000 laptop will be able to communicate at the speed of the human brain; 25 years later, at the rate of the entire human race.
если кому надо — вышлю электрической почтой полный вариант