<HELP> for explanation

Блог им. OlegBykov

Fitch понизил рейтинг Китая


Рейтинг Китая понижен AA- до A+. Снижение рейтнинга страны  произошло впервые с 1999 г.  
 
  Причины:


  • растущий объем внутреннего долга со 125%ВВП в 2008 до 198%ВВП потребует вмешательства со стороны (country’s rising debt problems will require a government bailout) —  в 2012. 
  • растущие риски со стороны теенвого банкинга (growing risks from the rise of shadow banking).

The Financial times, April 10 2013

Вопрос: почему сми так спокойно реагируют? Почему в утренних обзорах уважаемых аналитиков это не рассматривается как фактор риска

вот полностью статья 


Fitch downgrades China as fears increase over soaring debt levels
By Josh Noble in Hong Kong and Simon Rabinovitch in Beijing
   China’s sovereign credit rating has been cut by a big international agency for the first time since 1999 with Fitch raising concerns yesterday that the country’s rising debt problems will require a government bailout.
 
   Fitch cut China’s long-term local currency rating from AA-to A+ yesterday, citing “underlying structural weaknesses” including low average incomes, lagging standards of governance and a rapid expansion of credit.
 
   It also warned of the growing risks from the rise of shadow banking and said total credit in China may have reached 198 per cent of gross domestic product by the end of last year, up from 125 per cent in 2008.
 
   China has faced concerns over debt levels since 2009, when state-owned banks issued a wave of loans to power the economy through the global financial crisis. This kept growth on track but inflated housing prices and saddled local governments with enormous loans.
 
   “Ultimately, we think China’s debt problem is going to require sovereign resources to resolve and debt will migrate on to China’s sovereign balance sheet,” said Andrew Colquhoun, head of Asia sovereign ratings at Fitch.
 
   Fitch’s rating is a notch below those of Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s, which both upgraded their views on the economy in late 2010. Fitch already rated China’s foreign currency debt as A+, which Mr Colquhoun said was “relatively high”.
 
   Beijing has waged a campaign to rein in the real estate sector, raising mortgage downpayments and barring people from buying second homes in the hottest markets. Partly as a result, last year China recorded its lowest growth rate for a decade.
 
   To prevent local governments from accumulating more debt, it has stopped them using financing vehicles to get around restrictions on borrowing from banks. But some analysts fear that a big rise in financing through the shadow banking system has damped the effect of those controls.
 
   Overall credit flows have stayed extremely strong, rising 23 per cent last year, even as Beijing capped the increase in formal bank lending.
 
   Fitch also said China had a “less favourable record on inflation management” than its A-rated peers, although data out yesterday showed a sharp drop in price rises in March.
 
   Additional reporting by Alexandra Stevenson 
 

это правда 7
avatar

егорка

они бы себе его лучше понизили
avatar

Maksa

это национальный) всем плевать)
avatar

DarkElf96

Henaris, спасибо. Тогда остается второй вопрос — почему ноль реакции?
и чего ждем почему не растем)
avatar

DGD

the__sniper,
Биржа пока закрыта до 10.00
avatar

Strij

Henaris, точняк
Henaris, итальянский кейс меня тоже удивляет.
Это как у япов — внутренний долг, номинированный в юанях. Всем по большому счету пох.)
avatar

Gloomy trader

Просто тренды движения создают не новости, а финансовые потоки...) УДАЧИ!
avatar

begemot01

begemot01, подписываюсь под каждым словом!
avatar

Genda


Только зарегистрированные и авторизованные пользователи могут оставлять комментарии.

Залогиниться

Зарегистрироваться
....все тэги
Регистрация
UPDONW